When Prediction Markets Can’t Agree: The Problem of Event Identity

A new analysis reveals that fragmented definitions of the same event across prediction markets lead to price discrepancies and limit their effectiveness as global information aggregators.

![Synchronization is demonstrated across a range of frequencies-[latex] \omega_{1} = \omega_{2} = 0.8, 0.6, 0.3 [/latex]-with a fixed phase relationship of [latex] \pi_{1} = 0.5 [/latex], highlighting consistent behavior despite parameter variation.](https://arxiv.org/html/2601.01505v1/nuova.png)

![The system classifies Parkinson’s disease by fusing information from MRI cortical thickness, clinical assessments, MRI volumetric data, and demographic features, employing modality-specific encoding followed by symmetric cross-attention between cortical and clinical data, then sparse attention-gated multimodal fusion weighted by learnable parameters [latex]\alpha_{1}-\alpha_{4}[/latex] to generate a representation [latex]\mathbf{H}[/latex] for predicting disease probability.](https://arxiv.org/html/2601.00519v1/x2.png)