You Won’t Believe What Crypto Just Did—And Why It’s Probably Already Too Late

What To Know:

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET, because the universe revolves around New York… or so I’m told)

Cryptocurrencies dipped a smidge in the last 24 hours, which in the crypto world is like finding out your toddler flushed your lottery ticket: disappointing but, let’s face it, you suspected it would end this way. The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index ticked down 1.4%. Bitcoin? Still lounging around $95,000, like an indifferent cat who knows you can’t afford to stop feeding it. On the bright side, April’s been good to BTC—up 15%, or as my dentist calls it, “the cost of a cleaning.”

Now, the market is wrestling with the sort of existential dread typically reserved for freshman English majors: Will Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” descend upon every country, or will the Fed slink in early to cut rates and save us all? The answer, according to Bankinter, a Spanish bank that knows more about siestas than crypto, is: “Maybe, but honestly, the emotional damage is already done.” Confidence, they say, is the real foundation here, so take off your shoes before entering.

This is probably why companies with names that sound like summer barbecue guests (P&G, PepsiCo, GM) are yanking their earnings forecasts faster than I can delete my tweets from 2012. Also among today’s fun facts: France’s GDP is up, but only because warehouses are packed with unsold berets. Consumption, investment, exports—they’re about as lively as my houseplants.

All eyes are on the upcoming U.S. GDP report, landing at 8:30 a.m., and predictions are about as optimistic as a vegan at a Texas BBQ. Bitcoin’s bizarre resilience, set against the worst 100 days for stocks since disco got declared a crime against music, is nudging some to call it an actual “hedge.”

Global head of research at NYDIG, Greg Cipolaro, offered this clinical diagnosis: Bitcoin is acting “like the non-sovereign issued store of value that it is.” So, exactly like the thing it says it is, which feels oddly radical these days. Spot bitcoin ETFs pulled in $3 billion this month, most of which, I assume, is from people hoping it can replace their 401(k) or at least pay for brunch.

In conclusion: Stay alert! Or just stay hydrated and pretend to be alert, like everyone else.

Conferences

CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto, May 14-16. Code DAYBOOK saves you 15%—which should just about cover the cost of hotel Wi-Fi.

Day 4 of 4: Web Summit Rio 2025 (because who doesn’t love a conference about the future, now?)
Day 1 of 2: TOKEN2049, Dubai (it’s hot, but so is your portfolio, at least until lunchtime)
May 6-7: Financial Times Digital Assets Summit (London, home of dry wit and damp weather)
May 11-17: Canada Crypto Week (Toronto again—is this a coincidence or a plot?)
May 12-13: Dubai FinTech Summit
May 12-13: Filecoin Developer Summit (Toronto; if you know what Filecoin is, please explain it to me)
May 12-13: Latest in DeFi Research Conference (New York—where else?)
May 12-14: 9th Annual Legal, Regulatory, and Compliance Forum on Fintech & Emerging Payment Systems (New York, duration: just short enough to keep lawyers awake)
May 13: Blockchain Futurist Conference (Toronto, by now you should just rent a place there)
May 13: ETHWomen (Toronto, again; bring a parka and a sense of humor)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

Solana’s Housecoin (HOUSE) skyrocketed to nearly a $100 million market cap Wednesday, like someone finally found Narnia behind a vending machine. All this, thanks to a 63% bump and, possibly, too much caffeine in the developer chatroom.
The coin jumped more than 900% in three weeks, mainly because everyone loves a joke—especially when it comes with the adrenaline hit of possibly losing your life savings.
This memecoin is a satire on real estate. (In the future, you too can own a tiny digital house you can never visit. Or afford.)
Holding HOUSE is, according to its fans, just like holding property. Except it’s not property, has no value, and won’t stop your mom from asking why you rent.
Extreme volatility and zero fundamentals? What could possibly go wrong? Place your bets—just don’t tell your financial advisor. 🤡

Derivatives Positioning

On Binance, the popular pastime is negative funding rates: PEPE at -14.7%, ADA at -11.2%. All this tells us is that being right is overrated and betting against the crowd is even more fun when the crowd is confused.
BSW, DRIFT, PROMPT have seen open interest spike 61%, 58%, and 33%, respectively, which means absolutely nothing to my aunt, but seems to excite traders.
ALPACA, a BNB Chain asset (not to be confused with the animal, which is less volatile), had over $55 million in short liquidations in 24 hours. See what happens when you bet against the fluffy ones?

