Bitcoin’s Rollercoaster: Why You Shouldn’t Hold Your Breath! 🎢💰

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What to know:

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

In the grand theater of crypto, where fortunes are made and lost faster than a politician’s promise, the market has found a moment of calm. Bitcoin, that elusive digital gold, flirted with the 200-day moving average, peaking at a staggering $84,000. Ah, but Wednesday’s CPI report, softer than a marshmallow, has given traders a glimmer of hope, suggesting that the Federal Reserve might just be in a generous mood with interest rate cuts this year. 🎉

In the last 24 hours, the memecoin brigade led the charge, followed closely by the layer-1 and layer-2 tokens, and even AI tokens decided to join the party. Who knew that digital puppies and robots could be so influential? 🐶🤖

Yet, lurking in the shadows are the specters of President Trump’s tariffs, recession fears, and the bond market’s wild antics, casting a pall over this fragile recovery. But fear not, dear reader, for two factors suggest that the party might just continue. 🎈

First, we have the quarter-end rebalancing. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are down 6% and 4.8% respectively, while the 10-year Treasury note is up 5%. Funds, like a well-trained circus, must maintain their balance, and as the quarter draws to a close, they will likely sell bonds and buy equities. This could send bond yields and stock prices soaring, and who knows, maybe Bitcoin will ride that wave too! 🌊

Secondly, the yen is feeling the heat. CoinDesk has pointed out that the Japanese currency is under pressure, which could lead to renewed stability in the crypto market. The yen, once a safe haven, may find itself in a bit of a pickle as U.S. bond yields rise. Risk-off sentiment from the yen’s strength might just be taking a breather. 🍵

And let’s not forget about global liquidity, which is like the oil that keeps this financial machine running. “Net global liquidity is increasing,” says Two Prime, an SEC-registered investment adviser, in a chat that sounds suspiciously like a group therapy session. As the U.S. gets its inflation under control, it might just ease the pressure on other central banks. 🛠️

But beware, traders! Volatility is lurking, as Deribit’s BTC options market shows significant negative dealer gamma between $81,000 and $87,000. Dealers are like cats on a hot tin roof, trading in the direction of the market to keep their exposure neutral, which only adds to the price swings. 🎢

Today, the U.S. will unveil the February producer price index (PPI) report and weekly jobless claims. A hotter-than-expected PPI could inject some much-needed drama into the risk assets. Stay alert! 👀

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

  • The cost of missing out on potential airdrops has been massive for potential recipients in the U.S., according to a Thursday report by Dragonfly Capital.
  • Up to 5.2 million American crypto users have been excluded from airdrops, missing out on an estimated $3.49 billion to $5.02 billion in token value, based on broader data. Ouch! 💸
  • That’s just the tip of the iceberg: 22%–24% of active crypto wallets are American, but they’ve been systematically cut off. The U.S. government lost out too, with $418 million to $1.1 billion in federal tax revenue gone, plus $107 million to $284 million in state taxes. Talk about a double whammy! 💥
  • Regulatory confusion in the U.S. forced crypto projects to play it safe. Many blocked U.S. participants outright, moved their operations to other countries, or tweaked their airdrop designs to dodge potential lawsuits or penalties. 🏃‍♂️💨
  • This created a big divide: While crypto adoption exploded worldwide, the U.S. lagged behind. Projects didn’t want to risk breaking unclear rules, so they ge

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2025-03-13 14:19