Bring on the Oscars Chaos

As a film enthusiast with over three decades of experience under my belt, I must say that this year’s Academy Awards race is shaping up to be quite intriguing! The supporting actress category seems particularly captivating, with some performers who could arguably be considered leads vying for recognition.

Today is the last day to sign up for Vulture’s Movies Fantasy League. After familiarizing yourself with this year’s preliminary film predictions, you can assemble your team right here to compete for accolades during awards season (and win some exciting prizes)!

Reflecting on the past year, I found myself grappling with the void left by Hollywood’s extended hiatus due to the Writers Guild and Screen Actors Guild strikes. The ensuing months saw a staggering halt in production for approximately 30 films, while an equally significant number of potential projects never even got off the ground.

For the future of the industry, there’s some ambiguity. However, when it comes to the 2025 Oscars, we’re in for a highly unpredictable race! Unlike the past two seasons where the Best Picture winner was typically decided by Labor Day, this year is shaping up to be an open field. There’s no clear favorite like “Everything Everywhere All at Once” or “Oppenheimer” waiting in the wings. Moreover, the absence of renowned directors such as Scorsese, Spielberg, and Tarantino means that the Oscars will return to their original spirit – anyone could win, and anyone could falter. In the coming months, you’ll likely find yourself debating a Netflix musical about trans empowerment, a comedic film set in a strip club, a captivating pope drama, or an extended biopic of a fictional architect. I can’t recall a more enigmatic awards season, and I’m genuinely excited for the unpredictability that lies ahead!

After the conclusion of film festivals such as Venice, Telluride, Toronto, and soon New York, it’s now time to assess the developing trends in the cinematic world. Over the next five months, I will lead you through a series of highs and lows in Vulture’s weekly Oscar Futures column, as well as our Gold Rush newsletter. We will kick off our analysis with an extremely preliminary, speculative glance at the six most significant categories.

In Picture and Director, Few Sure Bets

2021 seems to be an open year for Oscars as the initial nine months lacked the usual crowd of heavyweight Oscar contenders. However, I believe only one film is virtually assured of a Best Picture nomination: Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two, which appears poised to gather numerous craft nominations and potentially earn Villeneuve the directing nod he missed on Part One. Yet, much like the Lord of the Rings trilogy, any significant recognition for the cast may have to wait until the series concludes. There might be space for Greg Kwedar’s Sing Sing, a moving tale about a prison theater group; despite not achieving the success A24 anticipated, it demonstrates that a small summer release can regain attention during the fall and winter, as seen with CODA. Luca Guadagnino’s Challengers, a steamy tennis drama, will need to persuade voters that this racy threesome is in fact a serious work of art worthy of awards recognition. (Guadagnino also has another challenging project coming later this year, the William S. Burroughs adaptation Queer, creating a competition between topspin and bottoming.)

For true cinephiles, the excitement of Oscar season begins in May, as the best of international cinema premieres at Cannes. Remarkably, three out of the last four Palme d’Or winners have received Best Picture nominations, which is a promising sign for this year’s winner, “Anora“, Sean Baker’s fresh take on “Pretty Woman” that seamlessly blends humor and drama. Another standout from Cannes was Jacques Audiard’s “Emilia Pérez“, a highly controversial film that my colleague Bilge Ebiri compared to a musical fusion of “Mrs. Doubtfire ” and “Sicario“. The film features Selena Gomez and was acquired by Netflix, which means it will be the center of conversation in America for anywhere from four months to four days. Both “Emilia Pérez ” and “Anora ” finished second and third, respectively, in the People’s Choice voting at the Toronto International Film Festival, suggesting they are strong contenders for Best Picture nominations.

Other than these events, the race for many begins with the trio of festivals – Venice, Telluride, and Toronto – that usually take place around Labor Day. This year, I was in Venice where the standout film was Brady Corbet’s lengthy production, “The Brutalist,” a film that carries significant weight and ambition, deliberately prompting comparisons to “There Will Be Blood” and “The Godfather.” (By the way, Francis Ford Coppola has another film about architecture, “Megalopolis,” but it seems destined for the Razzies.) Corbet managed to win the Best Director prize at Venice; however, the Golden Lion was given to Pedro Almodóvar’s first English-language feature, “The Room Next Door.” With such a warm reception, could this be the year that Spanish legend Almodóvar finally secures his first Best Picture nomination?

