Bitcoin Christmas rally to $200K or $300K possible based on ‘power law’ model

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Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin is ahead of its long-term “power law” curve, historically leading to euphoric price highs in previous cycles.

  • A falling dollar and anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts may trigger a broader risk-on rally, with Bitcoin as a major beneficiary.

  • Spot Bitcoin ETFs have captured 70% of gold’s inflows in 2025.

Bitcoin (BTC) has already climbed by 10% in July, hitting new highs at $118,600. And this is just the opening act, folks. According to some anonymous Bitcoin wizard (who goes by the name apsk32, very mysterious), this could lead to a *parabolic* rally. A *parabolic* rally! Just imagine, Bitcoin could reach $258,000 if history decides to do its thing again. No big deal, right?

Apsk32 explains that Bitcoin’s price is currently ahead of the “power law” curve, which sounds like something you’d hear from a very serious math professor. This curve is like Bitcoin’s personal growth chart, and it’s been following it like a champ for years. The model doesn’t just look at the price, but also the time it takes for Bitcoin to go all “expansion mode.” It’s called Power Law Time Contours. It’s as fancy as it sounds, but hey, it’s still just a prediction. So take it with a grain of salt… or maybe a whole salt shaker.

The analyst notes that Bitcoin is over two years ahead of its curve. Yes, you heard that right—*two years*! Which means, if Bitcoin suddenly freezes in place (and let’s be honest, it probably won’t), it would take two years for it to catch up with its predicted future self. Apsk32 said:

“We’re currently above 79% of the historical data using this metric. The top 20% is what I call ‘extreme greed.’ These are the blow-off tops that come around every four years.”

Sounds like someone has been studying Bitcoin for a very long time. The “extreme greed” zone (seriously, does this sound like a theme park to you?) could see Bitcoin skyrocketing from $112,000 to $258,000. And that could happen by Christmas! Santa’s not bringing you socks this year, just Bitcoin at $200K to $300K. What a time to be alive, right?

Meanwhile, Satraj Bambra, the CEO of some fancy trading platform, thinks Bitcoin could go higher in 2025, thanks to a couple of macroeconomic magic tricks. With the Federal Reserve likely cutting interest rates and the expanding balance sheet (whatever that means), Bitcoin might just get that *extra push* it needs to reach the stars.

Bambra even suggested that Bitcoin could hit the $300K to $500K range, and if you’re not picking up your jaw from the floor, well, you’re a stronger person than I am.

“I see Bitcoin going parabolic in the region of $300K–500K driven by two key forces.”

Bitcoin ETF catches up to gold as risk-on rally builds

Oh, and here’s a fun little tidbit: Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are now capturing 70% of gold’s inflows for 2025. Yup, you read that right. Bitcoin is eating gold’s lunch, and it’s probably doing it with extra ketchup. Institutional interest in Bitcoin is growing faster than you can say “blockchain,” signaling that the digital gold rush is *officially* on.

Bitcoin is still a “risk-on” asset, which sounds a lot like something you’d say to describe your cousin after they’ve had one too many energy drinks. It’s been moving pretty closely with the Nasdaq 100, which tells us that it’s doing something right, and it doesn’t care that it’s not as steady as gold or bonds. It’s a *special* asset. And we love it for that.

Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, agrees that Bitcoin is now officially “back on top.” According to Timmer, the performance gap between Bitcoin and gold is closing faster than my attempts at cooking dinner. Gold’s current Sharpe ratio stands at $20.34, while Bitcoin’s has climbed to $16.95. And, apparently, this is a big deal.

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2025-07-12 02:34