Prepare for These Narratives to Dominate the Emmys Race

As the Emmys are five months away, the final contenders are preparing to debut before the May 31 cut-off. Shows from all categories have emerged as potential winners, but the narratives supporting these candidates are just starting to take shape. Last year at this time, “The Bear” seemed unbeatable in the Comedy category, but its third season with fewer laughs caused controversy, paving the way for “Hacks” to burst through and win Outstanding Comedy Series at the last minute. Since then, “Hacks” has won numerous awards including Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Producers Guild, Directors Guild, Writers Guild, and GLAAD Media Awards. It’s as if everyone in Hollywood discovered not only do they like this show, but they truly adore it. Watch the standing ovation “Hacks” received when it won the Emmy last year. This isn’t just anti–”The Bear” Schadenfreude; it’s genuine enthusiasm for “Hacks”. Currently, “Hacks” is the clear favorite in Outstanding Comedy Series (in addition to Lead Actress and Writing, the other two awards it won last year). Could it also win Supporting?

Between now and July 15 (nomination day) and September 14 (Emmys night), there’s a lot of time for us to analyze trends and make accurate predictions. However, this week, we’re feeling bold and ready to take some risks. Here are the stories that will define the Emmys season.

It’s Finally Hannah Einbinder’s Year

Although Hacks has been dominating comedy series this season with multiple wins for Jean Smart in Lead Actress, Hannah Einbinder has yet to secure a win in Supporting Actress. Despite being a co-lead, she’s categorized as supporting, which seems to work against her every year. The recent Oscars once again demonstrated that playing a lead role while being listed as supporting can be beneficial for actors. However, Einbinder has consistently lost out to Hannah Waddingham from Ted Lasso, Sheryl Lee Ralph from Abbott Elementary, and last year’s winner, Liza Colón-Zayas from The Bear. This year, both Ralph and Colón-Zayas are back in contention (with the latter receiving a notable episode focusing on how she obtained her job at the sandwich shop), along with strong performances by Jessica Williams in Shrinking, Catherine O’Hara in The Studio, and Patti LuPone in Agatha All Along. Some even speculate potential competition within Hacks from Meg Stalter. Nevertheless, this season could be Einbinder’s best opportunity for a win. On-screen, her portrayal of Ava going head-to-head with Deborah provides numerous memorable moments. Behind the scenes, the growing acclaim for Hacks can only boost Einbinder’s chances at an award.

The Studio Is the One Comedy That Can Crack the Big Four

Over the last two years, these four shows – Hacks, The Bear, Abbott Elementary, and Only Murders in the Building – have become staples in the comedy category, consistently winning major precursor awards such as the Emmys, Golden Globes, PGAs, and SAGs. This year, it’s expected that they will secure nominations for Outstanding Comedy Series, with newcomers like Shrinking, Nobody Wants This, The Four Seasons, and the final season of What We Do in the Shadows competing for the remaining spots. These shows are strong contenders to win across categories including acting, writing, and directing.

The standout comedy series that seems destined for a Comedy Series nomination and has a strong chance of winning is “The Studio,” the Hollywood satire from Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg on Apple TV+. Although it hasn’t received the same level of critical acclaim as shows like “The Bear” or “Hacks” at their debuts, its generally positive reception, coupled with its heartfelt portrayal of Hollywood’s ongoing crisis, makes it an exceptionally promising contender. Last week, we highlighted how “The Pitt” could leverage the “made in L.A.” angle to its advantage; this argument is even stronger for “The Studio,” given that it revolves around the struggle for the industry’s survival, both on and off-screen.

The categories where The Studio has the most promising chances for an Emmy win are Directing (the second episode, “The Oner,” showcases exceptional single-take comedy) and Supporting Actress. Although I’ve strongly advocated for Hannah Einbinder, Catherine O’Hara, a past Emmy winner, could pose stiff competition as she delivers hilarious performances as a former studio head struggling to regain relevance. Rogen is undergoing an intriguing metamorphosis into a compelling symbol of industry morality in these challenging times. His comments at the Breakthrough Awards criticizing the Trump administration and complicit Silicon Valley made waves, particularly when they were omitted from the ceremony’s YouTube broadcast. Emmy voters are often resistant to change; they may require a significant reason to deviate from their previous choices. Rogen’s transition from stoner-comedy icon to outspoken Truth Teller could be the sort of perception change that convinces Emmy voters to view him in a fresh, award-worthy light.

