Bitcoin’s Daring Dance: Trump, Tensions, and a $92K Cliffhanger! 😱💰

What to know:

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

In a most curious turn of events, the realm of risk assets, cryptocurrencies included, did indeed exhale a collective sigh of relief upon hearing President Donald Trump’s declaration that he would not hastily plunge into the Israel-Iran fray. Instead, he has chosen to dally for a fortnight before contemplating the addition of U.S. firepower to this rather tumultuous affair. How very considerate of him! 😏

As for Bitcoin (BTC), it finds itself languishing around the princely sum of $106,000, having ascended a modest 0.9% in the past day. The broader CoinDesk 20 index has also enjoyed a slight elevation of 0.77%. Meanwhile, in the more traditional markets, oil prices have taken a slight tumble of 1.7% after a three-week rally, whilst European stock indexes have risen, as if to mock the oil’s misfortune. U.S. equity futures, too, are slightly elevated compared to this time last Thursday. How delightful! 🎉

Trump’s remarks have effectively diminished the likelihood of U.S. military action before the month’s end, as predicted by the market Polymarket, reducing the odds from a rather alarming 70% to a more palatable 40%. Should one extend the timeline to next month, the odds now sit at 62%, a significant drop from 90% on June 17. One must wonder if the markets are now breathing easier or merely holding their breath in anticipation. 🤔

“While the immediate prospect of U.S. intervention in Iran may have diminished, the fact this is reportedly a two-week hiatus means it will remain a live issue for the markets going into next week,” remarked AJ Bell investment analyst Dan Coatsworth, as if he were the oracle of Delphi. 🧐

Despite the crypto market’s relative stability, analysts are not without their concerns. Glassnode, a blockchain analytics company, has suggested that the subdued on-chain activity may reflect a more mature market, one dominated by institutions engaging in large, albeit infrequent, transactions. How very sophisticated! 🧐

Conversely, a new report from CryptoQuant warns that Bitcoin could plummet to $92,000 or lower should demand fail to rebound. ETF flows have decreased by 60% since April, whale buying has slowed by half, and short-term holders have unceremoniously dumped 800,000 BTC since late May. One must remain vigilant! ⚠️

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers, and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. How charmingly bureaucratic! 🥳

Day 2 of 3: BTC Prague 2025
June 24-26: Blockworks’ Permissionless IV (New York)
June 25-26: Bitcoin Policy Institute’s Bitcoin Policy Summit 2025 (Washington)
June 26: The Injective Summit (New York)
June 26-27: Istanbul Blockchain Week
June 30 to July 3: Ethereum Community Conference (Cannes, France)

Token Talk

by Shaurya Malwa and Oliver Knight

Jupiter DEX has decided to pause all DAO votes until the end of 2025, citing governance issues and a need to reset its structure during a “critical period” for DeFi. How very dramatic! 🎭
Exec Kash Dhanda has lamented that the current DAO setup breeds mistrust and FUD, preventing the team, holders, and platform from working cohesively. A most unfortunate state of affairs! 😩
A new governance model will be introduced next year, aiming to “unify rather than divide” the Jupiter community. How noble! 🕊️
Staking rewards (ASR) will continue at 50M JUP per quarter, but no new DAO-funded workgroups or emissions will be created in the meantime. A rather stagnant pond, indeed! 🐸
The JUP token has dropped nearly 22% in the past month, and Friday’s governance news had minimal impact, with the price hovering near $0.40. How disappointing! 😢

