Bitcoin Still in Bull Phase But Far From Euphoric Peaks: Bitfinex Alpha

As a seasoned crypto investor who has navigated through the tumultuous seas of Bitcoin since its early days, I find the Bitfinex analysts’ predictions for 2025 intriguing. The bull market we are experiencing now, driven by institutional demand and ETFs, seems to be following a different trajectory than previous cycles. The relative stability in corrections is indeed promising, but I remain cautiously optimistic.

At present, Bitcoin is being traded at a price above $107,000. However, analysts from Bitfinex, a cryptocurrency exchange, believe that the asset has not yet reached its “exuberant highs.” Looking back at historical trends, these experts suggest that we are currently in the midst of a bullish period for the crypto market, with potential peaks occurring in either Q3 or Q4 of 2025. This timeline is approximately 450 days following the April 2024 halving event.

According to a weekly report from Bitfinex analysts on future bitcoin price predictions for 2025, they suggest that the cryptocurrency might reach a maximum of either $339,000 or $145,000. This is based on the assumption that diminishing returns will moderate the extent of gains experienced in past market cycles.

BTC Still Far From Euphoric Peaks

Bitcoin experienced a significant surge since its bear market bottom of $15,487 in November 2022, marking a whopping 573% increase. Moreover, on a yearly basis, it has gained 130%. This impressive bull run is largely attributed to robust institutional investment, individual buying, and continuous acquisitions by Bitcoin-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Currently, Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) focused on Spot Bitcoin are leading the way in the Bitcoin market. These funds collectively own over 1.13 million Bitcoins and have attracted more than $50 billion in investments.

As institutional investors and the Bitcoin ETF market boost demand for BTC, analysts predict that corrections during this bull run will likely be modest. Historical data suggests that after a halving event, Bitcoin has traditionally experienced only minor corrections when it enters its price discovery phase. For instance, in 2017, the largest decline during these stages amounted to 33.2%, whereas the 2020 cycle saw a more contained decrease of 27.1%.

During the ongoing bull market that started around mid-to-late 2023, Bitcoin’s dips have been less severe, especially after the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024. This trend is likely to persist due to institutional and ETF demand, which provides a steady buying force. As such, we anticipate that future corrections will be minimal and may last for a shorter period. (Bitfinex’s statement)

Optimistic Expectations for 2025

Despite analysts being positive about Bitcoin’s future in 2025, they have issued a caution that it may not experience gains as substantial as seen in past periods. In 2021, Bitcoin climbed approximately 40% beyond its average values; however, the pattern of decreasing returns might limit any surge to around 15-20% above the averages.

In simple terms, the prediction suggests that Bitcoin could reach its highest point between $160,000 and $200,000 around mid-2025, or possibly go up to $290,000 by early 2026, but this latter scenario is less probable.

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2024-12-17 14:40