Bitcoin’s Desperate Dance with War and Debasement!

by

What the Wretched Must Understand:

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The conflict between U.S., Israel and Iran remains the day’s biggest story as the attacks intensify and spread. A spectacle of chaos, where every bomb is a metaphor for the crumbling of human dignity.

Markets, ever the cautious specters, retreated into their shells, sending oil prices spiraling upwards like a desperate prayer to the heavens. Bitcoin dropped to $66,300, down 0.5% over 24 hours, having hit a high of $68,000 over the weekend. The CoinDesk 20 Index fell over 2%, signaling broader losses in the crypto market and futures tied to the S&P 500 index lost 1%. A dance of despair, where every tick is a step closer to the abyss.

Looking past the headlines and panic, the war could only strengthen the “debasement trade,” a strategy in which investors rotate into scarce-supply assets like gold and bitcoin in anticipation of a decline in the value of fiat (paper) currencies. A sacred ritual of survival, where the wealthy hoard gold while the poor are left with promises of paper.

Governments in the U.S. and elsewhere already owe more than they generate in economic growth. Their finances will only worsen the longer the war drags on. In such situations, governments don’t collect enough in taxes. Instead, they force central banks to “print money” through bond purchases or quantitive easing (QE) to monetize debt. This floods fiat supply and dilutes purchasing power. Hello debasement. A cruel joke played on the masses, where the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.

Traders front-run that process by loading up on store-of-value assets like gold and BTC. The yellow metal has been on a tear for over a year mainly on debasement flows. BTC did not participate back then. But now, having nearly halved to under $67,000 since October, it looks oversold. The possibility of the debasement trade catalyzing a bounce in the largest cryptocurrency cannot be ruled out. A glimmer of hope for the desperate, though it may be as fleeting as a candle in a storm.

Besides, historically the Fed turns dovish with liquidity easing during geopolitical stress, supporting asset prices, as Maelstrom Fund’s CIO Arthur Hayes noted in his blog post. A benevolent god, or so they claim, sprinkling liquidity like confetti at a funeral.

Let’s see how things unfold. In the meantime traders need to watch headline risks and oil upswings. Stay alert! A call to arms for the financially brave, though bravery is a luxury few can afford.

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

  • Day 2 of 2: Crypto Expo Europe (Bucharest, Romania)

Market Movements

  • BTC is up 0.98% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $66,194.78 (24hrs: -0.35%)
  • ETH is up 1.48% at $1,950.67 (24hrs: -1.63%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 0.78% at 1,916.46 (24hrs: -1.11%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 1 bp at 2.85%
  • BTC funding rate is at -0.0011% (-1.2147% annualized) on Binance

  • DXY is up 0.64% at 98.23
  • Gold futures are up 3.03% at $5,406.80
  • Silver futures are up 2.64% at $95.75
  • Nikkei 225 closed down 1.35% at 58,057.24
  • Hang Seng closed down 2.14% at 26,059.85
  • FTSE is down 0.78% at 10,825.36
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.89% at 6,022.64
  • DJIA closed on Friday down 1.05% at 48,977.92
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.43% at 6,878.88
  • Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.92% at 22,668.21
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.47% at 34,339.99
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.82% at 3,741.78
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 0.4 bps at 3.966%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 1.04% at 6,817.25
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 1.42% at 24,650.00
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 1.11% at 48,458.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 58.63% (0.22%)
  • Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02944 (-0.18%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,068 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $29.01
  • Total fees: 2.55 BTC / $169,782
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 109,280 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 12.2 oz.
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 4.42%

Technical Analysis

  • The chart shows ether’s daily price swings with Bollinger bands, which are volatility bands placed two standard deviations above and below the 20-day simple moving average of the price. A visual of chaos, where the bands narrow like a noose around the token’s fate.
  • The gap between the bands has shrunk to $226, the narrowest since June 2025. A moment of tension, where the price could burst free or collapse into oblivion.
  • Volatility typically booms when bands narrow, which means the token could soon see big price moves in either direction. A gamble with the fate of the desperate.

Crypto Equities

  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Friday at $175.85 (-2.88%), -2.42% at $171.60 in pre-market
  • Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $83.44 (-4.32%), -3.46% at $80.55
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $20.59 (-6.15%), -2.19% at $20.14
  • Bullish (BLSH): closed at $31.39 (-4.09%), -3.73% at $30.22
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.94 (+5.80%), -1.23% at $8.83
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $16.29 (-4.68%), -2.70% at $15.85
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.97 (-5.62%)
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.95 (-4.69%), -2.01% at $9.75
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $39.88 (-5.43%), -3.61% at $38.44
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.20 (-2.39%), -2.25% at $9.97

Crypto Treasury Companies

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed at $129.50 (-2.92%), -0.39% at $129.00
  • Strive (ASST): closed at $7.94 (-3.05%), -2.39% at $7.75
  • SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.82 (-5.41%), +0.44% at $6.85
  • Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.66 (-12.88%)
  • Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.13 (-0.88%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$27.5 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $54.78 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~1.27 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$43 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $11.63 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~5.7 million

Read More

2026-03-02 15:24