Severance Will Take Advantage of HBO’s Scrum in Drama Series

So far, Apple hasn’t won an Outstanding Drama Series award, with its efforts seemingly concentrated on garnering trophies for Ted Lasso in Comedy. However, this year presents a promising opportunity for Apple to finally claim victory. The anticipated return of Severance has been generating excitement among critics and viewers about Innies and Outies once more. Although its first season lost out to Succession at the 2022 Emmys, it now faces stiff competition from an HBO/Max trio that may not be as formidable as before.

In its first two seasons, “The White Lotus” has been a significant player in the Emmy Awards, but its third season set in Thailand is facing some criticism and controversy off-screen, as well as a finale that didn’t resonate with many viewers. On the other hand, “The Last of Us” is still up in the air regarding its Emmy potential because much of its appeal will rely on the reception of its second season. We discussed the possibilities for “The Pitt” last week; there’s a possibility it could become HBO/Max’s top contender.

As the understanding deepens that no single Emmy favorite exists on HBO, “Severance” appears to be the series that others are trying to surpass. It’s trendy and addresses the current societal climate, including technofascism, more coherently than the confused wealth-gazing of “The White Lotus” or “The Last of Us,” which delve deeper into themes of grief and revenge. In comparison, “Slow Horses” takes a backseat in this category, while it seems Apple is heavily backing “Severance.

Netflix Could Be in for Another Quiet Year

Last year, Netflix’s success with “Baby Reindeer” in the Limited Series category was noteworthy, yet it seemed that Netflix was somewhat overlooked in both drama and comedy categories, which raised some worries. Fast forward to this year, and there might be a repeat of those concerns. Netflix does have contenders, but how do they compare to the fierce competition from HBO, Apple, and FX? In the Drama category, we have the second season of “Squid Game,” which made a soft return compared to the deafening noise of its explosive debut first season. “The Diplomat” season two and “Black Doves” are potential candidates to fill some of the eight slots for Outstanding Drama Series, but Emmy experts don’t see them taking home any awards. (As a follower, I am expressing my thoughts on Netflix’s performance in the drama category compared to its competitors.)

In the realm of comedy, “Nobody Wants This” managed a respectable performance at awards ceremonies such as the Golden Globes and Critics Choice. However, with its momentum waning, Netflix must now rekindle interest in the show. This task becomes even more challenging given that shows like “Hacks” and “The Bear” are currently airing fresh episodes. Other comedies such as “The Four Seasons” and “The Residence” will need robust promotional efforts to secure a place among what seems to be only three available slots for Comedy Series.

The Limited Series section on Netflix continues to stand out, with the four-part British series “Adolescence” and Ryan Murphy’s “The Menendez Murders: Lyle and Erik Story” currently in strong contention. Although both shows explore the aftermath of a heinous crime, they couldn’t be more different in their tone and style. The somber and introspective “Adolescence” is a stark contrast to the flashy and sensational “Monsters.” However, both series could appeal to Emmy voters who have traditionally appreciated diverse Limited Series, as a reminder that the first season of “Monsters” was nominated two years ago.

Kathy Bates Is Your Drama Actress Front-runner

I’m careful not to find myself like Charlie Brown, eagerly charging towards a football that might be snatched away again, as I anticipated Bates would take home the Golden Globe, but alas, Anna Sawai claimed the victory instead. However, the awards journey for Shōgun ends until season two, and now Bates is up against a challenging group of contenders who may struggle to keep pace.

Bates, of course, is an esteemed Oscar-winning actress, boasting two Emmy wins (among 14 nominations) as well. She played a pivotal role in reviving a seemingly outdated legal show, transforming it into a hit for CBS in the process. In essence, she became a beacon of network television.

Casting a vote for Kathy Bates is a vote for a vibrant TV industry reminiscent of the era when Andy Griffith graced our screens! That’s the underlying message behind her campaign strategy.

Competing against Lady Matlock, there’s a group of potential replacements who each have compelling stories, but they also come with certain weaknesses. Bella Ramsey is expected to receive plenty of attention in the second season of The Last of Us, yet she may face resistance from Emmy voters due to their past tendency to overlook younger actors. Zendaya’s two victories in 2020 and 2022 were exceptions, but Zendaya was older than Ramsey is now when she first won her award for Euphoria, and at that time, she had already established herself as a leading actress in Marvel films.

