Unpredictable Oscar Race: Will ‘Anora’ or ‘The Brutalist’ Take the Crown?

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Oscar voting is closed, and the Academy exit polls show an unpredictable ceremony ahead.

The upcoming 97th Academy Awards are drawing near, and they’re bringing one of the most unpredictable races in a while. There are 10 nominees, each offering something unique – from grandiose epics to heartfelt indie productions. However, based on past patterns and voting tendencies, it seems that a single film could potentially rule supreme.

In one area stands Sean Baker’s “Anora,” which is gathering a lot of momentum. Following its wins at the Palme d’Or, Critics Choice, DGA, PGA, and WGA awards, it has dominated the major precursors – an accomplishment seldom seen. The film aligns with the Academy’s recent trend of favoring daring, narrative films centered around a strong female protagonist (“Nomadland,” “CODA,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once”). Given the Academy’s younger and more diverse membership, this edgy indie comedy seems primed to mirror their preferences.

It’s worth noting that, as per EbMaster’s informal surveys, “Anora” and “Conclave” have been frequent choices on ballots. However, “The Brutalist” poses a potential threat – but only if viewers who have seen Brady Corbet’s 215-minute historical epic, which won Best Picture at the Golden Globes and Director at BAFTA, make up a significant enough portion of voters. If it wins, “The Brutalist” will join an exclusive club, becoming the fourth-longest best picture winner in history, alongside films like “Gone With the Wind” (1939), “Lawrence of Arabia” (1962), and “Ben-Hur” (1959). The Academy has a tendency to favor grandiose productions, such as “The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King” and “Schindler’s List”, and “The Brutalist” aligns with this pattern.

Additionally, there’s “Conclave,” a suspenseful drama set within the Vatican that garnered 11 BAFTA nominations and won four awards, including Best Film. However, it’s worth noting that BAFTA’s ability to predict Oscar winners is not always accurate – only “Oppenheimer” (2023) and “Nomadland” (2020) have matched up in the past ten years.

As a movie enthusiast, I’m eagerly anticipating the big night! Who among our favorite stars will be crowned? Whose name will be etched in gold? And what insights can we glean from past ceremonies to predict how this year’s race might unfold? Let’s delve into the mystery with five intriguing revelations and five confidential ballots.

We’ll distribute more unidentified votes ahead of the final forecasts, which we’ll disclose on February 26th.

    Baker vs. Corbet for Director

    Initially, Brady Corbet garnered numerous early directing honors, virtually cleaning up every accolade before the televised events—that is, until Sean Baker unexpectedly snatched the DGA, a title often indicative of the eventual Oscar recipient. If Baker triumphs, he could potentially win four Oscars in a single evening, making him merely the second individual to accomplish this feat (after Walt Disney) and the first to do so for the same film. The Academy tends to honor innovative independent filmmakers such as Chloé Zhao, and Baker certainly falls into that category.

    The win of Corbet at BAFTA cannot be dismissed. The last instance of a BAFTA-winning and Oscar-nominated director losing the Oscar was Sam Mendes for “1917” (2019). Critics have praised Corbet’s precise direction, with one unnamed Academy member remarking: “If RaMell Ross had been nominated for director, I don’t understand why he wasn’t, this would be a very challenging decision. However, since he wasn’t, Corbet was the obvious choice.

    In my opinion, Emilia Perez was the least impressive among the best picture nominees in this excellent year for movies.

