What to know:
- Despite the crypto crowd yelling “Buy Bitcoin!” from their digital rooftops, institutions are quietly sneaking off to the bond market like teenagers avoiding chores. 🏃♂️💨
- U.S. Treasury bills are the new “it” thing, proving that when the economy gets shaky, everyone wants a safe hug from Uncle Sam. 🤗🇺🇸
- With trade wars, recession bets, and corporate earnings playing hide-and-seek, the market is more volatile than a caffeinated squirrel. 🐿️☕
‘Sell bonds, buy bitcoin,’ screamed a social media influencer last week, as if they’d just discovered the secret to eternal wealth. But institutions, those stoic, spreadsheet-loving creatures, are not buying it. Literally. They’re too busy hoarding Treasury bills like they’re on sale at a Black Friday event. 🛒💸
As of Monday, the 11 U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs were on track to lose over $800 million in April. That’s right, folks, Bitcoin ETFs are bleeding cash faster than a vampire at a blood bank. 🧛♂️💉 February saw a record $3.56 billion outflow, and March wasn’t much better at $767 million. Meanwhile, Treasury bills are the belle of the ball, with institutions throwing money at them like confetti at a parade. 🎉💵
The three-month Treasury bills auctioned Monday drew so much demand that the bid-to-cover ratio hit 2.96. Translation: for every bill offered, nearly three times as many bids came in. It’s like a bidding war at an auction, except the prize is a piece of paper that says, “I owe you.” 📜💼
Why the love for T-bills? They’re liquid, low-risk, and perfect for collateral in the repo market. In other words, they’re the financial equivalent of a cozy blanket on a cold night. 🛌🧣 Institutions are parking their cash here because, let’s face it, the economic outlook is about as clear as mud. 🌧️🤷♂️
Meanwhile, President Trump’s trade war has turned Wall Street into a guessing game. Corporate earnings guidance is disappearing faster than free snacks at a tech conference. 🍕📉 BofA’s 3-month guidance ratio has fallen to 0.4x, its weakest since April 2020. And with U.S. recession odds now above 50%, risk assets are sweating more than a marathon runner in a sauna. 🏃♂️🔥
So, while the crypto crowd keeps shouting, “To the moon!” institutions are quietly whispering, “To the Treasury.” 🚀➡️📈
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2025-04-15 13:19