Britt Lower could greatly benefit from a surge in popularity for “Severance,” despite receiving less screen time than her co-stars. On the other hand, Keri Russell is the main character in “The Diplomat,” and viewers might feel they owe her a nod due to her exceptional performance in “The Americans.” Elisabeth Moss is back for another season of “The Handmaid’s Tale,” a show that previously served as a symbol of resistance during Donald Trump’s first term. However, the atmosphere has changed with Trump 2.0; there’s less of a feeling that art can reverse the tide of a harmful administration. Although Emmy voters have been strong supporters of “The Handmaid’s Tale” in the past, it’s Madeline Matlock’s time to shine now.

Genre Shows Will Struggle to Contend

Five years ago, HBO’s groundbreaking series “Watchmen,” an audacious and thought-provoking adaptation of a classic graphic novel set in a world where superheroes have both positive and negative impacts, was the most acclaimed and nominated television show across all platforms. The following year, “The Mandalorian” on Disney+ (an expansion of the Star Wars universe) and “WandaVision” (an extension of the Marvel Cinematic Universe) garnered a combined total of 47 Emmy nominations and ten wins. This marked a shift in television awards, once dominated by cop, doctor, and lawyer dramas, now embracing even the most hardcore genre productions following the decade-long reign of the fantasy epic “Game of Thrones.

In terms of peak performance, that moment was reminiscent of the highest point on a wave. Following the release of shows like Obi Wan Kenobi and Ahsoka within the Star Wars universe, the quality seemed to decline significantly, especially when it came to Emmy awards. Similarly, in the realm of classic fantasy, the worlds created by George R.R. Martin and J.R.R. Tolkien haven’t seen much success either: It appears that House of the Dragon won’t be filling Game of Thrones’ shoes in terms of Emmy awards, and Amazon’s The Rings of Power series has failed to impress the Academy despite grand expectations and high production costs.

Disney is optimistic about the potential recognition for “Andor,” its critically acclaimed Star Wars series, and “Agatha All Along,” the only MCU series this year to make an impact. Both shows seem worthy of Emmy awards, but the trend in popular culture currently leans away from extending intellectual properties. Contrasting this, Max’s The Penguin was a significant player in the 2024 year-end awards and could compete in the Limited Series category. It seems that both “Andor” and “The Penguin” are distinct because they strive to stand alone – one being a political-resistance drama with heavy noir influences, while the other is a crime drama also heavily influenced by noir – and evoke as little association as possible with the IP sources from which they originated. Are they exceptions that defy the rule, or indications that Emmy voters are eager to guide genre shows towards a more realistic direction?

The White Lotus Will Get a Fraction of the Acting Nominations It’s Used To

In its Limited Series debut, The White Lotus’ first season garnered eight acting nominations, with the second season upping that count to nine. Despite strategically campaigning all cast members as Supporting actors, potentially causing divided votes, Mike White’s series has been a force in these categories, earning three wins – two for Jennifer Coolidge and one for Murray Bartlett. However, while Season 3 maintained its status as a popular Sunday-night conversation starter on HBO this year, it faced criticism and viewer discontent not experienced in the first two seasons. Add to that the fact that The Last of Us, Severance, and The Pitt (along with other dramas) boast strong supporting casts vying for nominations, it seems highly likely that The White Lotus may no longer be able to dominate the Supporting categories as it once did.

In simpler terms, For the cast of season three, it looks like Parker Posey could take on a role similar to Jennifer Coolidge. Jason Isaacs had great reviews last season. Walton Goggins, who has been nominated for Emmys before, is another notable actor. Aimee Lou Wood was highly praised on social media and may benefit from some positive news after her difficult experience on Saturday Night Live. Natasha Rothwell was recognized in the first season with a nomination. Lastly, Carrie Coon’s powerful monologue in the season finale suggests she has strong chances for major recognition.

Moving on from the initial five contenders, there’s an argument for Patrick Schwarzenegger, whose role underwent a substantial transformation. However, Leslie Bibb and Michelle Monaghan might struggle due to their storylines being quite thin. The same criticism applies to Tayme Thapthimthong as the consistently anxious Gaitok. Sam Nivola and Sarah Catherine Hook may not have the captivating moments that other shows’ competitors will boast. As for Blackpink’s Lisa, it might be best to avoid discussing her limited material.

The good news? Sam Rockwell is a slam-dunk for a Guest Actor nomination.

2025-04-19 16:55