    As a movie enthusiast, I’m thrilled to share my picks for this year’s awards season! Here are some of the categories that stood out to me:

    * Best Picture: “The Brutalist” – A gritty and intense film that left an indelible mark on me.
    * Leading Actor: Adrien Brody – He delivered a captivating performance in “The Brutalist.”
    * Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin – His portrayal in the same movie was simply unforgettable.
    * Leading Actress: Fernanda Torres – Her powerful performance in another film really moved me.
    * Supporting Actress: Isabella Rossellini – She stole the show with her remarkable acting in a different movie.
    * Animated Feature: “Inside Out 2” – I can’t wait to see how they expand on the original!
    * Cinematography: “The Brutalist” – The visuals were stunning and added so much depth to the story.
    * Costume Design: “Conclave” – The attention to detail in this movie was impressive.
    * Director: Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”) – He brought a unique vision to the big screen.
    * Documentary Feature: I’ll abstain from voting in this category.
    * Documentary Short: I’ll also abstain from voting here.
    * Film Editing: “The Brutalist” – The editing flowed seamlessly and enhanced the overall experience.
    * International Feature: I’m skipping this category this year.
    * Makeup and Hairstyling: “Wicked” – They really brought the characters to life with their work.
    * Original Score: “The Brutalist” – The music perfectly complemented the film’s intense atmosphere.
    * Original Song: “The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight” – It was a beautiful addition to an already powerful movie.
    * Production Design: “Conclave” – The sets were immersive and transported me into the story.
    * Animated Short: I’ll skip this category for now.
    * Live Action Short: I’m abstaining from voting in this category as well.
    * Sound: “Dune: Part Two” – The sound design was top-notch, really adding to the epic feel of the movie.
    * Visual Effects: “Dune: Part Two” – The visual effects were breathtaking and brought the world to life.
    * Adapted Screenplay: “Nickel Boys” – The adaptation was faithful to the source material while still feeling fresh.
    * Original Screenplay: “The Brutalist” – The originality of this script was truly remarkable.

    Timothée Chalamet ‘Too Young’ to Win Best Actor?

    Adrien Brody has taken home the Critics Choice Award, BAFTA, and Golden Globe. If he wins the Screen Actors Guild Award as well, it would be a trend that’s been broken since Russell Crowe in “A Beautiful Mind” (2002) – history is on his side not to lose the Oscar.

    Interestingly, when Brody triumphed for “The Pianist” (2003), making history as the youngest winner at 29 in that category, it was also the case that he was the last actor to claim an Oscar without having previously won any televised precursors. Might there be a possibility now, reminiscent of Russell Crowe’s shocking defeat, for Brody to face an unexpected loss as the finale nears?

    Timothée Chalamet makes an appearance, boasting a convincing argument. Several experts foresee him potentially winning the SAG award, given the impressive performance of “A Complete Unknown” with the guild. However, history isn’t on his side: No actor has ever won the best actor category solely based on a SAG win. In fact, only six actors in any category have managed this feat – among them Halle Berry (“Monster’s Ball”), Morgan Freeman (“Million Dollar Baby”), and most recently, Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”).

    Regardless, portraying Bob Dylan in a biopic fits all the criteria set by the Academy. If the Academy feels that Timothée Chalamet is too young to win an Oscar, as one voter noted – “there’s always time for him” – this could be the factor preventing his name from being announced at the ceremony. The Academy did delay Leonardo DiCaprio’s recognition until he was 41 and had received his sixth nomination.

    Voter #2: “Adrien Brody is a remarkably gifted actor, and I’m very happy for him.”

    2023 Film Awards Nominations:

    Best Picture: “Nickel Boys”, “The Brutalist”, “I’m Still Here”, “Dune: Part Two”, “Anora”
    Lead Actor: Adrien Brody for “The Brutalist”
    Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin for “A Real Pain”
    Lead Actress: Demi Moore for “The Substance”
    Supporting Actress: Monica Barbaro for “A Complete Unknown”
    Animated Feature: “Flow”
    Cinematography: “The Brutalist”
    Costume Design: “A Complete Unknown”
    Director: Sean Baker for “Anora”
    Documentary Feature: Abstention (Not Submitted)
    Documentary Short: Abstention (Not Submitted)
    Film Editing: “The Brutalist”
    International Feature: “I’m Still Here”
    Makeup and Hairstyling: “A Different Man”
    Original Score: “Emilia Pérez”
    Original Song: “El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez”
    Production Design: “Nosferatu”
    Animated Short: Abstention (Not Submitted)
    Live Action Short: Abstention (Not Submitted)
    Sound: “The Wild Robot”
    Visual Effects: “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”
    Adapted Screenplay: “Nickel Boys”
    Original Screenplay: “Anora

