Final Emmy Predictions: Bear With Us, the Shō Must Go Un

As a long-time fan of late-night comedy, I have to say that my personal preference leans more towards the witty and quick-witted banter of Seth Meyers on Late Night. His ability to keep the conversation fresh, funny, and insightful night after night is truly commendable. However, if we’re talking about who will win in this year’s Emmy Awards, I can’t help but feel that The Daily Show will take home the trophy once again. The show has a rich history of success, and with the ongoing political climate, it seems fitting for viewers to look back to the era when Jon Stewart was dismantling right-wing talking points with such finesse.


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Do you recall how things stood at the commencement of the 2023-24 television season? The strikes were ongoing, undoubtedly. Jamie Lee Curtis was experiencing a bipolar episode in a congested kitchen in the suburbs of Chicago. It was anticipated that FX’s adaptation of the book “Shōgun” would reach its conclusion. A little over a year ago, we initiated a TV season that concludes tonight at the Peacock Theater (really?), Los Angeles. The Emmy voters have already submitted their ballots. All that’s left is for the winners to give their speeches.

No, that’s a lie. Because first we make our predictions as to who will be the ones making those speeches. After spending Emmy season digging into everything from Reservation Dogs’s long-overdue Emmy recognition to The Bear facing backlash to The Morning Show’s insane number of acting nominations, we’re ready to put all that raw data to good use.

Outstanding Drama Series

The Crown (Netflix)
Fallout (Prime Video)
The Gilded Age (HBO)
The Morning Show (Apple TV+)
Mr. & Mrs. Smith (Prime Video)
Shōgun (FX)
Slow Horses (Apple TV+)
3 Body Problem (Netflix)

The impressive 14-win performance by Shogun at the Creative Arts Emmys last weekend suggests that any concerns about the FX series falling short are unwarranted. There’s plenty of excitement for this show among different Academy branches. However, there’s a potential issue to consider: whether another show might be more favored by the acting branch. The SAG Awards in February were not helpful in this regard, as Succession was still being celebrated at that time. If actors are going to rally around a series, it might be The Morning Show with its ten acting nominations. But is it conceivable that The Morning Show would outshine Shogun in the Outstanding Drama Series category? Could we stomach such an outcome?

Will Win: Shōgun

Should Win: Shōgun

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Idris Elba – “Idris Elba, in the movie ‘Hijack’

For some of these candidates, the nomination itself was a triumph. Kudos to Walton Goggins for managing to secure a substantial number of votes from academy members for his character, a noseless, radiated cowboy known as “The Ghoul.” Kudos to Idris Elba for demonstrating his star power by securing a nomination for a TV show titled “[Hijack]”. Kudos to Dominic West for finally receiving an Emmy nomination after being consistently overlooked for his performances in both “The Wire” and “The Affair.

But this category will come down to Gary Oldman and Hiroyuki Sanada. Both are veteran actors in their own right: Oldman amassed critically acclaimed performances through the ’80s and ’90s before winning an Oscar for playing Winston Churchill under a bunch of prosthetic jowl-work. He’s an exquisite slob on Slow Horses, a sharp intelligence agent cosplaying as a wet cigarette of a man. Meanwhile, Sanada worked for decades in Japanese and Hong Kong cinema before crossing over to the U.S. in the aughts. Shōgun very much feels like the role his career has been leading up to, a performance that requires deep reserves of gravitas, stoicism, and a little humor. While I could see Oldman winning, he’s already got his big award; this feels like the pinnacle moment for Sanada, and I think voters sense that too.

Will win: Hiroyuki Sanada

Should win: Hiroyuki Sanada

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Jennifer Aniston stars in “The Morning Show”, while Carrie Coon plays a role in “The Gilded Age”. Maya Erskine is featured in “Mr. & Mrs. Smith”, Anna Sawai can be seen in “Shōgun”, and Imelda Staunton acts in “The Crown”. Reese Witherspoon, just like Jennifer Aniston, is part of the cast for “The Morning Show”.

If Imelda Staunton doesn’t win the Emmy (and it seems like she might not), she’ll be remembered as the only Queen Elizabeth from The Crown who didn’t receive an Emmy award. If any of the leading actresses from The Morning Show were nominated, I would consider that a greater challenge; the fact that there are ten acting nominations suggests that there are many voters who are fans of the show. However, with Jennifer Aniston and Reese Witherspoon splitting votes among themselves, this could only benefit Anna Sawai, who was already the favorite for her role in Shogun. One of the factors contributing to the series’ success beyond its literary origins was how central the character of Lady Mariko, played by Sawai, became to the story, with her fate serving as the most memorable moment of the season. Sawai’s performance is exceptional in this category, and it would be a source of embarrassment if she didn’t win the award.

