An Extremely Early Analysis of Sinners’s Oscar Potential

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Every spring, there seems to be a film that captivates the cinematic world and leaves Oscar voters pondering where to slot it in during award season. This year, that film appears to be “Sinners,” directed by Ryan Coogler, which is garnering attention following impressive box office reports: Its second-weekend drop was a mere 6%, a figure almost unheard of, as a 50% drop is more common.

As a fan, I’m captivated by the incredible buzz surrounding “Sinners,” a film that has solidified Ryan Coogler’s status as a potential successor to the legendary Christopher Nolan. Just as Nolan leveraged the success of superheroes to create his own line of sophisticated blockbusters for adults, Coogler seems poised to follow suit.

It was Nolan who, more than a decade ago, inspired the Academy to broaden the Best Picture category, aiming to recognize bigger movies like tentpoles in the Oscars. If the trend continues, “Sinners” could be the next film to join this esteemed club. Recent years have seen films such as “Wicked” and “Top Gun: Maverick” secure a place among the Best Picture nominees due to their impressive box office performance. However, unlike these movies, “Sinners,” with its three preceding films earning a total of 13 Oscar nominations, boasts a pedigree that is truly unmatched.

Let me clarify something upfront: “Sinners” is a vampire thriller that’s undeniably pulpy and filled with sex, sweat, and occasional chaos – not the typical film you’d associate with an Academy Award nominee. However, recent years have shown us that the definition of an “Oscar-worthy” movie has broadened significantly. We now live in a time where films like “EEAAO”, “Barbie”, “The Zone of Interest”, and even “The Substance” can coexist in the Best Picture category. This expansion necessitates a flexible perspective from predictors. The only real determinant for an Oscar-contender is, “Is it resonating with audiences?” And yes, “Sinners” is definitely striking a chord. While I can’t predict the course of next season, I will say this: If by January we have ten more compelling Best Picture contenders, then 2023 promises to be an exceptionally competitive year.

In their pursuit to appeal to both commercial and artistic audiences, the filmmakers of “Sinners” must effectively execute what I call the “prestige pivot,” persuading viewers that it’s not just an entertaining movie but a thought-provoking piece of art. Fortunately, even casual viewers can tell that “Sinners” is more than just a typical vampire movie. Ryan Coogler has packed the film with profound themes such as the exploitation and commodification of Black culture, the complex dynamic between Black creators and white financing, and parallels between Black and Irish histories. These weighty topics should help “Sinners” surpass the Academy’s usual reluctance towards horror genre films.

Moreover, it’s significant that “Sinners” is an original story, one that Ryan Coogler holds close to his heart, having negotiated a clause for its rights to revert back to him in 25 years. Importantly, following a series of puzzling negative box office reports during its opening weekend, the film has already sparked a movement. This week, Clayton Davis from “Variety” challenged the Academy to take “Sinners” seriously as an Oscar contender: “Ryan Coogler doesn’t ask for the Academy’s vote; he demands a response.

If sinners can blur the line between prestige and business, it’s expected that the film will excel in technical categories. Considering its content, nominations in Sound and Original Song seem plausible, with “I Lied to You,” a Raphael Saadiq co-written track that underscores a pivotal scene, appearing as the frontrunner for the latter. Previous Oscar winners Hannah Beachler (production design), Ruth E. Carter (costume design), and Ludwig Göransson (composer) from Ryan Coogler’s Black Panther could reappear in contention. Carter might even earn another trophy for the unique costumes in the mid-credits scene. Possible additional nominees include editor Michael P. Shawver, whose innovative editing heightens the suspense, and cinematographer Autumn Durald Arkapaw, whose wide-angle shots beautifully capture the essence of the Black South.

In general, it’s challenging for actors in big-budget movies to gain recognition, as is the case with Michael B. Jordan who delivers a commendable performance distinguishing the characters Smoke and Stack. However, action-hero roles often don’t resonate with the Academy. The Supporting Actor category could potentially open up for Miles Caton, a promising newcomer who plays a central role in the film. Given that the Academy tends to be cautious when it comes to young male nominees, I have my doubts about his chances. Instead, Delroy Lindo, portraying a seasoned bluesman, might be the safer bet. He has a strong claim for a career achievement award which he missed out on in Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods. Additionally, Coogler’s previous films have garnered nominations for veterans like Sylvester Stallone and Angela Bassett, so history might be on Lindo’s side.

In addition to the fresh Oscar category honoring the Best Casting, when I inquire about the desired attributes for this award from casting directors, some emphasize a harmonious group of actors, others highlight discovering new talent, and yet others point out the complexity in locating performers who can both sing and dance. Interestingly, the film “Sinners” boasts all these qualities, which could potentially make it a strong candidate for the debut year of this category – not least because its casting director, Francine Maisler, is a renowned figure in the industry, having worked on more than a dozen Best Picture nominees, including consecutive winners such as “12 Years a Slave” and “Birdman”.

As a movie enthusiast, I’ve noticed that there are certainly arguments for being skeptical about the award prospects of a film like “Sinners.” For instance, consider Jordan Peele, another talented Black director working within the horror genre, who despite winning an Original Screenplay Oscar for “Get Out,” has seen his subsequent films “Us” and “Nope” overlooked by the Academy. These movies were significant successes, released outside the typical Oscar season, and although critics’ groups have championed them, they got lost amidst the year-end buzz.

Similarly, there might be concerns about whether “Sinners” carries enough emotional weight to resonate with voters, a quality that often proves crucial for major contenders. Additionally, as the Academy becomes more diverse and global, the relatively modest international box office earnings of “Sinners” ($40 million compared to approximately $135 million domestically) could signal that non-U.S. voters might not connect with it in the same way.

On the other hand, it’s just as accurate to point out that “Us” and “Nope” used much more elusive symbolism than “Sinners”, making their meanings potentially clearer for Oscar voters to grasp. The emotional aspect could be addressed if enough viewers choose to stay until the mid-credit scene, which introduces an unanticipated poignancy and leaves the viewer with a wistful feeling at the end.

Is it possible for “Sinners” to not just win Best Picture but also compete at the highest level? This largely depends on timing and isn’t something that can be determined now. If Coogler is indeed the next Nolan, could “Sinners” be his equivalent of “Inception,” which was nominated for both Picture and Screenplay and won some technical awards? Could it be his “Dunkirk,” which earned the director a long-desired directing nomination? Or perhaps it’s his “Oppenheimer,” the blockbuster hit that becomes unavoidable, though this might be overly optimistic due to the director’s relatively young age (under 40). However, at this early stage in the year, it’s hard to predict with certainty.

It’s clear that the movie might gain an advantage in award competitions due to strong studio backing from Warner Bros., especially since executives Pam Abdy and Michael DeLuca have faced criticism over their deal with Coogler. Now that their investment has proven successful, they are likely eager to finance a triumphant end-of-year campaign. It’s not just about asking for recognition; it’s also about proving those doubters wrong.

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2025-05-01 22:54