Market Movements

BTC: down 0.19% at $94,915.28—so, almost unchanged, for those who already stopped caring
ETH: down 0.57% at $1,805.20, or -1.48% if you count decimals more than moods
CoinDesk 20: down 0.51% at 2,751.84 (which I assume means it now fits inside your glove compartment)
Ether CESR Staking Rate: up 19 bps at 2.99%
BTC funding rate: 0.0008%! (Fun fact, this is barely enough to buy gum—if you can still find gum)

DXY: up 0.19% at 99.43, so now almost 100, like your grandma’s blood pressure
Gold: down 1.16% at $3,278.15/oz—still not edible
Silver: down 1.64% at $32.36/oz, falling out of favor with pirates and grandmas alike
Nikkei 225: +0.57% at 36,045.38 (which would be impressive if I knew what it meant)
Hang Seng: +0.51% at 22,119.41
FTSE: up 0.13% at 8,474.22
Euro Stoxx 50: up 0.24% at 5,174.41
DJIA: +0.75% at 40,527.62—Big Number Energy
S&P 500: +0.56% at 5,560.83
Nasdaq: +0.55% at 17,461.32
S&P/TSX: +0.31% at 24,874.48
S&P 40 Latin America: unchanged at 2,548.27 (it’s on a coffee break)
US 10-year Treasury: down to 4.17%—which sounds more exciting if you say “basis points” a few times
E-mini S&P 500 futures: down 0.28% at 5,568.25
E-mini Nasdaq-100: down 0.44% at 19,556.00
E-mini DJIA: down 0.22% at 40,596.00. Yawn.

Bitcoin Stats

BTC Dominance: 64.54 (that’s percent, not an overcooked steak)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.01902 (if you figure out what you can buy with it, I’ll eat my ledger)
Hashrate (7-day moving average): 837 EH/s (your laptop can’t relate)
Hashprice (spot): $49.08—still can’t pay NYC rent
Total Fees: 6.17 BTC/$585,773.63 (enough for a coffee in Manhattan)
CME Futures Open Interest: 134,825 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 28.9 oz (pirates take note)
BTC vs. gold market cap: 8.19% (better luck next bull run)

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin and its digital friends are tripping over key liquidity levels, suggesting a market pullback is about as likely as losing a sock in the dryer—if not more so.
Solana took a victory lap to $153, only to faceplant at the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is a fancy way of saying “nope.”
Bulls are now holding their breath for a higher low at $137, unless market demand just decides to ghost everyone.

Crypto Equities

Strategy (MSTR): closed Tuesday at $381.45 (+3.3%), then immediately lost 0.41% in pre-market, as a treat
Coinbase (COIN): closed at $206.13 (+0.42%)—buy yourself half an ETH and a coffee
Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.09 (-0.57%)
MARA Holdings: $14.22 (+1.5%), then down a hair in pre-market (market insomnia logic)
Riot Platforms (RIOT): $7.42 (-2.75%), down again in pre-market (somebody needs a pick-me-up)
Core Scientific (CORZ): $8.29 (+0.61%), then slipped a bit (call it “dynamic pricing”)
CleanSpark (CLSK): $8.44 (-1.52%), then $8.42 (coin-flip level volatility)
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): $14.19 (-0.98%)
Semler Scientific (SMLR): $33.97 (-3.96%), up 4.95% after-hours—because logic is dead
Exodus Movement (EXOD): $40.97 (-2.87%), then up 2.49% at $41.99—call it a comeback

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

Daily net flow: $172.8 million (in case you misplaced your piggy bank)
Cumulative net flows: $39.16 billion—numbers so big you need a telescope
Total BTC holdings: ~1.15 million. Try fitting that under your mattress.

Spot ETH ETFs:

Daily net flow: $18.4 million
Cumulative: $2.50 billion
Total ETH holdings: ~3.44 million. Mom’s not impressed yet.

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

Alpaca Finance (ALPACA) earned the title of “best sheep impersonator” on centralized exchanges, up a terrifying 2,500% over the last week.
How? Short squeeze. Basically, lots of traders betted against it, lost, and now their tears fuel the moon mission. 🚀
Current price: $1.375. Amazing what you can achieve with blind optimism and delisting threats.