Is the Bank of Japan About to Crush Crypto Dreams? Find Out Now!

What to know:

  • The market is currently pricing a 90% rate hike from the Bank of Japan for the meeting on Jan. 24.
  • Japan’s headline inflation year-over-year is at 2.9%, with an inflation print the day before the interest rate decision.
  • The Japanese Yen is at 156 against the U.S. dollar, the strongest in a month.

Many investors are eagerly anticipating President Trump’s inauguration on January 20th, as it could serve as a significant trigger for the price fluctuations of Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies.

As a crypto investor, I recently learned that there’s a possibility of an interest rate increase from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) coming up. According to a chart shared by analyst Michael Kramer on platform X, it seems that the market is currently anticipating a high probability of this rate hike happening on January 24, with estimates suggesting a 90% chance.

Earlier, an increase in interest rates by the BoJ significantly impacted both conventional and cryptocurrency markets. This event marked the beginning of the unraveling of the Yen carry trade at the start of August, causing Bitcoin to plummet to $49,000. Given this precedent, traders are probably preparing for another potential selloff in the current scenario.

From 2016 up until 2024, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates at a negative level; but in 2024, they raised the interest rate twice, moving it from -0.1% to 0.25%. As we approach their next meeting, the predicted rate stands at 0.45%; however, this projection could be significantly altered given that Japan will release its inflation report a day prior, on January 23rd.

Yearly headline inflation has reached 2.9%, marking a high not seen since August. An unexpectedly high inflation figure might spark concerns in the market, potentially leading to another round of the Yen carry trade liquidation.

Despite the DXY index, now at approximately 109 – its highest point since November 2022, experiencing a significant surge, it climbed from 100 at its September low.

During Donald Trump’s first term as president, the trend of the DXY index mirrored his tenure. Initially, there was an upward surge in the DXY index prior to his inauguration. However, it subsequently dropped significantly, providing a beneficial lift to risk assets. The DXY index represents the relative strength of the U.S. dollar against a group of significant international currencies.

Read More

2025-01-16 17:31