Will win: Anna Sawai

Should win: Anna Sawai

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Tadanobu Asano is known for his role in Shogun

Jack Lowden’s delightful alternative is his freshly-minted marriage to Saoirse Ronan. Jonathan Pryce’s consolation prize is avoiding a return to “The Three-Body Problem”. This category may boil down to the gentlemen of “Shogun” versus the gentlemen of “The Morning Show”.

So why do I think Tadanobu Asano and Takehiro Hira will end up eating into each other’s vote totals, while I don’t think the same will happen to the Morning Show trio? For one thing, I think a certain amount of Jon Hamm voters will take the opportunity to vote for his Fargo performance in Lead Actor in a Limited Series instead (if for no better reason than he’s playing a more dynamic character there). For another, I don’t think Mark Duplass is in the same league as his fellow nominated co-stars. All of which adds up to Morning Show voters feeling free to funnel all their support to Billy Crudup, which is ultimately fine, because his performance on TMS season three is easily the best work he’s done on the show (and he was already its acting MVP). Crudup won this award in 2020, and he’s primed to do so again.

Will win: Billy Crudup

Should win: Billy Crudup

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Christine Baranski is featured in “The Gilded Age”, Nicole Beharie in “The Morning Show”, Elizabeth Debicki in “The Crown”, Greta Lee and Karen Pittman in “The Morning Show”, and Lesley Manville and Holland Taylor in “The Crown” on TV.

Christine Baranski is a renowned Emmy winner, yet in the ongoing conflict between “The Crown” and “The Morning Show”, she seems to take a backseat. Elizabeth Debicki has won both Critics Choice and Golden Globe awards for her portrayal of Diana, while Lesley Manville began this year’s festival season with an intriguing role as a mysterious woman from the South American jungle in Luca Guadagnino’s “Queer”. It’s worth noting that Manville’s performance came after the Emmy voting period had ended; I simply wanted to highlight it. Both Debicki and Manville have strong cases for winning, especially since this could be a chance for voters to bid farewell to “The Crown” with a grand finale victory.

Regarding the four nominees from “The Morning Show”, there’s speculation about which one voters will choose to honor above the rest. Nicole Beharie and Holland Taylor were prominently involved in the show’s viral scene, where their characters engaged in a heated on-air debate about race and responsibility. In that clip, it’s Beharie who stands out as a potential star. This powerful performance could potentially sway voters towards her.

Without a doubt, Greta Lee delivers an outstanding performance in this series. Her character, Stella Bak, finds herself under scrutiny throughout the season as she moves closer to a top corporate position while her questionable past with a suspicious tech tycoon leaves her in a tangled web. Lee brings the character to life spectacularly, and her rising star status, demonstrated by her presence on the Oscars campaign trail for Past Lives last year, adds an element of anticipated stardom. This category is shaping up to be incredibly competitive, with the winner remaining uncertain until the final moment.

Will win: Elizabeth Debicki

Should win: Greta Lee

Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series

The Crown, Sub Nightfall’s Embrace, Director: Stephen Daldry

Following its impressive performance at the Creative Arts Emmys, outpacing most shows for the entire year, it’s hard to argue that Shōgun won’t take home the Directing award – the crown jewel of technical categories. Discussing any other possibility seems unnecessary, as I see no reason to prolong this conversation or waste our valuable time on a debate that appears settled.

Will win: Shōgun, “Crimson Sky”

Should win: Shōgun, “Crimson Sky”

Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series

Monarchy’s Majesty, Peter Morgan and Meriel Sheibani-Clare

Two nominations for Shogun suggest a potential split in votes, but what’s the purpose? Will Emmy voters award writing to Fallout? Is there enough excitement for Mr. & Mrs. Smith to win it high up on the list? Slow Horses could be a worthy winner, but I believe its best chances lie with Oldman. Yes, giving a farewell gift to Peter Morgan (and co-writer Meriel Sheibani-Clare) for the final season of the aging The Crown seems just like something the Emmys would do.

Stay in line, Shōgun voters. Stay in line.

