Job Growth in January: The Numbers That Made Economists Facepalm 🤦‍♂️

What to know:

  • U.S. January job growth came in weaker than expected at 143,000. Oops!
  • In a surprising twist, bitcoin decided to throw a little party after the news.

So, it turns out job growth in the good ol’ U.S. of A. had a bit of a hiccup in January, and not the pleasant, hiccuping-at-a-family-gathering kind. The Bureau of Labor Statistics casually dropped the number of new jobs added at 143,000, which is a touch below the wildly optimistic forecast of 170,000—an economist’s equivalent of a coffee spill on your report card. This is also a tumble from last month’s sparkling 256,000 jobs. Talk about a nosedive!

In an ironic twist for the pessimists, the unemployment rate dipped to 4%. That’s right, it’s hanging out there like a star athlete who shows up just in time for the final act while the rest are still warming up—expectations were set at 4.1%. Refreshing, isn’t it?

Meanwhile, bitcoin (BTC), under the impression that bad news could be good news, initially surged to an eye-watering $97,500, like it drank too much espresso. The DXY index decided to join in on the excitement, rising to 107.8, as if trying to reassure everyone that it was still relevant.

Now, let’s get serious for a moment. The Fed had been cutting its benchmark fed funds rate by a remarkable 100 basis points over the last four months of 2024. Juggling economic data like a circus performer, they’d all but assured investors that 2025 would follow suit. But hold your horses; a flurry of robust economic indicators and inflation metrics sent the Fed backpedaling faster than a teenager caught sneaking out. Traders, now a bit more wary, have started to think that the prospect of further policy easing could be as likely as spotting a unicorn.

Just before today’s job numbers sauntered in, the CME FedWatch was showing a rather paltry 15% chance of a rate cut in March. That’s like a lottery ticket with no winning numbers. You just knew it was going to be an interesting day!

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2025-02-07 16:46