Bitcoin is showing signs of recovery, potentially rising above $70,000, but some technical indicators suggest a price drop could happen soon.
Recent price movements are encouraging some to believe Bitcoin’s price will rise, but historical patterns suggest it’s still likely a good time to sell. This pattern has occurred throughout every major Bitcoin market cycle.
A Repeating 4-Year Cycle That Ends The Same Way
Crypto analyst Tony Research has been studying Bitcoin’s price patterns using weekly charts. His analysis focuses on the four-year cycle, a pattern that has historically been quite reliable for Bitcoin.
We examined data across three cycles: the first ran from 2015 to 2018 and lasted 1,431 days, the second from 2019 to 2022 and lasted 1,421 days, and the current cycle, from 2023 to 2026, is expected to last around 1,390 days.
Looking at the weekly chart with the Gaussian Channel indicator, we’ve noticed a consistent pattern in each cycle. It typically starts with a bounce back from a low point, followed by a strong price increase to new highs, and then a period where gains are distributed before a significant price drop.
Bitcoin has historically reached the high point of its price cycles in November 2013, December 2017, and November 2021. These peaks have generally been about four years apart. Following this pattern, the most recent cycle likely peaked on October 6, 2025, reaching a price of just over $126,000.
According to Tony, the current price fluctuations between $60,000 and $76,000 aren’t random; they indicate uncertainty as the market reaches a turning point. He believes this price range suggests we’re nearing a significant downturn.
Bitcoin Might Be In The Sell Zone
As an analyst, I’ve been watching Bitcoin closely, and historical patterns suggest a key signal has appeared. When Bitcoin previously fell below the upper boundary of its Gaussian Channel, it marked the start of a final sell-off. We’re seeing that same signal now, which leads me to believe we’re in a zone where a significant price drop could occur at any moment. Essentially, the market is likely nearing the end of this cycle.
Tony recently shared a Bitcoin strategy he believes has beaten most individual traders over the last four years. His method centers around how Bitcoin interacts with its 200-day moving average.
The strategy is to buy Bitcoin whenever its price drops below the 200-day moving average and continue buying as long as it stays below. Then, sell when the price consistently stays above the 200-day moving average for around 1,000 days.
Bitcoin has been trading above this average for quite some time now, suggesting it might not be the best moment to buy aggressively.
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2026-04-14 01:57