ETH Plummets: On-Chain Data Signals More Pain Ahead After Iran Deal Collapse

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<a href="https://minority-mindset.com/eth-usd/">ETH</a> Slides After No Iran Deal: On-Chain <a href="https://cnyrub.com/data">Data</a> Says the Real Pressure Is Just Starting

Key Takeaways

  • ETH at $2,212, below the 50 SMA at $2,242.
  • RSI at 37.12, signal line at 45.44.
  • All major ETH holder cohorts at near-zero unrealized profit simultaneously.
  • Last time all cohorts were at breakeven simultaneously: 2022 bear market.
  • Key support: $2,175-$2,180.

What the Chart Shows

Ethereum‘s price fell from a high of $2,325 to a low of $2,212, with the largest sell-off volume since April 8th. This drop pushed the price below its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,242 – a level that had been supporting the price during its recent recovery. Now, that SMA is acting as a resistance point, about $30 above the current price.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 37.12, suggesting the asset may soon be oversold. The signal line, at 45.44, is much higher, indicating that downward momentum is accelerating faster than usual. Recent trading volume was 2.78K, showing a slight decrease in selling, but not enough buying interest to reverse the trend.

The $2,175-$2,180 price level is key to predicting future movement. It successfully acted as support twice after the recent pullback on April 9th and 10th, and hasn’t been challenged yet today. However, given how the market is currently behaving, we expect it to be tested before the end of the trading session.

What the Holder Data Shows

CryptoQuant’s analysis of unrealized profits and losses reveals a noteworthy trend beyond just price movements. As of April 10th, major Ethereum holders – those with 100,000 or more ETH, 10,000-100,000 ETH, and 1,000-10,000 ETH – are all experiencing almost no profit or loss. The data shows these groups are essentially at the break-even point simultaneously.

The group of addresses holding between 10,000 and 100,000 units is particularly noteworthy. These holders are currently experiencing small losses on their investments. This is important because people who are losing money tend to sell quickly to avoid bigger losses, rather than holding on hoping for a rebound. In contrast, the largest holders – those with 100,000+ units – are still slightly profitable. This difference in financial status between these two groups is likely where most of the immediate selling pressure will come from.

We’ve only seen this pattern happen twice before. The first time was during the 2022 bear market, when all investment groups quickly went from breaking even to experiencing significant losses as the price of ETH dropped from $3,000 to $900. The second time was briefly in mid-2021, before a strong market rally brought those groups back to profitability. These two instances led to very different results.

What Both Datasets Say Together

The recent drop below the 50-day Simple Moving Average and the fact that most holders are currently seeing little to no profit aren’t isolated events – they both point to the same underlying issue. The price charts indicate a weakening technical pattern following the removal of recent positive economic news. Looking at on-chain data, we see the financial health of holders, which will be key in determining if the price can bounce back or if it will continue to fall.

If investors are breaking even and the price chart falls below a key support level, it’s likely to continue dropping to the next lower level before attempting to recover. When the 50-day simple moving average is broken, it increases selling as those using it as a stop-loss point are forced to sell. Additionally, larger investors already experiencing losses will also contribute to selling to minimize further damage. This selling pressure won’t ease until the price either finds support at $2,175 and bounces back, establishing a new support level, or falls below it, in which case past performance from 2022 will likely dictate future price movement.

The $2,175-$2,180 price point isn’t simply a level of technical support; it represents a critical threshold. Currently, on-chain data suggests two equally likely future scenarios, and this price level is what divides them.

This article is for informational purposes only and shouldn’t be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com doesn’t support or suggest any particular investment or cryptocurrency. Always do your own research and talk to a qualified financial advisor before investing.

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2026-04-12 14:44