What to know:
- On this fine Monday, the crypto markets decided to rise modestly, like a stubborn mule, alongside U.S. equities. The CoinDesk 20 index, bless its heart, gained a modest 2.4% over the past 24 hours, while Bitcoin (BTC) strutted around at a cool $84,000.
- But hold your horses! LMAX’s Joel Kruger, the ever-cautious seer, warns that a sustained correction for U.S. equities could drag our dear BTC down to the March 2024 top range of $73,000-$74,000. Oh, the drama! 🎭
- While the markets are all but certain the Fed will keep interest rates steady this week, David Duong from Coinbase suggests that policymakers might just pause or stop the central bank’s balance sheet runoff. Because who doesn’t love a good pause? 💤
As the sun rose on Monday, crypto markets climbed higher, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading above $84,000, riding the coattails of another positive day for U.S. stocks. The largest cryptocurrency was up, and the broader crypto market was up 1.8%, while the CoinDesk 20 Index, bless its little heart, outperformed with a 2.4% advance. Ethereum‘s ether (ETH) decided to stabilize above $1,900, up 2.8%, while several altcoin majors like SUI, AAVE, ICP, and NEAR decided to throw a party, each booking more than 5% gains. 🎉
Solana, not wanting to be left out, edged 3% higher, even though the first day of SOL futures trading on the institutional-focused marketplace CME didn’t quite set the world on fire. Talk about a damp squib! 💨
Ethena’s governance token (ENA) rallied a whopping 7% on the news of developing a proprietary blockchain with tokenized asset issuer Securitize, aiming to connect decentralized finance (DeFi) and traditional institutions. Because why not mix oil and water? 🛢️💧
Key U.S. stock indexes, extending their bounce into this week, provided a favorable backdrop for risk assets. However, our friend Joel Kruger warned that the monthly S&P 500 chart suggests a sustained correction for U.S. equities, which could weigh heavily on cryptocurrencies. It’s like a dark cloud looming over a picnic. ☁️
“When we consider the state of global trade tension and concerns around a slowdown in the US economy, all at a time when it’s increasingly uncertain how much more accommodation the Fed can offer, there is indeed worry stocks could fall further,” Kruger said, sounding like a prophet of doom. 📉
He noted there’s a potential for a lower low for BTC to revisit the 2024 March peak at $73,000-$74,000. Just what we needed, right?
The market, in a near-universal agreement, expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged during this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. But investors should keep an eye on any potential change in the central bank’s balance sheet runoff, or quantitative tightening (QT) program, said David Duong, head of research at Coinbase Institutional. Because who doesn’t love a good cliffhanger? 📚
“We think the Fed might pause or end its QT program this week, as bank reserve levels are near the 10-11% of GDP levels that are commonly considered sufficient for maintaining financial stability,” he wrote in a Monday report. Sounds like a plan, right?
He said the recent crypto selloff was largely due to macro concerns and deteriorating liquidity conditions, which could turn for the better during the next quarter, providing a tailwind for asset prices. “Crypto prices could find their bottom in the next few weeks before rebounding to new highs later this year,” he concluded, leaving us all on the edge of our seats. 🎢
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2025-03-18 00:38