Derivatives Positioning

Open interest (OI) across top derivatives venues remains stable, yet subdued relative to earlier highs. A curious phenomenon! 🤔
According to Velo data, respective OI sits at $56.73 billion, still well below the $65.95 billion peak seen on June 11. How the mighty have fallen! 📉
Binance has regained ground with $24.5 billion in OI, though this remains short of its previous $27.9 billion high. BCH stands out as a notable mover, recording the third-largest notional OI gain over the last 24 hours with an $83.4 million increase, following BTC and ETH according to Laevitas. Quite the spectacle! 🎪
BTC and ETH options positioning remains concentrated around out-of-the-money strikes, despite a minor expiry today. How intriguing! 🧐
On Deribit, ETH options contract OI reached a yearly high of 2.58 million, with most exposure set to expire on June 27. A ticking clock! ⏰
ETH skew remains heavily call-dominated at the $3,200 strike, while BTC interest is clustered between $100,000 and $110,000. How very strategic! 🎯
ETH’s put/call ratio stands at 0.43, and BTC’s at 0.63. Notional flows are similarly aligned, with top-traded contracts including 27JUN25 $2,600C and $100,000P, reflecting both directional interest and tail-risk hedging. A veritable chess game! ♟️
Funding rate APRs across perpetual swaps remain broadly positive according to Velo data, with BTC and ETH both printing 10.95% on Bybit and Hyperliquid. Binance funding is also elevated at 8.98% for BTC and 10.05% for ETH, while Deribit remains flat. How very stable! ⚖️
In contrast, BNB shows sharp negative prints (–22.73% on Bybit and –13.04% on Hyperliquid), hinting at short pressure amid falling dominance. A most unfortunate turn of events! 😱
Coinglass data shows $131.89 million in 24-hour liquidations, skewed 56% toward shorts. ETH led notional liquidations at $32.2 million, followed by BTC at $28.7 million. A veritable bloodbath! 🩸
Binance heatmaps reveal dense liquidation clusters between $106,000 and $108,000, indicating that recent price action cleared layered short positioning. How very dramatic! 🎭
BTC dominance continues to hover around 65%, and while short liquidations hint at squeezed leverage, directional conviction appears measured heading into the next major expiry window. A delicate balance! ⚖️

Market Movements

BTC is up 1.63% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $106,015.34 (24hrs: +0.98%)
ETH is up 1.85% at $2,554.74 (24hrs: +0.46%)
CoinDesk 20 is up 1.3% at 3,034.29 (24hrs: +0.76%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 7 bps at 3.05%
BTC funding rate is at 0.0071% (7.7451% annualized) on OKX

DXY is down 0.30% at 98.61
Gold futures are down 0.99% at $3,374.40
Silver futures are down 2.20% at $36.10
Nikkei 225 closed down 0.22% at 38,403.23
Hang Seng closed up 1.26% at 23,530.48
FTSE is up 0.44% at 8,830.90
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.80% at 5,238.57
DJIA closed on Wednesday down 0.10% at 42,171.66
S&P 500 closed down 0.03% at 5,980.87
Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.13% at 19,546.27
S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.20% at 26,506.00
S&P 40 Latin America closed on Thursday down 0.15% at 2,614.38
U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 2 bps at 4.42%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.24% at 5,967.00
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.25% at 21,666.75
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.21% at 42,098.00

Bitcoin Stats

BTC Dominance: 65% (0.25%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02407 (-0.08%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 864 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $53.25
Total Fees: 5.07 BTC / $537,039.75
CME Futures Open Interest: 154,500 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 31.3 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 8.87%

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin has reclaimed its monthly open following a successful retest of the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), signaling a potential shift in short-term momentum. The asset is now trading above Monday’s low and appears to be making a move to recapture the full Monday range. How thrilling! 🎢
If successful, this would open the path toward the Monday high near $109,000. However, the price is currently capped by the 20-day EMA. A most precarious position! 😬
For bulls to maintain control, it will be crucial for BTC to continue closing above the monthly open. A matter of utmost importance! 🐂
A decisive close above the January highs would further invalidate the prevailing weekly swing failure pattern, reinforcing the bullish case and potentially paving the way for a broader continuation to the upside. How very optimistic! 🌈

Crypto Equities

U.S. markets were closed on Thursday due to Juneteenth federal holiday

Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed on Thursday at C$26.65 (+2.03%)

Strategy (MSTR): closed on Wednesday at $369.03 (-1.64%), +1.1% at $373.10 in pre-market

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $295.29 (+16.32%), +1.03% at $298.34

Circle (CRCL): closed at $199.59 (+33.82%), +10.53% at $220.60

MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $14.49 (-1.23%), +1.73% at $14.74

Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $9.94 (+2.9%), +1.51% at $10.09

Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $11.9 (+0.08%), +0.42% at $11.95

CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.18 (+3.15%), +1.42% at $9.31

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $18.7 (+0.11%)

Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $31.94 (+11.95%), +8.39% at $34.62

Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $30.14 (+0.43%), +3.65% at $31.24

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

Daily net flows: $0
Cumulative net flows: $46.63 billion
Total BTC holdings ~1.22 million

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flows: $0
Cumulative net flows: $3.92 billion
Total ETH holdings ~3.98 million

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

Bitcoin dominance has reached 65%, currently trading near the upper boundary of a well-defined parallel channel that has guided the trend since mid-May. How very predictable! 📈