    Anyone Not Named Karla Sofía Gascón Can Win Best Actress

    Mikey Madison experienced a significant surge in recognition following her BAFTA win for “Anora,” particularly since the film missed out on awards for Best Picture, Director, and Screenplay. Remarkably, she still took home the award. Her performance has been praised as a “sincere and authentic acting display” by one voter and “the emergence of a shining star” by another. It’s reminiscent of Brie Larson’s role in “Room.

    Previously, Demi Moore seemed to be the front-runner for her outstanding portrayal in “The Substance.” However, if she fails to win at SAG, we might find ourselves in a situation similar to Angela Bassett post “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” with only Critics Choice Awards and Golden Globes on her list of accolades. History shows us that this could be problematic. As an industry, it appears we may have underestimated the genre bias associated with Moore’s film. One voter expressed their disdain bluntly: “I absolutely detest ‘The Substance.’ It was distasteful, excessive, and I didn’t find Demi particularly impressive.

    It’s interesting to point out that some voters express their distaste for the movie yet still support Moore. One of them shares, “She’s had an extraordinary career, and it’s her time to shine.

    Cynthia Erivo, known for her role in “Wicked,” could surprise everyone if the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) supports her. However, if the awards race becomes complicated and Moore, Madison, and Erivo all take home some prizes, Fernanda Torres from “I’m Still Here” might pull off an unexpected victory.

    One voter admitted to having watched her movie recently and previously intending to vote for Madison. However, they’ve now crossed Torres’ name off their list. The Brazilian actor has earned only a Golden Globe award, but the part – an activist battling an oppressive regime – is reminiscent of the classic Academy Award bait. Nevertheless, no performer has ever won a lead acting Oscar without being nominated by SAG and BAFTA, and only one person has won the Oscar with just a Golden Globe – George Clooney for “Syriana” (2005).

    When considering actress Karla Sofía Gascón, who plays Emilia Pérez in the title role, the controversy surrounding the film exists, though some viewers had reservations about it beforehand. The crucial point to ponder is: What impact do the tweets have on the movie’s performance at the box office?

    Voter #3: “We hardly find films similar to ‘A Complete Unknown’ being produced in Hollywood these days… It seems the studios are hesitant about them.

    Best Movie: “A Complete Unknown”
    Lead Actor: Ralph Fiennes
    Supporting Actor: Jeremy Strong
    Lead Actress: Demi Moore
    Supporting Actress: Isabella Rossellini
    Animated Feature Film: “The Wild Robot”
    Cinematography: “Dune: Part Two”
    Costume Design: “A Complete Unknown”
    Director(s): James Mangold, for “A Complete Unknown”
    Documentary Feature: “Sugarcane”
    Documentary Short Subject: “The Only Girl in the Orchestra”
    Film Editing: “Conclave”
    International Feature Film: “The Girl with the Needle”
    Makeup and Hairstyling: “The Substance”
    Original Score: “Conclave”
    Original Song: “El Mal”
    Production Design: “The Brutalist”
    Animated Short Film: “Yuck!”
    Live Action Short Film: “The Last Ranger”
    Sound: “A Complete Unknown”
    Visual Effects: “Dune: Part Two”
    Adapted Screenplay: “A Complete Unknown”
    Original Screenplay: “September 5

    Supporting Actor and Actress are Both Predictable and Chaotic

    It seems that Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”), who’s been winning every major award so far, is dominating the supporting actor category. His popularity is reminiscent of Robert Downey Jr.’s last year for “Oppenheimer.” Interestingly, Edward Norton has been mentioned a few times, but it’s Jeremy Strong, Culkin’s co-star from “Succession” and “The Apprentice,” who’s often brought up next. While this doesn’t guarantee an upset, it certainly adds intrigue to the race.

