Bitcoin’s Dramatic Plunge: Is It Time to Panic or Just Laugh? 😂

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Ah, Bitcoin! The fickle friend who dances on the edge of reason, now finds itself at a crossroads, teetering precariously on the brink of despair. It has recently taken a nosedive, testing the waters of support levels like a cat testing a bath—hesitant and full of dread.

While the short-term momentum resembles a deflated balloon, the long-term on-chain metrics whisper sweet nothings, hinting at whether this correction is merely a hiccup or the beginning of a melodramatic tragedy.

Technical Analysis

By Edris Derakhshi

The Daily Chart

On the daily chart, our dear BTC has officially broken below the 200-day moving average, a significant milestone akin to a tragic hero’s fall from grace, hovering around the $88K mark. This breach follows weeks of indecision, with multiple rejections from the $88K–$92K resistance zone, much like a suitor turned away at the door.

Currently, it flutters around the $77K–$78K range, just above a strong demand zone near $74K, like a tightrope walker above a pit of alligators. The RSI has dipped into the oversold region, suggesting bearish momentum, yet hinting at potential exhaustion—perhaps it needs a good cup of tea and a long rest. Should $74K fail to hold, the next significant support is around $68K, while a recovery above $80K could open the door for another test of $84K, and eventually, the elusive 200 DMA.

The 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour timeframe reveals a clearer picture of this recent breakdown. After weeks of consolidation within a rising channel, BTC has decisively broken to the downside, triggering a wave of liquidations and a collective gasp of fear from its followers.

The price briefly plummeted to $74K before bouncing back, retesting the $80K resistance level. That rejection has resulted in a lower high, reinforcing short-term bearish control. The RSI is beginning to recover from its deep slumber in oversold territory, but the structure still favors sellers unless BTC can flip $80K back into support and reclaim the $82K–$84K zone. 🥴

On-Chain Analysis

By Edris Derakhshi

Adjusted SOPR (aSOPR – EMA 30)

The Adjusted SOPR remains slightly above the neutral threshold at around 1.1, indicating that, on average, holders are still selling their BTC at a profit. However, the downtrend in aSOPR is notable, suggesting that profitability across the network is shrinking—like a balloon losing air at a child’s birthday party. If this trend continues and aSOPR approaches or dips below 1, it could reflect growing capitulation and short-term bearish sentiment.

For now, though, the market hasn’t entered full loss realization territory, leaving room for further downside pressure before a potential bottoming scenario. Investors should now watch for how quickly aSOPR stabilizes. Holding above one could support a swift rebound, while a drop below it may signal broader risk-off behavior. 🧐

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2025-04-09 14:17