What to know:
As a seasoned investor and crypto enthusiast with over a decade of experience under my belt, I find myself constantly amazed by the dynamic nature of the digital asset market. Today’s digest is a veritable smorgasbord of insights, from ETF flows to developer activity, all painting a vibrant picture of the blockchain landscape.
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed that the surging momentum of Bitcoin and Ether has encountered a hurdle recently. The unexpectedly high U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday has caused investors to adopt more cautious positions, thus bolstering the dollar as we had predicted. Additionally, there’s been growing apprehension about the Truflation index. Regarded by some as a more accurate gauge than government statistics, it surpassed 3% for the first time in over two years.
But guess what? Fed fund futures remain confident the central bank will cut rates by 25 basis points next week, and traders on decentralized exchanges, who have a knack for catching big trends, remain as bullish as ever.
The enthusiasm for Bitcoin is evident in the significantly high $64.8 million worth of active BTC call options on Derive, the top on-chain options platform. This figure is a striking six times greater than that of put options. Similarly, Ether traders appear to favor call options, as data from Amberdata indicates.
Additionally, it’s worth noting that funding rates for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL) on HyperLiquid, a well-known on-chain perpetual trading platform, are currently positive, although with some caution advised. These rates are significantly below an annualized 50%, indicating a cautious and not overly aggressive leverage level, despite the overall bullish sentiment.
In the wider market, the Avalanche network’s native token, AVAX, found it tough to break past resistance around $55, hinting at a potential “double top” trend in its price chart. This lackluster performance follows a significant fundraising event worth $250 million, which was spearheaded by Galaxy Digital, Dragonfly, and ParaFi Capital on Thursday. It’s important to watch for increased volatility as the highly anticipated Avalanche9000 upgrade is slated for release on December 16. This update aims to make the platform more cost-effective and adaptable for the creation of layer-1 chains.
In simpler terms, the LQTY token, which is associated with Liquity, a decentralized stablecoin lending platform that operates without censorship, paused around $2.45 after increasing by more than double in value over the past four weeks. This surge was primarily due to the launch of version 2 (V2) and a generally optimistic market atmosphere.
As an analyst, I didn’t observe any significant reaction from the Polygon ecosystem token (POL) when a proposal was put forth to deploy reserves of DAI, USDC, and USDT, which are essentially locked in the PoS bridge like cash under a mattress, into yield-generating strategies.
To conclude, a survey conducted by Vietnam’s premier digital asset exchange, Coin68, revealed that more than half of the respondents made profits from their investments in the previous year and 93.5% believe that an altcoin boom will occur in 2025. Developing countries may shift towards alternative investment options as a result of President-elect Donald Trump’s tariffs causing volatility in traditional currencies. However, this could also lead to local governments imposing capital controls. Therefore, it is essential to remain vigilant.
What to Watch
- Crypto:
- Dec. 13: Nasdaq announces its annual changes to the Nasdaq-100 index. MicroStrategy (MSTR), the world’s largest corporate holder of bitcoin, is widely expected to be added.
- Dec. 18: CleanSpark (CLSK) Q4 FY 2024 earnings. EPS Est. $-0.18 vs Prev. $-1.02.
- Macro
- Dec. 16, 9:45 a.m.: December’s S&P Global Flash US PMI data is released. Composite PMI Prev. 54.9.
- Dec. 18, 2:00 p.m.: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases its fed funds target rate, currently 4.50%-4.75%. The CME’s FedWatch tool indicates that interest-rate traders assign a 96% probability of a 25 basis-point cut. Press conference starts at 2:30 p.m. Livestream link.
- Dec. 18, 10:00 p.m.: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announces its interest rate decision.
- Dec. 19, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases third-quarter GDP (final).
- GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 2.8% vs Prev. 3.0%
- GDP Price Index QoQ Est. 1.9% vs Prev. 2.5%
- Dec. 24, 1:00 p.m. The Fed releases November’s H.6 (Money Stock Measures) report.
Token Events
- Governance votes & calls
- Arbitrum DAO has an active vote to allocate 22 million ARB ($22.8 million) to cover operating costs for OpCo, an entity it can use to create a more structured approach to governance. The vote closes Dec. 19.
- The Polygon community is evaluating a governance proposal that would see the deployment of $1 billion of its stablecoin reserve to generate a yield.
- Unlocks
- Axie Infinity (AXS) will unlock $6.4 million worth of tokens on Dec. 13, representing 0.52% of circulating supply.
