Even Fox News Saw a Close 2024 Election. Then the Voting Data Came In

As a seasoned cinephile who has witnessed countless political dramas unfold on the silver screen of American politics, I find myself captivated by the latest developments at Fox News. The intricate dance between technology and democracy, as portrayed through their VoteCast venture, is nothing short of a masterclass in modern journalism.


As the clock struck election night, even I, a fervent supporter, couldn’t help but harbor doubts about Donald Trump’s clear advantage over Kamala Harris, not even the executives at Fox News Channel were convinced.

According to Arnon Mishkin, who oversees Fox News’ decision desk, at 5 p.m., the election was expected to be extremely tight. Various individuals analyzed the data, suggesting that it might favor Trump or Harris.

In just a few hours, events began unfolding differently – and Fox News viewers got wind of this change firsthand. Fox News managed to declare several states before many of its rivals, including an essential loss by the Harris campaign in Pennsylvania during the early morning hours, which significantly influenced the election in favor of Trump.

In the past decade, the company has invested heavily in innovative voter technology, shifting away from traditional exit polls and towards collecting on-location data from each state. This project, named VoteCast, is a collaboration between The Associated Press and Fox News. It employs extensive online surveys of registered voters, providing insights that were previously less accessible. As Mishkin explains, there seems to be some indication that individuals who vote in a certain way may be less inclined to invest time or complete questionnaires. This observation has been consistent over the years.

The setup has been advantageous for Fox News. As early as 2018 in the midterm elections, the network predicted that Democrats were likely to win control of the U.S. House of Representatives, a prediction that NBC News and CNN did not match until much later in the evening. In 2020, Fox News notably declared Arizona for Joe Biden – a call that faced considerable backlash from its conservative audience, although it ultimately proved accurate based on the final results.

Similar to numerous other news sources, Fox News often attracts a larger viewer base in the months preceding a presidential election. This trend is significant because it allows Fox Corporation to achieve one of its long-term objectives: appealing not only to conservative viewers, but also to independents and Democrats. These additional viewership demographics can then be leveraged to secure a diverse range of sponsors. Given that all major networks are expected to experience subscriber loss over the next two years as audiences shift from traditional TV to streaming video, showcasing a widely engaged audience has become increasingly important.

Despite a decline in overall viewership for TV news during election nights, the network still holds significant appeal, as evident on Election Night. Fox News Channel emerged as the most-watched network last Tuesday, boasting 9.8 million viewers tuning in to the returns between 7 p.m. and 11 p.m., according to Nielsen data. However, fewer Americans chose to watch TV news for election results this year compared to previous elections. The total Election Night audience across all networks dropped to 42.3 million people, a significant decrease from the 56.9 million viewers in 2020 during the pandemic and the 71.4 million viewers in 2016.

According to Fox News’ Mishkin, the voting technology used by the network played a crucial role in enabling its hosts and experts to present a definitive story to viewers promptly. From the very beginning, it was evident to him that Trump and Harris were competing for a relatively small group of undecided voters. By the point Biden withdrew from the race, Mishkin stated that around 90% of the electorate already knew who they would vote for, leaving just 10% still undecided.

I found myself quite taken aback by the 2016 election results when Trump secured the presidency for the first time. However, in 2024, I expressed that while his victory wasn’t an absolute shock, many of us thought it would be a close race. We all knew he had a chance at winning.

The executive aims to ensure some enhancements to the process are set in place before the 2026 midterms. He emphasizes the increasing significance of knowing not only the votes cast on Election Day, but also those sent in early by mail. In states where a small number of large counties greatly impact the final tally, such data could be crucial.

He’s interested in obtaining more detailed data reports from specific precincts, but it might be difficult due to the fact that most states don’t record early votes at a precinct level; they report them by county instead. This aspect of news reporting requires careful attention to details.

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2024-11-11 19:46