At Telluride and TIFF, audiences were excited by Edward Berger’s political drama “Conclave” and Jason Reitman’s comedy “Saturday Night”. Tim Fehlbaum’s Munich-hostage docudrama “September 5” was also well-received, but there are concerns about how it may be perceived in a post-October 7 world. The performances in Malcolm Washington’s August Wilson adaptation “The Piano Lesson“, Jesse Eisenberg’s film “A Real Pain“, and Mike Leigh’s comeback film “Hard Truths” were highly praised by critics. RaMell Ross’s film “Nickel Boys” was the most challenging film of the season, earning comparisons to “The Zone of Interest” for its innovative POV style, similar to an arthouse version of “Peep Show“. “Nickel Boys” also opened the New York Film Festival, while the closing-night honors go to Steve McQueen’s upcoming film “Blitz“, which combines two favorites among Oscar voters: World War II and Saoirse Ronan.

With an increasing number of international members, the Academy frequently honors world-class filmmakers such as Justine Triet and Ryusuke Hamaguchi in the Picture and Director categories. Additionally, Emilia Pérez, a Spanish-language film directed by a French filmmaker, is also generating buzz. However, one of the most intriguing international contenders could be Mohammad Rasoulof’s The Seed of the Sacred Fig, an Iranian family drama that garnered attention when its director fled the country to avoid an eight-year prison sentence handed down by a court system his film criticizes. Currently residing in Germany, Sacred Fig has been chosen as their official Oscar submission.

Coming up next are several highly anticipated films: Ridley Scott’s “Gladiator 2”, a sequel to an Oscar-winning movie; Jon M. Chu’s “Wicked”, an adaptation of the initial half of the renowned musical; and James Mangold’s “A Complete Unknown”, a biopic about the lesser-known Nobel laureate, Robert Zimmerman. Meanwhile, Robert Zemeckis will de-age Tom Hanks and Robin Wright for “Here”, while director Robert Eggers will reimagine Dracula with “Nosferatu”. If these films resonate with audiences, they might inject some mainstream popularity into a season that could benefit from it. With fewer guaranteed hits, unconventional choices like these may have a chance to slip in. Could this be the year where we see critically-acclaimed animated movies such as “The Wild Robot” or documentaries with heartwarming and politically relevant stories like “Will and Harper” make it into the Best Picture ten?

It’s possible you’ve observed that there aren’t many women’s names mentioned in the sections above. The prospects for female filmmakers this year could hinge on the Academy acknowledging the bold gender-related themes in Halina Reijn’s movie, Babygirl, or a foreign film like Rungano Nyoni’s On Becoming a Guinea Fowl gaining traction and moving up to major productions.

Will A24 Dominate the Best Actor Race?

Colman Domingo continues his award-winning streak with a heartfelt performance in ‘Sing Sing’, following his Rustin nomination. Adrien Brody delves deep into emotions as a troubled architect in ‘The Brutalist’. Daniel Craig sets aside all spy suaveness to portray a heartbroken addict in ‘Queer’.

60% of the possible Best Actor nominees might come from A24 productions, but there’s a potential issue: All three films are distributed by A24. At some point, they may need to focus their resources because the film “Queer” had mixed festival reception and Craig seems less likely after that. If Sebastian Stan’s disfigured character in “A Different Man” gains popularity, A24 could have four nominees – though Stan is also nominated for playing Donald Trump in the controversial biopic “The Apprentice”.

Some Oscars trivia: The long-overdue Ralph Feinnes has only ever been nominated for Best Picture winners, which could be a good-luck charm in the likely event he earns a third nod for shepherding the proceedings in Conclave. If John David Washington gets in for his brother Malcolm’s The Piano Lesson, the nepo king would be the first actor directed by a sibling to be nominated since Talia Shire in The Godfather Part II. Would Ethan Herisse count as a lead actor in Nickel Boys, even if his face is rarely seen onscreen?

