Is Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle as Dead as a Dodo? You Won’t Believe This Metric!

by

Well now, gather ’round, folks, for we find ourselves in a most curious predicament! Our dear friend Bitcoin (BTC) has been languishing in a prolonged slump these last two months, and the chatter about the demise of its bull cycle is as thick as molasses in January. While some market seers and fortune tellers are busy spinning their predictions like a cat on a hot tin roof, it seems that only the cold, hard facts from the on-chain data can shed light on this murky affair.

According to a weekly missive from the oracle known as CryptoQuant, there exists a contraption called the Bitcoin Bull Score Model that claims to tell us whether this drawdown is just a pesky little hiccup or the start of a long, dreary bear market. Spoiler alert: this metric is not exactly painting a rosy picture for our beloved BTC. 😬

The Bull Score Model

Now, this Bull Score Model is a fancy contraption that sizes up the investment landscape for BTC by taking a gander at nine on-chain indicators and a single market metric. Each of these metrics is like a binary switch—either it’s a 1 (bullish) or a 0 (bearish), determined by some rules that assess network activity, market liquidity, demand, and the curious behavior of investors. It’s like a game of poker, only with fewer cards and more confusion.

The metrics in this grand game include the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, the Bitcoin Profit and Loss Index, the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, and the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP). They also throw in a few more indicators like the CryptoQuant Network Activity Index, Stablecoin Liquidity, Bitcoin Demand Growth, and the Trader On-chain Profit Margin—because why not? The more, the merrier! đŸŽ©

At present, only two out of ten of these metrics—Stablecoin Liquidity and Technical Signal—are waving their little bullish flags, while the rest are looking as bearish as a grizzly in winter. CryptoQuant, in its infinite wisdom, has proclaimed that such conditions reveal a distinct lack of strong fundamentals to support any price rally or recovery. How delightful! 🙄

“We can observe that the metrics have switched between bullish and bearish phases multiple times, with extended periods of green indicating strong bullish cycles and prolonged stretches of red corresponding to market conditions. Recently, a significant number of metrics have turned red, particularly since mid-February 2025,” the market analytics platform added.

Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle is Over

Some of these metrics, like the Network Activity Index, have been as bearish as a wet blanket since December 2024, signaling a steady decline in network activity. Overall, these indicators are about as bullish as a three-legged mule at a horse race since January 2023.

The Bull Score Model measures the percentage of bullish metrics from 0 to 100—where 0 is as bearish as a bear can be, and 100 is a full-on bull stampede. In past bull markets, BTC has enjoyed raucous rallies with the Bull Score at 60 and above. However, when the score dips below 40, you can bet your boots that prolonged downturns are just around the corner.

As it stands, Bitcoin’s Bull Score is currently languishing at a mere 20—its lowest level since January 2023—signaling a weak investment environment and about as much chance of a sustained rally as a cat has of enjoying a swim. đŸ±â€đŸ‘€

Read More

2025-03-23 10:41