Console players are increasingly entrenched in live service games

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Based on Matt Piscatella’s analysis as the Executive Director at Circana, it was found that approximately 70% of PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X/S players engaged with the top ten live service games in January. Piscatella discussed this along with insights about the evolving video game market, future expectations, and how gaming spending reached its peak four years ago on a Twitter thread titled “BlueSky.” Given recent triumphs, failures, studio shutdowns, and redundancies, what can we anticipate for the direction of the gaming industry in the near future?

40% of time spent on consoles last month went to ten live service games

Instead of listing the top ten live service games directly, analyst Piscatella recently disclosed a chart displaying the top fifteen most popular weekly players on PlayStation 5, Xbox Series, and Steam platforms during mid-February. Interestingly, Call of Duty and Fortnite hold the first and second spots across both consoles. Some other games that secured positions in the top ten for both platforms include Grand Theft Auto V, Roblox, Marvel Rivals, Minecraft, NBA 2K25, Madden NFL 25. Moreover, Rocket League, Destiny 2, and Apex Legends can be found among the top fifteen on at least one console. Therefore, we now have a general idea of what the top ten list might look like.

Piscatella’s post highlights an interesting pattern: Over 70% of active US PS5/XBS players played at least one of the top 10 live service games in January, with these same titles accounting for over 40% of all gaming time on these consoles during the same period. What catches the eye when examining these charts is that, aside from perennial favorites like Call of Duty and sports games, Marvel Rivals is one of the few new additions in recent years. In fact, many of the top-performing console games, as recently as a few weeks ago, are titles that have been around for nearly a decade or more. For instance, Fortnite was launched eight years ago this summer, GTA 5 was released twelve years back, Minecraft has been available since 2009, and Roblox debuted an impressive nineteen years ago in 2006. Remarkably, Marvel Rivals, a game only three months old, has managed to break this trend, which is truly noteworthy, but we’ll delve deeper into that aspect later on.

Currently, a large number of gamers, particularly console gamers, are deeply engrossed in ongoing, continually updated, timeless gaming environments. In contrast, the top 15 games from Steam over the same period showcase a more contemporary feel, featuring titles like Helldivers 2 (which interestingly didn’t make it to the top 15 on PS5 charts), indie sensation Balatro, and latest releases such as Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2 and Civilization VII. However, these modern games coexist with several long-running live service titles on the list. It’s worth mentioning that Fortnite, which is not available on Steam, is notably absent from this list.

Times Are Changing

Live service games may not be inherently negative, but they are undeniably altering the way people engage with video games. As Piscatella explains in his discussion, it used to be that players would frequently switch from one big game to another, often purchasing new ones. However, live service games now consume a significant amount of time, and free content that’s good is hard to resist. Consequently, players are staying put within their chosen game.

It’s not simple to persuade someone to leap from a ship they’ve been contentedly sailing on for years, but Marvel Rivals managed to do just that. Despite the challenge, this game had quite a few advantages that most developers don’t have nowadays. To start with, Marvel Rivals carries the famous name and brand of Marvel. As soon as someone enters the game, they will at least be familiar with most of the characters, as well as their typical play styles. For instance, Iron Man is known for flying around and firing rockets, Spider-Man for swinging through the map, Wolverine and Black Panther for pouncing on enemies with a flurry of melee attacks. Moreover, the fact that it was free to play made it effortless to jump right in.

Another potential influential factor, albeit more conjectural, is the decline of Overwatch since its sequel, Overwatch 2, debuted in 2022. This is particularly evident in the noticeable 22% positive user reviews on Steam, an uncommon occurrence for any game, especially a highly anticipated AAA title from Blizzard. This significant drop left a void in the live service hero shooter market, allowing Marvel Rivals to seamlessly fill that gap.

The Future

As a game enthusiast, I’m pondering: What might be in store for the video game world’s future? Could it be that a multitude of favorable circumstances must fall into place for a game to achieve such unprecedented success? According to Piscatella, there’s hope for some unexpected triumphs this year and an ideal scenario where many things go right. However, he hints at the importance of new releases in 2025. With much riding on the upcoming products hitting the market this year, we can only speculate that they may help counter or reverse certain trends. Among the most eagerly awaited debuts this year are Grand Theft Auto 6 and the Nintendo Switch 2. It’ll be fascinating to see how these new releases shape the gaming landscape!

As a gamer, I’ve noticed that some of Nintendo’s most popular games aren’t showing up in the charts Piscatella is presenting. Maybe it’s because they exist in their own unique sphere. It’s possible that live service games don’t have as big an impact on Switch player numbers compared to other platforms, but I guess that’s just a theory.

In anticipation for the release, developers are said to be holding off on announcing a date for Grand Theft Auto 6, with speculation that it could break records as the largest entertainment launch ever. This anticipated blockbuster is expected to revive flagging console sales, but there’s a possibility it might mark a departure from the live service model.

Grand Theft Auto 5 still ranks among the top four most-played games on PlayStation and Xbox, with GTA Online consistently generating revenue for developer Rockstar. Given its longevity, it’s plausible that Grand Theft Auto 6 could maintain its popularity as long as its predecessor did, possibly evolving into an even more immersive live service experience to retain and engage players, encouraging them to spend money.

Grand Theft Auto 6 may not have a $100 price tag, but over the next decade it’s expected to draw out significantly more from its player base. While GTA 6 might attract new console users, I remain uncertain whether it will persuade players to move on to the next big title in just a few months or even years.

Ultimately, Rockstar is likely to make every effort to replicate the success of its previous game and keep players engaged within its platform.

Past The Peak

According to Piscatella’s report, “The overall spending on US video games reached its highest point in 2021, although it has remained relatively steady since then. The number of players and hours played also peaked during that period. The rate at which new games are being released hasn’t slowed down.” This boom in the video game industry can be attributed to the pandemic lockdowns in 2020 and 2021, when people had more time at home to play games. With the release of popular consoles like the Nintendo Switch, PlayStation 5, and Xbox Series X/S during this period, it has become challenging for many consumers to justify the costs of buying new video games, especially since there are so many high-quality free options available today.

The impact of this ongoing decline is evident everywhere we look. Yesterday alone, Warner Bros. announced the shutdown of three studios including Monolith Productions and the cancellation of the highly anticipated Wonder Woman game. Similarly, the closure of NetEase’s Seattle studio, despite Marvel Rivals’ massive success, has led to a new meme trending across social media: “Make a bad game? Fired. Make a good game? Fired. Make an incredibly successful game? Incredibly, also fired.” The gaming industry is currently experiencing a wave of layoffs, with over 14,600 developers reportedly laid off in the year 2024, and 1,200 more already let go just two months into 2025. These numbers are based on tracking by developer Farhan Noor.

The video game sector, similar to other creative industries, must be prepared to evolve flexibly. The successes of titles like Helldivers 2 and Marvel Rivals in the live service market demonstrate that even seemingly unassailable territories can be entered. However, as demonstrated by recent setbacks experienced by companies such as EA and Ubisoft with Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League and XDefiant, it’s a challenge to execute these concepts flawlessly. The industry is prone to rapid changes, and unexpected games sometimes achieve remarkable success. To foster innovation, publishers should provide room for ideas to develop without unnecessary obstacles and set achievable objectives for their games. Predicting the future of the video game industry is impossible, but it will undoubtedly be intriguing to observe its evolution in the next five to ten years.

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2025-02-27 00:33