As a cinephile who has spent countless hours dissecting films and analyzing performances, I must say that this year’s crop of supporting actress contenders is truly exceptional. Among them, Ariana Grande’s portrayal of Joan Baez in “Wicked” has left an indelible impression on me.
This weekend’s concurrent release of “Gladiator II” and “Wicked” brings to mind the long-awaited successor to the epic film “Barbenheimer.” The comparison may seem unavoidable given that both are major releases, one leaning more towards a female audience and the other towards males. However, it’s important to remember that these new films can achieve tremendous success without equaling or surpassing the unprecedented $235 million opening weekend of “Barbenheimer” (or its level of quality).
At the Oscars in 2024, “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” were the standout events of the awards season. Together, they amassed a total of 21 nominations and won eight, with “Oppie” taking home the Best Picture award. It’s unlikely that “Wicked” or “Gladiator,” no matter how well they perform, will come close to matching that impressive tally. But don’t worry about it!
With our anticipations now established, let’s shift our attention towards the most promising scenario. Disregarding any similarities to the two-headed juggernaut of last season, just how successful could “Wickiator” be during this year’s award ceremonies?
In this season filled with strikes and uncertainty, it was believed that the festival crops were slightly weaker compared to previous years. However, with the upcoming releases of “Dune: Part Two,” “Wicked,” and “Gladiator,” the Academy Awards’ competition seems to be receiving a much-needed boost of blockbuster energy. Currently, “Wicked” is receiving more positive reviews and stronger box office predictions, making it my top pick for Best Picture at the moment. Nevertheless, I wouldn’t be surprised if “Gladiator” also manages to sneak its way in: It’s a classic masculine epic that could resonate with the Academy’s traditional voters, who have the power to get films like “Top Gun: Maverick” and “Ford v Ferrari” onto the Best Picture list in the past.
Elsewhere, prospects for success appear to be more varied in the higher tiers. The director’s guild has a reputation for being elitist, making it a challenging endeavor for Jon M. Chu, who started his career directing films from the Step Up and G.I. Joe series, to gain recognition in this circle. Ridley Scott of Gladiator II, although he has overdue acclaim – having never won an Oscar despite the original Gladiator‘s Best Picture win – may find it difficult to secure a nomination since his last directorial nod was for Black Hawk Down. This guild seems to favor highbrow filmmakers now, so Scott’s chances could be slim. However, the screenplay category offers a glimmer of hope, as there are open spots in the Adapted category, which includes both Wicked and Gladiator. Yet, considering that the combined run time of these films exceeds five hours, some might argue that they could have been adapted more concisely.
It’s fortunate that both campaigns have the advantage of a highly praised acting role to boost their efforts. Denzel Washington’s performance in Gladiator II has been widely appreciated, with Alison Willmore from Vulture commenting that his portrayal of a ruthless political climber who wears more rings than is reasonable, makes the audience root for him. If the race unfolds favorably, Washington could potentially earn another Oscar, placing him among the three-time winners.
As a devoted cinema enthusiast, I must confess that I’m thrilled about Ariana Grande’s first significant foray into film with “Wicked.” While she’s had brief appearances in films like “Zoolander 2” and “Don’t Look Up,” this role seems to be her breakout moment. As Bilge Ebiri from our team puts it, Grande’s portrayal of Glinda in “Wicked” lends a genuine comedic structure to the character’s popular-girl superficiality.
Cynthia Erivo’s onscreen rival of Ariana Grande is also seeing positive developments. According to Peter Debruge from Variety, it’s Erivo’s exceptional close-up work that truly impresses: Her nuanced portrayal invites viewers to delve deeply into the character’s (tinted green) emotional depths. Erivo’s entrance has made an already competitive Best Actress category even more challenging. Unfortunately, Paul Mescal from Gladiator II may not be a significant contender in the Best Actor race, as his mediocre reviews suggest he might not play a key role in a rather weak field.
In the acting awards, the two films are expected to avoid direct competition. However, they’ll face off more notably in the technical categories. Interestingly, “Wicked” seems poised to lead in these contests due to a unique advantage in the below-the-line races that tend to favor gender stereotypes. In female-centric categories such as Costume Design and Production Design, “Wicked” appears to be the front-runner at this stage. If you’re optimistic about “The Substance”, it might also contend for Makeup & Hairstyling. On the other hand, “Gladiator II” may find its best chance at winning in male-dominated categories like Sound and Visual Effects, where it will battle against “Dune: Part Two”.