    The role of supporting actress is quite competitive this year. Zoë Saldaña (“Emilia Perez”), who has been making waves on television, is a strong contender. However, unexpected changes might occur. Initially, Ariana Grande was expected to shine in “Wicked,” but it’s the newcomers Monica Barbaro from “A Complete Unknown” and Isabella Rossellini from “Conclave” who are now gaining attention. While these performers shouldn’t be underestimated, Zoë Saldaña could potentially be the nominee that survives the potential downfall of her Spanish-language musical production.

    Voter #4: “Watching ‘The Brutalist’ took me five days, and it took me another two days to fully come out of its influence.

    2021 Film Awards Nominations:

    Best Movie: “Anora”, “Conclave”, “Wicked”, “A Complete Unknown”, “I’m Still Here”, “Emilia Perez”, “Dune: Part Two”, “The Nickel Boys”, “The Substance”, “The Brutalist”
    Lead Actor: Colman Domingo
    Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin
    Lead Actress: Mikey Madison
    Supporting Actress: Monica Barbaro
    Animated Feature Film: “Inside Out 2”
    Cinematography: “Maria”
    Costume Design: “Wicked”
    Director: Sean Baker for “Anora” (tie)
    Documentary Feature: “No Other Land”
    Documentary Short: None (abstain)
    Film Editing: “Wicked”
    International Feature Film: “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
    Makeup and Hairstyling: “Wicked”
    Original Score: “Wicked”
    Original Song: “Like a Bird” from “Sing Sing”
    Production Design: “Wicked”
    Animated Short Film: None (abstain)
    Live Action Short Film: None (abstain)
    Sound: “Wicked”
    Visual Effects: “Better Man”
    Adapted Screenplay: “Conclave”
    Original Screenplay: “A Real Pain

    Possible Twists in Screenplay and Voters Wanted More ‘Dune 2’

    Almost Famous” over “Gladiator” (2000) and “Sling Blade” over “The English Patient” (1996).

    In a revised version, “Conclave” stands out among other nominees, boasting Golden Globe and BAFTA awards. However, “The Banshees of Inisherin” also followed a similar winning trend but lost to “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” If “Conclave” is indeed a top contender for Best Picture (as many believe), it’s crucial that it takes this category, along with the Editing award (which it won at BAFTA). A potential surprise could come from RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes’ “The Nickel Boys,” as it enjoys considerable industry respect. One voter expressed frustration over the absence of Denis Villeneuve’s sequel “Dune: Part Two” in more categories. They stated, “I voted for the first part in almost every category last time. I can’t fathom how Denis hasn’t already won four Oscars! I don’t understand how the studio and, quite frankly, us Oscar voters could mess this up so badly?

    Voter #5: “I don’t know how ‘Dune’ wasn’t nominated for every category… and I hate sci-fi.”

    Best Movie: “Dune: Part Two”
    Lead Actor: Adrien Brody
    Supporting Actor: Edward Norton
    Lead Actress: Fernanda Torres
    Supporting Actress: Felicity Jones
    Animated Feature Film: Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
    Cinematography: “Dune: Part Two” (for the best photography)
    Costume Design: “Nosferatu” (for the best costume design)
    Director(s): Jacques Audiard and Emilia Pérez
    Documentary Feature: “Porcelain War”
    Documentary Short: No entry this year
    Film Editing: No entry this year
    International Film: “I’m Still Here”
    Makeup & Hairstyling: “Emilia Pérez”
    Original Score: “The Brutalist” (for the best original music score)
    Original Song: No entry this year
    Production Design: “Dune: Part Two” (for the best production design)
    Animated Short Film: No entry this year
    Live Action Short Film: No entry this year
    Sound: “Dune: Part Two” (for the best sound)
    Visual Effects: “Dune: Part Two” (for the best visual effects)
    Adapted Screenplay: “Sing Sing” (based on an existing work)
    Original Screenplay: “Anora” (written from scratch)

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2025-02-19 05:19