What to know:
- Bitcoin is trading around $73,500, roughly 10% below its recent highs, as on-chain data shows record long-term holder supply that may signal weak market turnover rather than strong conviction.
- CryptoQuant finds that short-term holder supply has dropped by about 2.2 million BTC since December and that more coins are simply sitting idle, with whale and institutional “dolphin” balances stagnating or contracting.
- Other indicators, including softer ETF inflows, subdued spot demand and prediction markets pricing in a narrow trading range, point to a market defined less by bearish selling than by a lack of new buyers.
Bitcoin was trading around $73,500 Friday morning in Hong Kong, according to CoinDesk. This is about 10% lower than the high of around $80,000 it reached earlier in the month. New data suggests a previously optimistic sign for Bitcoin may actually indicate a lack of interested buyers.
A record 15.8 million Bitcoin are now held long-term, but according to CryptoQuant, this doesn’t necessarily mean investors are strongly committed. It mainly indicates less activity in the market. With large investors pausing their buying and demand from ETFs and other big players decreasing, fewer Bitcoins are being traded, causing more to be classified as held for the long term simply due to the passage of time.
When a large number of bitcoins are held for the long term, it’s generally seen as a positive sign. This indicates that investors are buying and holding onto bitcoin, which reduces the number of coins available for trading.
In a strong, growing market, new investors typically step in to buy from those who are selling, and then they hold onto those coins for the long term. This means the amount of coins available for sale decreases while the number of people wanting to buy increases, which usually leads to price increases.
CryptoQuant believes that a large amount of Bitcoin hasn’t been moved in a long time, combined with decreasing trading volume, is making the market more sensitive. This means even small increases or decreases in buying or selling could cause significant price swings.
The firm found that the amount of Bitcoin held by short-term holders has decreased by about 2.2 million BTC since December. Roughly 900,000 BTC of this decrease happened because Bitcoin held by Coinbase users became classified as long-term holdings after being held for more than 155 days. While this is mainly an accounting change, it supports the main idea of the report: increasingly, Bitcoin is being held and not traded.
Because fewer new people are buying cryptocurrency, existing owners are holding onto their coins for longer, becoming long-term holders. CryptoQuant believes this record increase in coins held by long-term holders suggests that activity in the crypto market has decreased.
The number of Bitcoin wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC—often called ‘whale’ wallets—is decreasing at the quickest rate seen all year, and their overall holdings haven’t really grown since February.
The amount of Bitcoin held by ‘dolphin’ wallets – those with 100 to 1,000 BTC – has recently grown much more slowly. This slowdown happened after reaching a high of 970,000 BTC in October 2025, coinciding with $3.4 billion flowing into Bitcoin ETFs. According to CryptoQuant, these dolphin wallets are mostly owned by buyers using spot ETFs and corporate treasuries, making them a reliable indicator of interest from institutional investors.
Other market indicators point in the same direction.
According to a recent Glassnode report, demand for Bitcoin has decreased, and the amount of money flowing into Bitcoin ETFs has slowed down from its peak. These capital flows aren’t strong enough to push the price consistently above the $78,000 level, which represents a key cost basis for many investors. Currently, Glassnode’s Realized Profit/Loss Ratio is 1.56, which is lower than the 2-5 range usually seen when a strong, long-lasting bull market is starting.
Experts predict Bitcoin will likely stay within a narrow range, rather than experience a significant price jump. A recent forecast on Polymarket suggests an 84% chance that Bitcoin will close around $72,000 to $76,000 on May 30th.
Despite Bitcoin remaining above $70,000, data from the blockchain, ETF trends, and prediction markets all point to a similar trend: a lack of new investment. It’s not that people are selling, but rather that current owners are holding onto their Bitcoin instead of new buyers entering the market.
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2026-05-29 07:39