From a movie enthusiast’s perspective, it’s been quite some time since a sequel or prequel has managed to match the Oscar-winning prowess of films like “The Godfather” from the 1970s, with no Best Picture winner emerging in that category since then. If either of these new films were to defy the odds and claim the top prize, it would undoubtedly surprise both pundits and the laws of probability itself.
Oscar Futures: Tangled Up in … Gold?
Every week between now and January 17, when the nominations for the Academy Awards are announced, Vulture will consult its crystal ball to determine the changing fortunes in this year’s Oscar race. In our “Oscar Futures” column, we’ll let you in on insider gossip, parse brand-new developments, and track industry buzz to figure out who’s up, who’s down, and who’s currently leading the race for a coveted Oscar nomination.
Best Picture
Up
A Complete Unknown
Something’s unfolding here, and I have a feeling about it. Although critics’ reviews for James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic are yet to be released, I can assure you it surpasses the anticipations of Dylan enthusiasts. (Provided they can look past the fact that it’s an ordinary film about an extraordinary individual.) The movie’s title isn’t merely following the rule for biopics to bear an album or famous lyric; instead, A Complete Unknown refrains from attempting to decipher or clarify this enigmatic artist. Fortunately for Mangold, he can easily switch to a musical performance whenever desired. Just like how Wicked thrives on its finale “Defying Gravity,” this film boasts multiple scenes that are the equivalent of “Defying Gravity.
Up
Wicked
Prior to the release of reviews for the movie “Wicked”, there were many skeptics online who believed the film’s positive buzz was simply a corporate ploy by Universal. However, as reviews started coming in this week, it turns out they were just as positive as the early reactions from influencers. Richard Lawson, a big fan of “Wicked” on stage, says the film effectively captures the essence of the musical, striking a balance between its whimsical elements and its emotional depth, as well as its messages about tolerance and goodness. With “Wicked” expected to earn over $130 million in its opening weekend, it seems that the Best Picture category, which was previously leaning towards arthouse films, now has another blockbuster to consider.
Current Predix
Anora: This one is called Anora
Best Director
Up
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
Despite not having received a directorial nomination himself, Mangold has consistently guided several actors towards Oscar recognition, including winners like Angelina Jolie and Reese Witherspoon. His work on A Complete Unknown aligns with his previous projects: skillful and competent filmmaking that doesn’t seek the limelight. If he didn’t secure a nomination for Ford v Ferrari, it’s hard to imagine Mangold getting nominated this year. However, I predict that by March, one of his actors will have managed to sneak into the Oscars once more, ensuring Mangold gets another nomination as well.
Up
Jon M. Chu, Wicked
In simpler terms, Bilge Ebiri writes that people hoping Chu could make Oz as captivating as Peter Jackson did with Middle-earth in his Lord of the Rings films might be let down, but when Chu gets involved with the project, there’s a possibility of greatness. If only the Golden Globes had a category for Musical/Comedy directors as well.
Current Predix
Here are the film directors and their upcoming movies in a more conversational style:
Best Actor
Up
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Kill it, Timmy, kill it! Chalamet had ample time to ready himself to portray Dylan – the role was initially announced in the early months of 2020 – and he wisely utilized the extended wait. Initially, it’s disconcerting to hear that distinctive Voice coming from that Familiar Face, but once you adjust, it’s tough not to be captivated by how he becomes one with the character, exposing the arrogance concealed beneath Dylan’s genius. I’ve been on the hunt for a worthy contender for the fifth spot in Best Actor. Given the Academy’s fondness for music biopics, it could very well be him, sweetheart.
Up
Hugh Grant, Heretic
Last weekend’s Governors Awards left me thinking I was watching a stand-up set from the best comedian in town. Grant stole the show with a witty introduction for honorary Oscar winner Richard Curtis. (“Was that an actual Oscar he received?”) His charisma might not be enough to convince the Academy to give A24’s horror flick a shot, but I can’t help but wonder if there were some Independent Spirit Awards judges in the crowd?
