What to know:
- Arthur Hayes loudly insists the U.S. Treasury, not the Fed, is the Wizard of Oz behind global liquidity and Bitcoin‘s fate. ✨
- He’s now calling Bitcoin at $1 million by 2028, presumably to make you regret all your life choices by 2029.
- According to Hayes, a U.S.-China trade deal will be as real and satisfying as a sugar-free Twinkie, while the true action is happening with taxes, not tariffs.
If you’re the kind of person who reads the Fed minutes for thrills, Arthur Hayes has some terrible news for you: you’ve been living a lie. In an interview with CoinDesk, Hayes—who never met a headline he couldn’t haunt—dismissed Jerome Powell as roughly as useful as Bluetooth at a Renaissance Fair.
“The real show is at the Treasury Department. Ignore the Fed,” Hayes quipped, channeling the spirit of your least favorite substitute teacher. As far as he’s concerned, the drama’s offstage, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent quietly staging liquidity buybacks while the rest of us scan Twitter for interest rate hints.
Why does this matter? Because all this liquidity has to go somewhere, and according to Hayes, it will slosh right into Bitcoin like cheap wine at a wedding buffet. Million-dollar Bitcoin by 2028: not a prediction, but a threat. 🍾
But if you thought monetary policy was spicy, wait until you get a load of geopolitics. Hayes, not exactly an optimist about international relations, thinks the U.S. and China are about to put on a trade-deal performance worthy of regional dinner theater. “It’s going to be a deal on the surface,” he sighs, as if he’s seen this all before, and he probably has (in a previous, more glamorous life as an off-off-Broadway understudy).
“Trump needs to prove he’s been tough on China. Xi needs to prove that he stood up to the white man.” If there’s a drinking game for international posturing, this is when you finish your drink.
China, master of enduring economic pain (see: zero-COVID, collective willpower, and mandatory karaoke), will take its lumps. Tariffs are political napalm, so instead—Hayes says—expect capital controls, new taxes, and, for flavor, the kind of forced bond swaps usually reserved for countries whose GDP is measured in weird fruit.
The goal? More money marauding through the system, but no politician ever wins by telling Americans to “just buy less stuff.” Long live consumption, short live the national savings rate.
China: Still Hooked on U.S. Assets, Like an Ex Who Can’t Stop Checking Your Insta
China’s not about to stop buying American assets, much as it might claim otherwise at summits and extremely long dinners. “They have to obfuscate kind of how much stuff they’re buying off of America… but mathematically, they just can’t stop.” Curse those calculators.
If you’re wondering how Hayes invests while dodging all this macroeconomic melodrama, it’s about 60% Bitcoin, 20% Ether, and the balance in what he calls “quality shitcoins”—which, depending on the exchange, is either a bold portfolio or a cry for help.
Why all this confidence? Evidently, we are in “fundamentals season.” People are, for the first time in living memory, interested in coins that do things. It’s bullish—at least until KardashianCoin launches.
So pile in, don’t check the Fed website, and remember: as always, if you lose your shirt, at least it wasn’t an NFT.
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2025-05-08 10:15