- Starknet (STRK) will unlock $41.5 million worth of tokens on Dec. 14, representing 2.83% of circulating supply.
- Sei (SEI) will unlock $49 million worth of tokens on Dec. 15, representing 2.07% of circulating supply.
- Token Launches
- Binance announced that data sovereignty platform Vana (VANA) will release a token on the launchpool. Trading will start Dec. 16.
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
This digital fart is worth nearly $700 million.
The scatologically named AI agent token fartcoin (FART) has zoomed to over $670 million in market cap, lifted by gains in the general AI agent sector we discussed on Thursday.
This coin enables users to interact with the token by uploading funny memes or jokes about flatulence to earn tokens. It features a “Gas Fee” mechanism, mimicking gas fees from serious platforms like Ethereum, and some transactions emit a fitting digital sound, introducing an amusing extra dimension that others might describe as entertaining.
Some people within the community consider the token not just as a joke or meme, but as a significant cultural movement in the realm of cryptocurrency – an aspect that becomes even more amusing as its value increases.
Fartcoin originated in the online forum dubbed “Infinite Backrooms,” which was instrumental in birthing the initial AI entity, Gospel of Goatse (GOAT).
The concept originated from discussions between an AI named “Terminal of Truths” (@truth_terminal on X) and another artificial intelligence. This idea was presented alongside other methods for crowdfunding, such as token launches, within a broader discourse on funding diverse projects like filmmaking and environmental conservation efforts.
Derivatives Positioning
- BTC and ETH calls continue to be pricier than puts.
- Still, flows have been mixed in BTC, with uptake for $70K puts expiring in February and March.
- Speculative excesses remain at bay, keeping perpetual funding rates positive but low.
Market Movements:
- BTC is up 0.69 % from 4 p.m. ET Thursday to $100,468.14 (24hrs: -0.14%)
- ETH is up 0.83% at $3,899.63 (24hrs: -0.15%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 0.36% to 3,830.21 (24hrs: -1.1%)
- Ether staking yield is up 7 bps to 3.24%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.01% (10.95% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 106.99
- Gold is unchanged at $2,689.5/oz
- Silver is up 0.38% to $31.35/oz
- Nikkei 225 closed -0.95% at 39,470.44
- Hang Seng closed -2.09% at 19,971.24
- FTSE is up 0.11% at 8,321.32
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.44% at 4,987.3
- DJIA closed on Thursday -0.53% to 43,914.12
- S&P 500 closed -0.54% at 6,051.25
- Nasdaq closed -0.66% at 19,902.84
- S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.96% at 25,410.7
- S&P 40 Latin America closed -2.02% at 2,349.72
- U.S. 10-year Treasury is up 7 bps at 4.34%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.34% to 6,081.25
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.68% to 21,798.0
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.24% at 44,083.00
Bitcoin Stats:
- BTC Dominance: 56.47% (24hrs: +0.11%)
- Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.03888 (24hrs: +0.18%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 763 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $64.3
- Total Fees: 19.68 BTC/ $1.9 million
- CME Futures Open Interest: 196,355 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 10.64%
- BTC vs gold market cap: 37.4 oz
- Bitcoin sitting in over-the-counter desk balances: 422.9k
Basket Performance
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows the upside in Avalanche’s AVAX being capped at around $55, the resistance level seen earlier this month.
- A renewed decline from here would translate into a double-top bearish reversal pattern. Keep an eye on this.
Crypto Equities
- MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $392.19 (-4.67%), up 1.87% at $399.52 in pre-market.
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $312.96 (-0.27%), up 0.9% at $315.83 in pre-market.
- Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$27.45 (+0.59%)
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $22.58 (-2.97%), up 1.42% at $22.90 in pre-market.
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.33 (+4.76%), up 1.46% at $12.51 in pre-market.
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.54 (-2.02%), down 0.26% at $15.50 in pre-market.
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $12.33 (-3.9%), down 2.6% at $12.01 in pre-market.
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $27.86 (-0.11%).
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $71.84 (+11.33%), down 1.17% at $71.00 in pre-market.
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
- Daily net inflow: $597.5 million
- Cumulative net inflows: $35.14 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.121 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net inflow: $273.7 million
- Cumulative net inflows: $2.24 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 3.440 million.
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
- Solana leads all blockchains with the highest number of new developers actively exploring its ecosystem.
In the Ether
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2024-12-13 15:15