Current Predix
Actors: Adrien Brody in “The Harsh One”, Timothée Chalamet in “A Stranger Unknown”, Daniel Craig in “Uncommon (or Non-traditional)”, Colman Domingo in “Sing Sing Song”, Ralph Fiennes in “Gathering (or Vatican Council)
Best Actress
Up
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Among all individuals, it was Cynthia Erivo who benefited most significantly following the conclusion of the “Wicked” embargo. Instead of being captivated by Ariana Grande’s glamour, film critics found themselves mesmerized by Erivo’s profound emotional range. Peter Bradshaw, a renowned critic, remarked that she was the cinematic equivalent of Rushmore: charismatic, arrogant, and vulnerable. He went on to describe her as having a gravitational pull that made everything else on screen seem insignificant and impossible to turn away from. It seems as though Erivo’s expressive eyes speak volumes without the need for words.
Down
Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun
A box-office tidbit courtesy of my colleague Joe Reid: Sony Pictures Classics put The Outrun back in nearly 150 screens, hoping to take advantage of the pre-”Wickiator” lull. Even that couldn’t get the Orkney addiction drama to crack the $1 million mark. Can Ronan’s candidacy, er, outpace her film’s underperformance?
Current Predix
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked; Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez; Angelina Jolie, Maria; Nicole Kidman, Babygirl; Mikey Madison, Anora
Best Supporting Actor
Down
Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
In the original 1987 stage production of “The Piano Lesson“, Jackson played a role, and he reprised that role for the 2022 Broadway revival of the play. Many members of the cast from the Broadway show are also in the film adaptation. Before the film’s release, it seemed like Jackson was on track to receive his first nomination since “Pulp Fiction“. However, Bilge Ebiri argues that the transition from stage to screen weakens Jackson’s character’s defining moment. According to Ebiri, although the essence of the story remains impactful in the film, the dialogue loses some of its power, making it more about the narrative itself rather than the man telling it. With the movie now available on Netflix, initial buzz has been diminishing.
Up
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
In a somewhat uncharacteristic turn, Norton portrays a more endearing, nerdy side reminiscent of his role in “Moonrise Kingdom.” This change has Pete Seeger’s character bringing out this previously hidden charm. While some folk music enthusiasts might question the film’s interpretation of Seeger – as he embodies the traditional scene challenged by Dylan – it remains unclear if the performance carries enough weight for an award nomination. However, in the role, Norton charms as a cheerful, wide-eyed version of Kermit the Frog.
Current Predix
As a seasoned movie critic, I recently had the pleasure of watching an intriguing lineup of films. Kieran Culkin delivers a captivating performance in “A Real Pain,” a story that explores the complexities of human emotions. Clarence Maclin’s “Sing Sing” is a rhythmic and energetic musical drama that had me tapping my feet throughout. Guy Pearce shines in “The Brutalist,” a gritty, thought-provoking film that will leave you questioning the nature of power. Stanley Tucci’s “Conclave” offers a compelling behind-the-scenes look at the Vatican, while Denzel Washington returns to the big screen as the titular gladiator in “Gladiator II,” a sequel that promises more action and drama than its predecessor. Each of these films offers a unique cinematic experience, making it an exciting time to be a movie lover!
Best Supporting Actress
Up
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
In the revamped movie, it’s Deadwyler who delivers an outstanding performance, eclipsing others in the cast (previously played by Danielle Brooks on Broadway). According to Robert Daniels, her performances are electrifying, whether they’re tender sighs or passionate speeches. He even goes as far as to call her the film’s “heart and soul.” Similar to Zoe Saldaña in ‘Emilia Pérez,’ Deadwyler seems to share the leading role. However, given that this is an ensemble piece where each character gets their moment in the limelight, it feels fitting. Post her snub for ‘Till,’ we should never underestimate a Deadwyler nomination, but this exceptional work is certainly worthy of an Oscar nod.
Up
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
In the biopic about Dylan, there’s a love triangle where both women play characters similar to Betty. Elle Fanning, who embodies her role from “Ginger & Rosa” as a passionate and sensitive activist, takes on a character that continues the narrative of one of Dylan’s early girlfriends. However, it was Barbaro who truly shone, not just capturing Joan Baez’s strong moral core but also her powerful, crystal-clear soprano voice. (Full disclosure: She, Chalamet, and I studied vocals under the same coach.) “A Complete Unknown” may struggle with the issue of two supporting roles that overshadow each other during awards season. Nevertheless, for an actress I primarily know from “Top Gun: Maverick,” this is a remarkable breakout performance.
Current Predix
Danielle Deadwyler in “The Piano Lesson”; Ariana Grande in “Wicked”; Felicity Jones in “The Brutalist”; Saoirse Ronan in “Blitz”; Zoe Saldaña in “Emilia Pérez
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2024-11-23 20:00