So, listen up, I got a question for ya. What do you think happens when 26,000 Bitcoin options contracts expire, worth about $2.5 billion, on a Friday like today? 🤷♂️
This week’s expiry event is, like, a third the size of last week’s, which was a beast. So, probably not a big deal, right? I mean, the markets have already been kind of down in the dumps this week, so who knows. 🤷♂️
This week’s batch of Bitcoin options has a put/call ratio of 0.58, which means there are more long contracts expiring than shorts. The max pain point, or where most losses will happen, is at $99,500. Ouch. 🤢
And get this, the open interest (OI) is highest at the $120,000 strike price, which is like $1.7 billion, according to Deribit. There’s also about $1.3 billion in OI at the $110,000 strike price. Derivatives traders are just betting on prices going up in the future, apparently. 🤷♂️
Greeks Live, a crypto derivatives provider, said, “The market is now very divided, with BTC being strongly supported by funding from both inside and outside the crypto.” They also mentioned that altcoins, like ETH, are losing money “violently” and most cryptocurrency prices have “shrunk significantly.” Wow, that’s some harsh language. 🤦♂️
“But we can see from the options data that BTC and ETH skew have maintained a positive value. The giant whale also bought a large number of call options in the pullback, indicating that the market is still optimistic about the future as a whole.”
Skew, by the way, is the difference in implied volatility (IV) between call and put options or across different strike prices and expirations. Just in case you were wondering. 🙄
7 Feb Options Data
26,000 BTC options expired with a Put Call Ratio of 0.58, a Maxpain point of $99,500 and a notional value of $2.54 billion.
203,000 ETH options expired with Put Call Ratio of 0.46, Maxpain point of $2,950 and notional value of $560 million.
Market sentiment was…” — @GreeksLive
And let’s not forget, around 203,000 Ethereum contracts are also expiring today, with a notional value of $560 million, a put/call ratio of 0.46, and a max pain of $2,950. So, Friday’s combined crypto options expiry notional value is around $3 billion. 🤯
The total market cap has fallen just below 2% to $3.3 trillion, but it’s still in that range-bound channel that formed in mid-November. Bitcoin dipped below $96,000 on Thursday but managed to recover to $97,400 during the Friday morning Asian trading session. Still, it’s been down-trending for the past week, losing 7%. 🤷♂️
Ethereum’s not doing much better, down 3% to below $2,700. The altcoins are a sea of red, with only Tron (TRX) showing a 4.5% gain. 🤦♂️
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2025-02-07 08:58