Listen up, crypto warriors and spreadsheet romantics: Sina, resident Number Whisperer at 21st Capital and proud parent of a brand-new “Bitcoin Cycle Model” (because nothing says Saturday night like data modeling), wants to calm your fragile, FOMO-addled nerves 🧘♂️.
The Bitcoin Cycle Model: Now With More Science!
So, fresh off the digital press, Sina drops a tweet (because pronouncements via carrier pigeon are so last bull market) on May 3, revealing his super-secret blend of old-school Quantile Modeling and a dash of cycle magic, shaken, not stirred. Yes, it’s proprietary, and no, you can’t have the recipe.
Basically, this model is like putting Bitcoin on the treadmill next to its younger selves and asking, “Bro, you still got it?”
Here’s what the chart’s flexing:
- Quantile Bands (1 and 99): The freakish highs and those delicious crashy lows 🍿
- Power Law Price Curve: Basically, the crypto equivalent of your friend’s fantasy football projections—looks cool, may or may not happen
- Cycle Model Curve (Orange): Historical average, AKA Bitcoin’s “mid-life crisis” lane
- Actual Log Price: The point where all of your Lambo dreams either die or are reborn 🚗💸
In a shock to exactly zero people who’ve ever seen a graph, Bitcoin is still marching to the beat of its usual, slightly unpredictable drum—just, you know, slower. “Diminishing returns,” they call it. In the real world, we call that “getting older.”
Less Wild, Still Alive
Sina, channeling his inner boring science teacher, notes: This cycle feels slower not because Bitcoin is getting lazy, but because it’s sobering up. Volatility’s down. It’s not you, it’s math. Between ETF launches, halving hangovers, and macro soap operas (Political drama? Please, this is crypto, not C-SPAN), a lot of that action happened early.
“We’re still on track,” Sina insists, to the collective relief of bag holders and meme creators everywhere. No, it’s not 2017. No, it’s not 2021. Yes, the fireworks are less “Fourth of July” and more “Tuesday night in Des Moines.”
Am I Bored or Just Maturing?
Turns out “boring” is the new “bull market” when everyone from your grandpa to your neighbor’s cat is loading up on Bitcoin ETFs. Institutions are here, the adults have shown up, and short-term stalls could just be the “dad bod” phase of Bitcoin’s growth. And hey, that’s not a bad thing (unless you really needed that Lambo by Christmas).
Moral of the story? Bitcoin isn’t lagging. Maybe it’s just growing up—and maybe we all have to, too. (Or not. You do you.) 🥲
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2025-05-04 15:55