Typically, the Academy tends to favor actors over thirty years old, but this winter sees two promising 28-year-olds vying for their second Oscar nominations. In “Gladiator 2,” Paul Mescal will take on the award-winning role previously held by Russell Crowe. In “A Complete Unknown,” Timothee Chalamet faces an even greater challenge, embodying Bob Dylan. If he succeeds, a young actor being nominated for a music biopic is something Oscar voters often find hard to resist.

In this year’s Best Actor category, the competition seems less fierce compared to previous years, but it’s still strong enough that I doubt even a past winner like Joaquin Phoenix will be able to secure another victory for the lackluster film “Joker: Madness Duet.” I believe he had his moment there.

In the Best Actress Bloodbath, It’s Newcomers Versus Veterans

If Anora and Emilia Pérez both end up nominated for Best Picture, it’s quite possible that the Best Actress category will serve as the supporting act. Mikey Madison, portraying Anora, is poised for a breakthrough performance with a powerful final scene that could earn her rave reviews from audiences. If Madison manages to win over mature Academy voters in the same way her character captivates her VIP clients, keep an eye out for her. However, on the very same day Anora won at Cannes, Emilia Pérez’s Karla Sofia Gascon shared the Best Actress award with three of her fellow actresses. Gascon, a seasoned Spanish TV star, is currently leading in the race as a cartel leader who transitions, then endeavors to make amends for past transgressions. (As I mentioned earlier, this film has been quite controversial.) Should Gascon become the first openly trans actress to be nominated for an Oscar, she would make history.

In anticipation of their arrival, a group of former champions are planning to challenge these fresh entrants. At the onset of Venice, Netflix acquired Pablo Larraín’s film titled “Maria“, featuring Angelina Jolie‘s comeback performance as opera legend Maria Callas. The critics on the Lido have criticized Maria for being more dignified and less flamboyant compared to Larraín’s previous biopics, Jackie and Spencer. However, this could potentially boost Jolie’s chances of securing her first nomination since 2008’s “Changeling“. A year later, Julianne Moore has opted for a different strategy after causing surprise with her supporting role in “May December“, as she gears up for “The Room Next Door” where she and co-star Tilda Swinton, who portray old friends reunited after one’s terminal diagnosis, will both vie for lead roles. The dual-lead strategy hasn’t been successful since “Thelma and Louise“, but their unconventional approach is certainly admirable.

Discussing multi-Oscar nominees yet to claim their awards, there seemed to be a general agreement at TIFF that the movie “Nightbitch,” starring Amy Adams, was an intriguing miss rather than a potential Oscar win for her. Conversely, Saoirse Ronan’s Orkney addiction drama, “The Outrun,” garnered more positive responses on the festival circuit; however, given its small scale and fierce competition, there’s a risk it may get overshadowed by bigger productions. Additionally, Ronan has another film, “Blitz,” where she plays a supporting role.

Following the victory of Emma Stone for “Poor Things,” two seasoned actresses are poised to challenge the limits set by the Academy regarding sex and nudity. Nicole Kidman, who clinched Best Actress at Venice, delivers a compelling portrayal as a robotics CEO being manipulated by her intern in “Babygirl.” On the other hand, Demi Moore stars in “The Substance,” a body-horror film that explores aging and makes “Babygirl” seem as tame as “Out of Africa.” In comparison to the graphic scenes of “The Substance,” the unsympathetic character in “Hard Truths,” portrayed by Marianne Jean-Baptiste, might be more palatable. Returning to work with Mike Leigh after her Oscar-nominated role in “Secrets and Lies,” Jean-Baptiste delivers a powerful performance as a woman who finds it impossible to have a pleasant encounter with anyone.

Let’s not overlook the talented actresses like Zendaya from Challengers and June Squibb from Thelma, both of whom might use their AARP Movies for Grownups award as a stepping stone towards an Oscar. Furthermore, it wouldn’t be surprising if we reserve a seat for Cynthia Erivo from Wicked, given her exceptional talent for earning awards; if she wins the Oscar, she would have achieved an EGOT before reaching 40.

Will There Be Another Double-Up in Best Supporting Actor?

In a recurring pattern, the Supporting Actor category tends to be the last one to gain attention, given its reliance on coattail nominations. However, at this stage, there are potential nominees that stand out. For instance, Guy Pearce from “The Brutalist” delivers an over-the-top performance as a self-important industrial captain, reaching new levels of camp. Similarly, Clarence Maclin in “Sing Sing” might secure a nod for his authentic portrayal of himself as a first-time professional actor.