Will win: Shōgun, “Crimson Sky”

Should win: Slow Horses, “Negotiating with Tigers”

Outstanding Comedy Series

Abbott Elementary (ABC)
The Bear (FX on Hulu)
Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
Hacks (Max)
Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Palm Royale (Apple TV+)
Reservation Dogs (FX on Hulu)
What We Do in the Shadows (FX)

We’ve been saying all year that The Bear is walking to an Emmy win in this category, and now that we’re on the eve of that happening, we have to ask ourselves if we were overconfident. Although the third season of The Bear dropped in full this summer, this award would go to the show’s second season. That’s a good thing, since season two did a much better job sustaining clock-ticking momentum en route to the restaurant’s opening while making time for grace notes like Marcus’s trip to Copenhagen and Richie staging for chef Olivia Colman.

Even though viewers of Emmy Awards who watched Season 3 of The Bear can’t pretend they didn’t see it, if they felt let down by the series’ pace, disagreed with its narrative shifts, or believed it wasn’t truly a comedy, they likely factored those opinions into their voting. However, the question remains: Has an agreement emerged for a worthy replacement of The Bear? When the nominations were announced, the cheer you heard was from TV critics everywhere, rejoicing over Reservation Dogs’ well-deserved Outstanding Comedy Series nod. Sadly, that may be as far as its success goes.

Among popular shows, Abbott Elementary and Hacks are widely appreciated, with Hacks being a comedy that sometimes borders on drama. Only Murders in the Building had an exceptional third season in my view, breaking free from some of the patterns established in its second season. Curb Your Enthusiasm is bidding farewell to nominations. However, I believe the votes were dispersed too widely, and if the recent wins for Jamie Lee Curtis and Jon Bernthal in Guest Acting category are any clue, The Bear is poised to secure another win as we anticipated.

Will win: The Bear

Should win: Reservation Dogs

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Jeremy Allen White – “The Bear

It would truly be heartwarming if Emmy voters chose to honor Larry David one final time, recognizing his deserving and long-overdue talent. If this were the Oscars, we’d have spent three months celebrating his career, highlighting that he has been nominated a remarkable 18 times for ‘Curb’, yet never won. With such a rich history of nominations, wouldn’t it cross some voters’ minds to consider awarding Larry David and ‘Curb’ instead of Jeremy Allen White, who is young, handsome, boasts an underwear campaign, and already holds an Emmy from last year? It seems only fair to give them a chance to express gratitude for his exceptional work.

It seems that Matt Berry, a first-time nominee who many find endearing but unlikely to win, or one of the stars from ‘Only Murders in the Building’, are the frontrunners. However, my indecision between these two means neither is likely to win. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai has received the only acting nomination for ‘Rez Dogs’, making him the underdog. He would need a significant backlash against ‘Bear’ (implying all other categories might be overlooked) to have a chance at winning.

Will win: Jeremy Allen White

Should win: Larry David

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Here are five popular actresses from current TV shows:

From the get-go, my pick for the most compelling and thrilling acting competition was clear, even before the nominees were unveiled. Of course, I must acknowledge last year’s victor Quinta Brunson, newcomer Selena Gomez, and veteran comedians Maya Rudolph and Kristen Wiig; however, this contest boils down to a tight race between Jean Smart and Ayo Edebiri.

Jean Smart’s portrayal of Debra Vance in the series is like a slot machine that consistently yields winnings, given its Vegas-themed backdrop. The third season allowed her to shine in both bold and brash scenes, as well as showcasing a vulnerable heart and wounded pride. At the onset of this Emmy season, I was anticipating a sweep for another show, but I believe Smart will secure her third Emmy for Hacks this time around.

Will win: Jean Smart

Should win: Ayo Edebiri

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Here’s a way to rephrase the given names and shows in a more conversational manner:

If Ebon Moss-Bachrach hadn’t delivered an outstanding performance in “The Bear” season two with his exceptional episode “Forks”, I would be less convinced that the category might see an upset. The performance of “Forks” alone is compelling enough to potentially win Moss-Bachrach multiple Emmys, even when compared to strong competition such as Paul Rudd who has boosted the star power of “Only Murders”. Tyler James Williams is maintaining the Gregory-Janine storyline in a way that avoids the pitfalls of the Jim-and-Pam narrative. Lionel Boyce receives a standalone episode in “The Bear” season two, though his performance may be overlooked by awards voters due to its lowkey nature. Bowen Yang’s contributions to queering up “SNL” will likely lead to an award at some point. Despite the strong performances of other contenders, I anticipate that Moss-Bachrach will receive recognition for his work in “The Bear”, similar to how one might get carried away singing along to Taylor Swift in a car.

