Crypto Markets on Thin Ice: Will the ‘Trump Put’ Save the Day?

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“Crypto Markets on Thin Ice: Will the ‘Trump Put’ Save the Day?”

Crypto Markets on Thin Ice: Will the ‘Trump Put’ Save the Day?

As the cryptocurrency market teeters on the brink of disaster, one question looms large: will the “Trump Put” be enough to save the day? The notion that President Donald Trump’s administration would intervene to prop up the market has been a comforting thought for many investors, but recent comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have cast doubt on this idea.

Bessent’s assertion that corrections are healthy and normal has sent shockwaves through the market, and the possibility of a recession has added to the sense of unease. With the 200-day average of Bitcoin (BTC) hovering around $84,000, the market is bracing for impact.

Meanwhile, memecoins, layer-2 tokens, and gaming tokens have been leading the charge, with BNB Chain trading volumes flipping those of Ethereum and Solana over the weekend. But can this momentum be sustained in the face of growing uncertainty?

As the market waits with bated breath for the Fed meeting on Wednesday, traders are on high alert for any signs of intervention. But with the bar set low after Chairman Powell’s comments, it remains to be seen whether the central bank will deploy stimulus to support the market.

On the derivatives front, the barely positive BTC and ETH perpetual funding rates signal caution, and several altcoins are seeing negative rates, indicating a bias for shorts. The BTC, ETH CME futures basis remains low near 5%, and short and near-dated BTC and ETH puts continue to be pricier than calls.

But amidst all the uncertainty, there is one thing that is certain: the crypto market is on thin ice. Will the “Trump Put” be enough to save the day, or will the market succumb to the pressures of a potential recession? Only time will tell.

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

  • BNB Chain trading volumes flipped those of Ethereum and Solana over weekend.
  • Decentralized exchanges (DEX) built on BNB Chain racked up over $1.7 billion in trading volume in each of the past three days as newer memecoins created trading opportunities for traders.
  • The PancakeSwap DEX processed over $1.2 billion of volume in the past 24 hours, helping to boost CAKE token prices by 30%.
  • The Mubarak (MUBARAK) memecoin emerged as the token gaining the most attention on X, gaining listings on platforms like Binance Alpha and exchanges such as Bitget on Monday.
  • It was introduced through the BNB Chain-based Four Meme launchpad on March 13, with an initial market cap as low as $6,000. That soared past $100 million on Sunday. The coin has no inherent utility beyond its meme-driven appeal, typical of many tokens in this category, relying instead on community engagement and speculative trading.
  • Data from DEXTools shows brisk token issuance activity on BNB Chain as of European morning hours Monday, although most new launches fail to break a $10,000 market capitalization or fall to zero as their creators pull liquidity from trading pools.
  • Meanwhile, BNB Chain’s BNB has gained 5% in the past 24 hours amid the renewed demand, beating a broader market fall.

Derivatives Positioning

  • The barely positive BTC and ETH perpetual funding rates signal caution and cast doubt on the price recovery. Several altcoins like XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, LINK and TRX are seeing negative rates, indicating a bias for shorts.
  • BTC, ETH CME futures basis remains low near 5%.
  • Short and near-dated BTC and ETH puts continue to be pricier than calls.
  • Top block flows in BTC options on Deribit featured OTM call selling and put buying.

Market Movements:

  • BTC is down 0.9% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $83,468.34 (24hrs: -0.23%)
  • ETH is down 0.67% at $1,910.26 (24hrs: +0.18%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is down 0.76% at 2,625.62 (24hrs: -0.33%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 3 bps at 2.96%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0075% (8.2% annualized) on Binance

  • DXY is down 0.14% at 103.57
  • Gold is unchanged at $2,996.63/oz
  • Silver is up 0.18% at $33.84/oz
  • Nikkei 225 closed +0.93% at 37,396.52
  • Hang Seng closed +0.77% at 24,145.57
  • FTSE is up 0.21% at 8,650.39
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.22% at 5,415.98
  • DJIA closed on Friday +1.65% at 41,488.19
  • S&P 500 closed +2.13% at 5,638.94
  • Nasdaq closed +2.61% at 17,754.09
  • S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +1.45% at 24,553.40
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed +3.83% at 2,432.92
  • U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 3 bps at 4.29%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.35% at 5,672.50
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.31% at 19,858.50
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.39% at 41,685.00

Bitcoin Stats:

  • BTC Dominance: 61.60 (-0.25%)
  • Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02289 (0.18%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 815 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $47.38
  • Total Fees: 5.22 BTC / $436,428
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 149,470 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 27.6 oz
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 7.84%

Technical Analysis

  • The bitcoin-gold ratio has collapsed to levels last seen in early November. The slide has penetrated the ratio’s March 2024 high, flipping it into a resistance level.
  • The 50-day SMA has peaked and is also trending south, looking to move below the 200-day SMA in a so-called death cross. That would signal a prolonged gold outperformance relative to bitcoin.

Crypto Equities

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed on Friday at $297.49 (+13%), down 1.91% at $291.80 in pre-market
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $183.12 (+3.17%), down 0.63% at $181.97
  • Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$17.98 (+8.18%)
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $13.18 (+8.39%), down 0.68% at $13.09
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7

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2025-03-17 14:37