As a seasoned researcher with years of experience in analyzing cryptocurrency markets, I find myself intrigued by the current state of Bitcoin. The recent correction below $100K has left me somewhat concerned, but as someone who has seen the market swing wildly before, I remain cautiously optimistic about a potential bullish continuation.
Over the past week, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain its upward momentum beyond the $100,000 mark and has instead experienced a correction.
Yet, a bullish continuation can materialize soon.
Technical Analysis
By Edris Derakhshi (TradingRage)
The Daily Chart
Over the past week, the asset dipped below the $100K threshold on the daily chart and hasn’t managed to recover above it since. The $90K support area has kept the market stable, preventing any further decline, but the price still hasn’t broken through the $100K level and is being pushed back downwards instead.
If the price doesn’t manage to surpass $100K, it might lead us to a further drop around the $80K range within the next few weeks, potentially diving deeper.
The 4-Hour Chart
On a 4-hour scale, the Bitcoin situation seems slightly challenging. Lately, its price has breached the upward-sloping channel line downwards, which might indicate a potential reversal. Moreover, this downward break coincides with the retest of the channel’s lower boundary and the $100K resistance level twice.
Yet, both levels have held and pushed the asset lower, which could lead to a drop toward the $90K level and even lower in the short term.
On-Chain Analysis
By Edris Derakhshi (TradingRage)
Long-Term Holder SOPR
Instead of relying solely on technical and price analysis for understanding Bitcoin, it’s also helpful to examine on-chain indicators to gain a more comprehensive perspective of its inner workings.
As a researcher examining this graph, I’m focusing on the Long-Term Holder SOPR metric, which compares the profit realization of investors who have held their Bitcoins for more than half a year. The data shows that while profits are substantial, they haven’t yet surpassed the levels recorded when the market was hovering around the $70K range. This is intriguing, given that Bitcoin is currently trading near $100K.
As a result, it could be interpreted that long-term holders’ selling pressure is still insufficient to overwhelm the market, and the price could still rally higher in the coming weeks. 
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2024-12-26 17:47