Will win: Ebon Moss-Bachrach

Should win: Ebon Moss-Bachrach

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Carol Burnett: Known as “Palm Royale

frankly, I thought “The Bear” would have a more significant impact in this category; I’m wondering about Abby Elliott’s nomination for her standout season, though. However, the competition was tough with so many talented actresses and limited nomination slots. Liza Colón-Zayas delivered a performance worthy of an Emmy for her work on “The Bear” last season, but she truly excelled in an upcoming episode that I hope will be nominated next year.

Currently, Sheryl Lee Ralph and Janelle James continue to deliver exceptional performances on the series “Abbott,” yet there seems to be an unusual lack of Emmy chatter surrounding this show this season. Similarly, the drumroll for a late-career Emmy for Carol Burnett appears muted. Perhaps it’s challenging to justify a career-spanning victory for someone who has already garnered seven Emmys. Meryl Streep, too, has received Emmys in the past, but she is undeniably Meryl Streep, making her a strong contender for an award given her comic brilliance on “Only Murders” (a delightful demonstration that Streep remains a force to be reckoned with on television following her less-than-impressive stint on “Big Little Lies”).

However, the arrival of the latest season of Hacks brought an emphasis on Hannah Einbinder during its promotion. If she does win an award, it might be partly due to the effort she invested in the promotional efforts. Despite being billed as a supporting character, Ava is actually one of the co-leads in Hacks, which offers her a significant advantage. A main storyline always appears more substantial when compared to a multitude of secondary characters (one of whom spent half her season in a coma).

Will win: Hannah Einbinder

Should win: Meryl Streep

Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series

Abbott Elementary: “Party” directed by Randall Einhorn

Last year, Christopher Storer claimed victory for an exceptionally nerve-wracking “Review” episode of The Bear (the one featuring an endless barrage of Doordash orders), and he’s returned with yet another stress-inducing installment from The Bear’s second season – the traumatic holiday flashback titled “Fishes.” However, since Joeey Soloway’s triumph in 2016 as a comedy director for Transparent, there hasn’t been a repeat winner in this category. So, it’s interesting to explore the competition.

In the category where “The Gentlemen” and “The Ms. Pat Show” are contenders, the other notable nominees include “Abbott Elementary,” which earned its first Directing nomination in three seasons for the “Party” episode, and Lucia Aniello from “Hacks,” who previously won this award for the show’s pilot episode. However, it seems that Storer could face significant competition, as Ramy Youssef directed an exceptional episode titled “Honeydew” in his own series, a Copenhagen-set episode that offers a striking contrast to the Berzatto family chaos of “Fishes,” with Marcus learning a new discipline from Will Poulter’s formidable character.

Will win: “Fishes”

Should win: “Honeydew”

Outstanding Writing a Comedy Series

“Abbott Elementary” – Quinta Brunson’s episode titled, “Career Day

If “The Bear” seems highly likely to take home the Directing award, it might be worth focusing on another category for an alternative program nomination. In our current reality, shows like “Girls5Eva” or “The Other Two,” despite their brilliantly absurd portrayals of the entertainment industry’s flaws in episodes such as “Brooke Hosts a Night of Undeniable Good,” may not win a significant Emmy award.

For a show other than “Bear,” Hacks might seem like the logical pick due to its strong second-place standing this year and the intense buzz generated by the season-three finale’s latest twist in the Deborah-Ava partnership (a blend of friendship and mentorship, let’s make that term trend). However, What We Do in the Shadows has been nominated for writing six times in the last five years, making it the only time it hasn’t faced competition from itself. If votes are divided between The Bear and Hacks, there’s a possibility that Shadows could pull off an unexpected victory.

