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Solana Fell 65%. The Chart Says This Pain Has More to Give

Solana’s price has dropped by 65%, and experts believe it hasn’t hit its lowest point yet. Based on technical analysis – including Fibonacci levels, price gaps, and trading volume – they predict SOL could fall to between $20 and $32.

Trading volume on Solana has fallen to $2.3 billion this week. While that’s down significantly from its high of around $6 billion in May 2025, this decline isn’t necessarily a positive sign – and it’s concerning.

According to a post by MooninPapa on X (formerly Twitter), Solana has fallen 65% from its peak and may not have hit its lowest point yet. In a detailed video, MooninPapa explained why he believes Solana will continue to decline, pointing to broken support levels, potential price targets based on Fibonacci analysis, and unfilled price gaps. He concludes that all the evidence currently suggests a bearish outlook.

The Support Line That Held for Years Just Snapped

Solana’s price touched a low in December 2020 and again in December 2022, creating a trendline that it bounced off twice – once in June 2023 and again in September. This seemed like a significant support level. However, in November 2023, the price briefly dipped below this level and then closed below it. According to an analysis by MooninPapa, this support has now been broken and is unlikely to return.

Solana’s price has been moving sideways for the past four months, forming a pattern that resembles a bear flag, though not quite a full one. Importantly, this sideways movement followed a downward trend, which is a key factor to consider.

Solana’s price has followed a similar pattern before each of the last two significant drops. Since October 2025, this has happened three times: the price goes up, breaks above its 50-day moving average, then falls back below it, trades sideways for a while, and finally hits a new low. We’re seeing that same pattern unfold again now.

The Fibonacci Numbers Nobody Wants to Say Out Loud

In February, Solana rebounded from a key technical level of $68.76, which some traders saw as a sign the price had bottomed out. However, one trader, MooninPapa, disagreed, arguing that simply bouncing off that level wasn’t enough to confirm a bottom. Falling below $68.76 could lead to a further drop, potentially reaching $45.60, and even lower to around $21.93 where a significant price gap exists.

Solana experienced a significant price increase in late 2023, jumping from $22 to $123. This created a ‘fair value gap’ – a price range where trading activity was limited. That gap hasn’t been fully addressed yet, although the price dip in February briefly touched part of it. Currently, a further price decrease of up to 74% – down to $20 – is possible. However, some analysts, like MooninPapa, believe a more likely bottom would be between $30 and $32, a level supported by Fibonacci retracement and trendline analysis around $32.45.

On-balance volume remains below its average and is trending downwards. The weekly TBO indicator signaled a sell opportunity in December 2024, and that signal hasn’t changed. An analyst who accurately predicted a 77% drop in Solana’s price has observed similar patterns now, highlighting $72 as a key support level to watch before the market’s next significant move.

Solana’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently reached 16.26, the lowest it’s ever been. While the RSI has since started to recover – a potentially positive sign confirmed on May 4th – analyst MooninPapa cautioned that this isn’t necessarily a reason to buy. He sees it as an early warning that the price might start to go up, but not a definitive signal. Currently, the chart hasn’t given a clear ‘buy’ signal yet, and is waiting for further confirmation.

If Bitcoin‘s price continues to fall, Solana will likely drop even more. The recent surge in meme coins caused many individual investors to lose money, and it will take a long time to regain their confidence. As one X user, MooninPapa, stated, he isn’t holding Solana and prefers to wait for a lower price before buying.

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2026-05-31 19:18