Cannes 2025: Hollywood’s Next Oscar Winner Revealed?

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For just the fourth time in its 78-year existence, and for the second instance in six years, a film that received the Palme d’Or at Cannes also claimed the award for Best Picture at the Oscars.

For “Parasite,” it was simple to consider its success as a one-time occurrence. Since “No Country for Old Men” (another film premiered at Cannes), a genre movie hadn’t received the Academy’s top honor. Moreover, no South Korean film had previously been nominated, let alone won, the Best Picture award.

However, the success of “Anora” this year hints at a potential trend, or possibly the unavoidable outcome of the Academy’s concentrated attempt to expand and internationalize their membership. This strategic move, inevitably, seems to favor non-English films and those from around the world in the Oscars. In essence, the renowned Cannes Film Festival, held annually in May on France’s Côte d’Azur, appears to be challenging Venice in terms of attracting movies that receive serious consideration by the Academy.

The change in power dynamics – specifically, defying the belief that premiering a film at Cannes could harm its chances during the Oscars, while debuting at Venice has historically boosted films such as “Birdman,” “Spotlight” and “The Shape of Water” for successful campaigns – makes today’s unveiling of the 2025 official selection twice as interesting. Could some of the films selected for competition potentially win an Oscar in the future?

Looking at it from another perspective, it might not be accurate to view the lineup of Cannes as merely a stage for award-winning films or box office hits. Instead, it serves as a distinguished platform for auteurs who create art beyond the pursuit of trophies or financial success. However, this change is undoubtedly a positive move for Cannes, which has been slow to update its official feed following the morning’s press conference, instead filled with congratulatory messages for the films in the 2024 Cannes lineup that have previously won international awards. The festival has faced a decline in major sponsorship in recent years due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Gaining Oscar prestige (and attracting top international stars) can help regain the interest of big brands.

The official selection for Cannes, like most festivals, is restricted by what’s readily available. However, Thierry Frémaux, the festival’s top decision-maker, has priority when it comes to movies aiming for their premiere in this setting – a staggering number of around 3,000 submissions this year. This information was shared with me by Jessica Kiang, a freelancer who contributed to the Berlin Film Festival team this year and expressed disappointment that Cannes picked one of her preferred films after it had already been invited to Berlin.

Not all films seek publicity. At one point, many Hollywood studios hesitated to premiere at Cannes due to the critical scrutiny that commercial movies sometimes receive, such as Kevin Costner’s poorly received “Horizon: An American Saga.” However, Tom Cruise is not timid; he’s back on the Croisette (where he showed “Top Gun: Maverick” in 2022) this year with the conclusion of the “Mission: Impossible” franchise, titled “Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning.

It’s clear that such a box-office hit isn’t likely to be an Oscar nominee, but there are 19 films (which could potentially increase to 22) in contention this year. Many of these movies boast American talent: Wes Anderson and his expanding cast will present “The Phoenician Scheme,” Ari Aster offers “Eddington,” a Western film, Kelly Reichardt has the art heist movie “The Mastermind,” and Richard Linklater is honoring the French New Wave with “Nouvelle Vague” – a movie detailing the making of Jean-Luc Godard’s “Breathless.” (A visual representation of this film can be seen below.)

Shortly following a press conference in Paris, Spike Lee shared on social media that he too had received an invitation. He declared his film “Highest 2 Lowest” (a reinterpretation of Akira Kurosawa’s “High and Low,” and a possible improvement over his “Old Boy” adaptation) would be screened outside the competition. It seems as though Lee may have once again rushed things with Cannes, given how he prematurely revealed the winner of the 2021 awards ceremony when serving as jury president.

Among the competitors this year, Reichardt is one of only six women. While this number is commendable, it’s still a significant departure from the gender parity called for in 2016 under the #5050×2020 initiative. Julia Ducournau, who won the Palme d’Or four years ago with “Titane,” is back this year with “Alpha.” This film boasts two of the greatest actors of their generation, Golshifteh Farahani and Tahar Rahim. It’s the movie I’m most looking forward to, despite the fact that Ducournau’s style can sometimes be too extreme for my personal preference (though it will be challenging to surpass Coralie Fargeat’s “The Substance” in terms of extremity from last year).

When it was time to present Un Certain Regard (the section dedicated to newer directors and more innovative work, featuring the debut films of Harris Dickinson and Scarlett Johansson), Frémaux spoke about a return to genre cinema in the chosen movies. However, this trend appears less prominent in the main competition, where new works from established filmmakers like Jafar Panahi (“It Was Just an Accident”) and the Dardenne brothers (“Young Mothers”) coexist with lesser-known names, some of whom I must admit I’m not familiar with (such as Carla Simon and Oliver Laxe from Spain).

In my view, I find it refreshing that the Cannes selection team seems to be venturing beyond the expected, opting for unique pieces instead of predictable choices. It’s thrilling to envision the masterpieces that established filmmakers might be working on next. Among those I eagerly anticipate are Chie Hayakawa’s second feature (“Renoir”), following her acclaimed “Plan 75” and Camera d’Or win in 2022, as well as the new works from Kleber Mendonça Filho (“The Secret Agent”) and Joachim Trier (“Sentimental Value”). Each of these directors has a knack for creating captivating stories that leave an indelible impact.

Without even seeing them, I’d wager that all three are strong contenders for the Oscars. However, I must admit my knowledge on such matters is limited. A year ago, it would have seemed implausible that Netflix would invest over $50 million to promote “Emilia Pérez” as an Oscar front-runner. (At Cannes, where the identity-crisis musical debuted, it was not being hailed as the best of anything.) This year, I find myself intrigued by Chilean director Sebastián Lelio’s new politically charged musical titled “The Wave.” I can’t wait to learn more about this one.

I can’t wait to catch Sylvain Chomet’s latest animated masterpiece, “A Magnificent Life,” a biopic of Marcel Pagnol, set to premiere at Cannes. Last year, Frémaux took a bold step by including Michel Hazanavicius’ Holocaust-themed film “The Most Precious of Cargoes” in the competition. I found that movie quite impressive and rather presumptuously speculated it might win the Oscar (for best animated feature), mainly due to its subject matter. I would have never guessed that the under-the-radar Latvian production “Flow,” which debuted in Un Certain Regard, would leave such a lasting impact on the Academy.

Following the numerous Oscar victories for films like “Anora,” “Emilia Pérez,” “Flow” and “The Substance,” along with a less than impressive Razzie performance by Francis Ford Coppola’s “Megalopolis,” it’s clear that this year’s film selections have sparked significant curiosity in Hollywood.

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2025-04-10 19:21