Will win: What We Do in the Shadows, “Pride Parade”

Should win: The Other Two, “Brooke Hosts a Night of Undeniable Good”

Outstanding Limited Series

Baby Reindeer (Netflix)
Fargo (FX)
Lessons in Chemistry (Apple TV+)
Ripley (Netflix)
True Detective: Night Country (HBO)

2022 wasn’t a standout year for Limited Series, especially after “Shōgun” decided to switch categories mid-stream to Drama following its announcement of a second season. Many of the nominees this year left me feeling underwhelmed. “True Detective: Night Country,” featuring Jodie Foster and the chilling allure of Arctic horror, had its moments, but ultimately left as many viewers bewildered as it impressed. “Lessons in Chemistry” was well-crafted but failed to ignite. “Ripley” was visually stunning, but its painstakingly slow pace may have been more frustrating than “Night Country.” “Fargo,” as always, delivered a solid performance, though it’s never a given. In the end, despite the controversies, “Baby Reindeer” felt like a hidden gem, and that sense of discovery is likely to earn it the win.

Will win: Baby Reindeer

Should win: Baby Reindeer

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Matt Bomer – “Companion on the Journey

In this category, it’s typically wise to bet on the main actor from the series expected to win the Outstanding Limited Series award. However, since Richard Gadd is also nominated as writer and producer of “Baby Reindeer“, voters might choose to acknowledge him in other areas. This could potentially create opportunities for other contenders. Apart from Jon Hamm’s character in Fargo, all the performances here are of LGBTQ+ characters. While not all of them are joyful, content, or non-violent, they are complex and captivating roles regardless.

As a movie enthusiast, I’d confidently place my wager on either Bryan Cranston (who’s been nominated for several shows this year following his Emmy win) or Andrew Scott (whose impressive work in “All of Us Strangers” has significantly boosted his profile). If Andrew Scott were to win and claim the award for “Ripley,” it would be a fitting recognition for his chilling portrayal as Tom Ripley. It would also be beneficial, considering that “Baby Reindeer” seems to have taken the spotlight from “Ripley” in Netflix’s limited-series lineup. However, I’m leaning towards Bryan Cranston, given his dual nominations for “Fargo” and “The Morning Show.” Among these two roles, I believe he stands a better chance, especially since he won’t be competing with co-stars and because, let’s face it, Cranston just fits the mold of a leading man perfectly.

Will win: Jon Hamm

Should win: Andrew Scott

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Jodie Foster stars in “True Detective: Night Country

To clarify, this statement is not intended as disregard for actresses such as Brie Larson (a respected Oscar winner), Naomi Watts (depicting dignity on screen), Juno Temple (experiencing career success following Ted Lasso), or Sofia Vergara (featured in Queenpins). However, when Jodie Foster steps down from her Hollywood pedestal to star in a TV series, portraying a complex character with intensity, empathy, and humor, it seems fitting that she should receive the Emmy. This isn’t rocket science or advanced mathematics.

Will win: Jodie Foster

Should win: Jodie Foster

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Here are the actors and their respective TV shows or films, rephrased for easier reading:

For quite some time, we’ve been emphasizing that Robert Downey Jr.’s success is unavoidable – until recently, when we came to understand that he isn’t an inevitability; instead, he embodies Iron Man, a character deeply rooted in his Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) history. This connection might not have been clear to awards voters prior to the recent happenings at San Diego Comic Con.

I’d still place RDJ as the favorite to win, but if the enthusiasm for The Sympathizer truly isn’t there (zero nominations outside of this one), who’s the beneficiary of this category? I’d say Treat Williams, but the Emmys rarely go for posthumous awards. I could see Tom Goodman-Hill getting carried to the podium in a Baby Reindeer sweep (Emmy voters love their sweeps). Or it could be that Jonathan Bailey’s “he’s so hot right now” career trajectory will get enough people to punch his ballot for what was quite an effective and emotionally intense portrayal of a gay man of faith.

Will win: Robert Downey Jr.

Should win: Jonathan Bailey

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Dakota Fanning – Ripley

In this scenario, several factors are at play that could influence the outcome of the awards season. While Andrew Scott and Greta Lee may have an advantage in their respective categories due to last year’s Oscar run, Lily Gladstone could potentially benefit even more from her near-win for Best Actress in “Killers of the Flower Moon.” It seems that Gladstone is long overdue for recognition with a trophy.

Will win: Jessica Gunning

Should win: Jessica Gunning

Outstanding Directing for a Limited Series, Anthology, or Movie

As a fan, I’d like to express my appreciation for the following series that have recently captivated me:

It might seem logical that well-known Hollywood directors would dominate in this category due to a “stargazing effect,” but surprisingly, that hasn’t been the trend lately. Directors like Barry Jenkins, Ben Stiller, Stephen Frears, Ava DuVernay, Barry Levinson, Ron Howard, and Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris are among those who have taken a step back during Emmy awards, suggesting that it might not be wise to bet on Gus Van Sant in this instance.

