Altcoins to the Moon?! 🚀🌕

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Real Vision’s chief crypto analyst, a certain Jamie Coutts – a fellow with eyes, no doubt, and perhaps even a brain – is, against all common sense, leaning bullish on altcoins. Imagine! In this blasted, bearish wasteland! One almost suspects sorcery. Or perhaps just strong drink. 🍹

Coutts, this brave, or perhaps foolhardy, soul, claims that sentiment is “so bombed out”. Yes, bombed out like Moscow after… well, you get the picture. He bases this outlandish claim on the ratio between the equal cap weight and the market cap weight of the top 200 largest altcoins. A four-year low, he says. So low, one might trip over it. One shudders at the possibilities! 😱

According to Coutts, and who are we to doubt him? (Actually, quite a few, probably), the ratio suggests that some altcoins are on the cusp of a bullish reversal. A reversal, you say? Like a drunken bureaucrat reversing his limousine into a lamppost? 🤔

“Structural issues of investing in the asset class aside,” Coutts opines, “where we are today are levels where, in the past, you start to see high-quality altcoins start to recover.” Ah, “high-quality” altcoins. Like finding a Faberge egg in a pigsty, wouldn’t you say? 🐖🥚

Turning his gaze, like a suspicious landlord eyeing a broken samovar, to Bitcoin (BTC), Real Vision’s chief crypto analyst declares that the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), a metric so arcane it would baffle even a seasoned fortune teller, suggests that Bitcoin reached a cycle peak in the fourth quarter of 2024. Oh, the hubris! And brace yourselves, comrades, for “we should brace for the bear market.” Brrr! 🥶 Like a winter in Siberia, I imagine.

According to Coutts, and let us clutch our pearls and listen, various factors could determine whether Bitcoin stays bearish or resumes an uptrend. As if the market gives a fig about anyone’s theories!

“Firstly, every cycle/regime is different,” he proclaims. As if we hadn’t noticed! “This time, we have a US administration hellbent on closing the [federal budget] deficit – that is creating more uncertainty and will impact dynamics going forward.” Uncertainty! As if the world weren’t already teetering on the brink of chaos. 🤪

“But is China/Europe better off or worse off today versus four to six years ago? They will likely need to do more this time and fill the void if the U.S. Treasury/Federal Reserve is more constrained.” Oh, the tangled web of global finance! One needs a map, a compass, and a stiff drink just to understand the headlines. 😵‍💫

The Real Vision chief crypto analyst, with the air of a man who has seen both heaven and hell (and probably a few crypto scams in between), says that while the MVRV metric suggests Bitcoin has already reached the current cycle’s peak, a lot will depend on global liquidity conditions. According to Coutts, Bitcoin could enjoy more upside if the global liquidity improves but could be primed for a downward trajectory if the liquidity stays constrained or falls further. In short: Who knows? Maybe up, maybe down. Buy, sell, or hold your breath and pray. Just another day in the madhouse, eh? 🤡

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2025-03-27 17:42