This past season marked a while since two actors from the same film were nominated in the supporting actor category, even though ‘Poor Things’ came very close with Willem Dafoe finishing just outside the top 5. GoldDerby predicts that Stanley Tucci and John Lithgow from ‘Conclave’ are strong contenders, but I can’t help but feel that Carlos Diehz has more impactful scenes. In ‘Gladiator 2’, Denzel Washington and Pedro Pascal play heavyweights near the Colosseum. It remains to be seen if ‘Anora’ is powerful enough to bring Mark Eydelshteyn’s naive rich kid into the picture; I wonder if Neon has the confidence to also campaign for Yura Borisov’s character, a ruffian with a golden heart.

Amongst the two actors from The Golden Compass who are currently in the limelight this season, I find myself more inclined to wager on Harris Dickinson, the rising star from Babygirl, whose electrifying performance at Venice left everyone spellbound, as opposed to Drew Starkey of Queer, whose acting style seems subtler. Just like Ronan, we should keep a keen eye on Dickinson’s upcoming projects, which include Blitz and a role under the direction of Paul Weller from The Jam, who is playing the lovable grandfather character. Although Elliott Heffernan is reportedly the lead in that movie, given his young age, unofficial Oscar rules suggest we should also keep an eye on him as well.

I’m equally eager to catch a campaign for Adam Pearson from the movie “A Different Man,” as he significantly alters the entire film’s direction. Additionally, Brandon Turner is remarkably impactful in “Nickel Boys.” Recently, Amazon revealed that both young actors from “Challengers,” Mike Faist and Josh O’Connor, are vying for supporting roles. This puts voters in a challenging position, as they must decide between these two where Zendaya couldn’t – make a choice.

Best Supporting Actress Could Be a Battle of the Co-Leads

Interestingly, the competition for the Best Supporting Actress award is anticipated to revolve around two actresses who, in many ways, seem to be playing leading roles. In the musical ‘Emilia Pérez’, Zoe Saldana’s tough attorney character serves as the story’s primary viewpoint, while Danielle Deadwyler’s role in ‘The Piano Lesson’ has been reimagined as the film’s main dramatic focus. While there are valid justifications for categorizing them as supporting actors, it’s worth noting that the Academy often tends to honor Black women in secondary roles, with ten winners in this category compared to only one lead actress winner. This could raise a few eyebrows given this historical trend.

Which of the actual contenders for the supporting actress category stand out? Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, who was nominated three years ago for ‘King Richard’, shines in ‘The Nickel Boys’. In ‘Emilia Pérez’, she acts alongside Zoe Saldana; Selena Gomez also appears here, bringing a unique advantage to the role: more Instagram followers than any other woman globally. Ariana Grande is also up for a nomination in this category for ‘Wicked’, as is Lady Gaga for ‘Joker: Folie à Deux’. This race could feel like a chart-topping hit list from 2016’s Billboard Top 40.

Felicity Jones could coattail as The Brutalist’s long-suffering wife, though she may be hampered by not showing up until the movie’s less-loved second half. Conclave nun Isabella Rossellini has been a fixture on pundits’ lists, but she’s in only a handful of scenes and, for my money, doesn’t have the kind of fiery clip that got Judd Hirsch nominated for The Fabelmans. Still, as Jamie Lee Curtis proved, we shouldn’t underestimate a never-nominated scion of Old Hollywood.

A year ago, I would have considered Natasha Lyonne, Carrie Coon, or Elizabeth Olsen from “His Three Daughters” as potential dark horses; however, with so many other Netflix competitors vying for the spotlight, I’m starting to question if they’re still strong contenders. On the other hand, Joan Chen in “Didi” might be a worthy candidate for the Rachel McAdams Lovable Long-Shot Award.

We’ll need to watch “Blitz” to find out how Saoirse Ronan and Toni Collette perform. The same goes for Clint Eastwood’s portrayal of Juror No. 2. Don’t underestimate Clint Eastwood’s recent work, as he managed to get Kathy Bates nominated for “Richard Jewell”. Anything can happen!

2024-10-03 23:55