The Baby Reindeer series has a high chance of winning the Limited Series category, given its favorite status. Rarely does the Directing award go to a series that hasn’t won either Outstanding Limited Series or Outstanding TV Movie. In the last 13 years, only two exceptions were seen with ‘Watchmen’ and ‘The People vs. O.J. Simpson’, both of which had multiple nominated episodes, possibly dividing their votes. If there’s a contender to Baby Reindeer, it might be Ripley, a visually stunning black-and-white series, directed by Steve Zaillian, a highly esteemed screenwriter with an impressive career and an Oscar win for Schindler’s List.

Will win: Baby Reindeer

Should win: Ripley

Outstanding Writing for a Limited Series, Anthology, or Movie

Baby Reindeer, Richard Gadd
Black Mirror, “Joan Is Awful,” Charlie Brooker
Fargo, “The Tragedy of the Commons,” Noah Hawley
Fellow Travelers, “You’re Wonderful,” Ron Nyswaner
Ripley, Steven Zaillian
True Detective: Night Country, “Part 6”

Although it seems highly improbable for ‘Black Mirror’ to win an Emmy solely due to a scene where [“Joan”] pulls down her skirt, crouches, and proceeds to defecate profusely and dramatically on the stone floor, I choose not to harbor excessive optimism.

Again, I think this comes down to Baby Reindeer or Ripley, and even more so than in Directing, this one is all sewn up for Baby Reindeer. It’s a way to award Richard Gadd if you didn’t vote for him in Lead Actor, and the show’s personal nature makes it feel like a writer’s triumph more than a director’s one. Shows like Fellow Travelers and True Detective are weakest on a script level.

Will win: Baby Reindeer

Should win: Baby Reindeer

Outstanding Reality Competition Program

The Amazing Race
RuPaul’s Drag Race
Top Chef
The Traitors
The Voice

At the Creative Arts Emmys, Alan Cumming snatched the Outstanding Host award, ending RuPaul’s eight-year reign and stirring anticipation for a win in this category by ‘Traitors’. Mathematically, it seems plausible, but this particular category tends to favor consistent winners. The rise of ‘Traitors’ looks promising, making me anxious about wagering against ‘RuPaul’s Drag Race’, given its persistent dominance.

Will win: The Traitors 

Should win: The Traitors

Outstanding Talk Series

The Daily Show
Jimmy Kimmel Live! 
Late Night with Seth Meyers 
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert 

11 times between 2003 and 2015, The Daily Show claimed an award. Last year, after Last Week Tonight with John Oliver was moved to a different category, TDS snatched the prize again. Given that election seasons often stir up feelings of nostalgia for Jon Stewart’s dismantling of right-wing talking points and demagogues, I’d rather bet on them than any other contender this year. Despite the fact that Seth Meyers has been consistently funny and intelligent in his late-night talk show for quite some time now, he hasn’t yet captured this award.

Will win: The Daily Show 

Should win: Late Night with Seth Meyers 

Outstanding Scripted Variety Series

Last Week Tonight with John Oliver 
Saturday Night Live 

This “who will win” query seems rather amusing given the circumstances. John Oliver seldom loses Emmys, it’s just not what we expect from John Oliver. Instead, I find myself questioning if Saturday Night Live (SNL), despite its usual unevenness, deserves to win this year simply because I’m growing tired of Last Week Tonight consistently taking the top spot. I am, and SNL had some standout performances this year, like the Jumanji sketch and the one where they dressed Ryan Gosling as Beavis. But what truly caught my attention was a recent sketch featuring Nate Bargatze as George Washington discussing weights and measures – that’s impressive enough to warrant a “should win”.

Will win: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver 

Should win: Saturday Night Live

Outstanding Writing for a Variety Special

Alex Edelman: Performed Especially for Us, Alex Edelman

Alex Edelman’s one-man show receiving a (non-competitive) Tony Award is equivalent to winning the prestigious, industry-exclusive lottery – the Mega Millions. Compared to this achievement, Mike Birbiglia’s struggles, John Early’s performance in “After the Gold Rush,” and even Jimmy Kimmel’s jokes from Oppenheimer can’t hold a candle.

Will win: Alex Edelman: Just for Us

Should win: John Early: Now More Than Ever

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2024-09-14 01:56