Google Cracks Quantum: Is Your Bitcoin In Jeopardy?

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As a researcher with over two decades of experience in both cryptography and computer science, I have seen my fair share of technological advancements that could potentially disrupt established systems. However, when it comes to quantum computing and its impact on Bitcoin, I find myself in a position of cautious optimism rather than outright fear.

Bitcoin experienced an upsurge in its value on Monday, primarily due to heightened trading activity on cryptocurrency exchanges. This surge was reflected in a 3% increase in a single day and a 10% rise over the past week, as indicated by the green candles on charts.

As President-elect Donald Trump confirmed on CNBC his intention to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve, there was an increase in the storage of large amounts of Bitcoin by significant investors (often referred to as “whales”).

Trump stated, “We aim to achieve remarkable things with cryptocurrency since we don’t wish for China or any other nation to lead in this field, as they are already adopting it. Instead, we aspire to be at the forefront.

However, progress in ultra-fast quantum computing being made by Alphabet Inc., Google’s parent company, might disrupt the fundamental principles of the current blockchain system.

Additionally, if the rumors of destruction prove true, a significant portion of Bitcoin’s massive market value, currently estimated at over $2 trillion, could potentially plummet. Here’s a quick glance at what Alphabet is working on:

Google’s New Willow Quantum Chip Wows

Google’s Quantum Lab unveiled Willow in a Dec. 9 update on the Google blog.

This quantum computing chip allows each bit to assume both a 0 and a 1, but not necessarily in the traditional binary order. As a result, it’s capable of performing calculations much faster than typical graphics processing units (GPUs) like those from Nvidia.

Google stated that Willow could tackle a challenge within five minutes which, realistically, might take Frontier approximately ten quadrillion-quintillion years (equivalent to 10^25 years) to resolve.

The Hewlett Packard supercomputer named Frontier started functioning in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, in 2022 and held the title of the world’s fastest computer until November 2024 when it was outpaced by another HP supercomputer called El Capitan based in Alameda, California.

So, are your bitcoins safe?

Bitcoin Cracked? Is Quantum A Crypto Killer?

If you do the math, then you don’t have to worry.

Last June 2017, the renowned YouTube math expert known as 3Blue1Brown demonstrated an analysis of a brute force attack targeting a 256-bit encrypted password. This type of attack involves guessing and testing possible combinations. Bitcoin employs 256-bit public key encryption for its passwords, while miner fees are utilized by mining nodes to monitor and execute transactions.

Breaking through this level of security using brute force would necessitate making approximately 32 billion attempts.

By 3Blue1Brown’s math:

Even if every person on Earth possessed an immense amount of computing power surpassing that of all Google’s servers combined, and we duplicated this Earth-like planet with such individuals 4 billion times within a single galaxy, then replicated those galaxies another 4 billion times, the collective efforts of these systems, working tirelessly to brute force attack Bitcoin for over 37 times the age of the universe since the Big Bang, would still have just a 1 in 4 billion chance of stumbling upon the correct “collision” or guess.

If a powerful entity like Google or someone else, with control over a vast server farm, were to misuse their power and attempt white-collar theft of Bitcoins by manipulating the mining process, other miners would notice this irregularity. They could collectively adjust the ledger through consensus, effectively preventing the dishonest node from continuing to participate in the Bitcoin network.

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2024-12-17 10:00