We’ve Never Seen an Oscar Race Like This Before

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As a film buff, I’ve noticed a pattern in the Best Picture race – usually, the final two contenders are really different from each other. Think about it: Moonlight and La La Land were worlds apart, and Parasite versus 1917 felt like a battle between innovation and tradition. But this year with One Battle After Another and Sinners, it’s unusual. They actually have a lot in common, and it’s tough to even say which one is the bigger, more mainstream film – they’re both coming from the same studio, which makes it even more interesting!

Since its release in September, One Battle has consistently been a frontrunner for Best Picture, earning major awards from the Golden Globes, Directors Guild of America, BAFTA, and Producers Guild of America. However, Sinners recently gained momentum, breaking the record for most Oscar nominations with 16 and winning the Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by a Cast. The competition is now incredibly close as we approach the Oscars, and the race for Best Picture is expected to be a tight one.

Honestly, it’s not just the big showdown between these two films – they’re competing in ten other categories too! And the acting races? Totally unpredictable this year. Add to that the fact that 2025 was a strong year for movies overall – so many great performances and films are in the running – and it all makes these Oscars the most wide-open I can remember. But, as your resident film buff, I’m here to try and make sense of it all. So, here are my predictions for all 24 categories.

Best Picture

Here’s a list of book titles: Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, and Train Dreams.

Warner Bros. is facing a series of conflicts. It’s a struggle for Zaslav, reminiscent of tense negotiations, as their project, One Battle After Another, clashes with Sinners.

These two films have something in common: they took big chances. Both studios gave talented directors a lot of money and let them create whatever they wanted, and it mostly paid off. The films offer unusual perspectives on American life, twisting familiar stories to reveal hidden meanings – think quirky Christmas adventures and vampire dance movies. They’re not always polished; they jump between genres and moods, and sometimes feel a bit rough around the edges. But surprisingly, that’s exactly what audiences are looking for right now. More traditional, carefully crafted films, like Hamnet, aren’t resonating at the moment. Sadly, the success of these films feels a little sad because Warner Bros. is facing financial difficulties and might soon be owned by Paramount, potentially marking the end of an era for the studio’s bold, original filmmaking.

While One Battle received immediate praise from critics and was quickly labeled a top film, Sinners achieved greatness differently. One Battle‘s success was driven by endorsements from those at the top, while Sinners gained popularity from regular moviegoers. Released without much initial hype, Sinners unexpectedly entered the Oscar conversation thanks to audience support. This kind of grassroots success is especially valuable now, as many people worry that film is becoming an art form enjoyed by only a select few.

I’m hesitant to fully support Sinners for a few reasons. While Sinners won against OBAA once at SAG, OBAA has consistently beaten Sinners, most recently at the ASC Awards last weekend. One Battle isn’t like 1917, where flaws were highlighted by strong competition – it’s just as enjoyable as Sinners. Nor is it similar to La La Land, which was overshadowed by real-world events. In fact, One Battle has become increasingly relevant as the season progressed, with current events unfortunately making its depiction of a government waging war on its citizens based on the desires of powerful figures feel all too accurate.

Everyone agrees audiences are captivated by Sinners. You can tell by how people discuss it and the enthusiastic reactions it gets. Similarly, there’s plenty of proof that voters also really like One Battle. However, I haven’t seen convincing evidence that people prefer Ryan Coogler’s film more than Paul Thomas Anderson’s, so I’m still predicting a win for One Battle After Another.

Best Director

Here’s a look at some upcoming projects from notable directors: Paul Thomas Anderson is working on One Battle After Another, Ryan Coogler on Sinners, Josh Safdie on Marty Supreme, Joachim Trier on Sentimental Value, and Chloé Zhao on Hamnet.

Even if Sinners wins Best Picture, most people in the industry seem to believe Paul Thomas Anderson will ultimately take home the award. After making ten films and receiving twelve Oscar nominations, many feel it’s finally his turn to win.

Best Actor

Here’s a list of actors and their respective film titles: Timothée Chalamet in Marty Supreme, Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another, Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon, Michael B. Jordan in Sinners, and Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent.

The race for Best Actor is incredibly close! Timothée Chalamet has seen a rollercoaster of predictions recently, going from the clear favorite to facing backlash. Michael B. Jordan is hoping his recent Screen Actors Guild win will propel him to an Oscar, and Wagner Moura is a strong contender after winning a Golden Globe. However, I’m predicting a win for Michael B. Jordan. His acceptance speech was heartfelt and genuine, acknowledging both his gratitude and his long career. Plus, voting for Jordan allows voters to reward the film Sinners with another major award, ensuring it’s recognized even if it doesn’t win Best Picture. This would be a strategic choice for voters considering both OBAA and Sinners.

Best Actress

Here’s a list of actors and their recent film roles: Jessie Buckley in Hamnet, Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue, Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Value, and Emma Stone in Bugonia.

Rose Byrne gave a great performance and finished second, but Jessie Buckley was the clear favorite and has essentially already won this award.

Best Supporting Actor

Here’s a look at some upcoming projects and the actors involved: Benicio del Toro will star in One Battle After Another, Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein, Delroy Lindo in Sinners, Sean Penn also in One Battle After Another, and Stellan Skarsgård in Sentimental Value.

This awards race has been unpredictable. Sean Penn initially seemed like the clear frontrunner thanks to a powerful performance, but Benicio Del Toro gained momentum with critics. Then Jacob Elordi and Stellan Skarsgård both won major awards, seemingly dividing the vote. Despite Penn winning BAFTA and SAG awards with minimal campaigning, and competition from Del Toro, the race remains surprisingly open. Honestly, anyone could win except Elordi – Del Toro is strong, Lindo could receive a lifetime achievement award for his work, and Skarsgård might benefit from strategic category placement. However, I’m still predicting a win for Sean Penn based on his industry wins, though I’m not very confident in the prediction.

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning stars in Sentimental Value, as does Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas. Amy Madigan appears in Weapons, Wunmi Mosaku in Sinners, and Teyana Taylor in One Battle After Another.

Okay, this Best Actress race is a real head-scratcher, just as unpredictable as Best Actor! For a moment, it looked like Teyana Taylor had it locked down after her Golden Globe win, but she didn’t carry that momentum through the industry awards. Then Wunmi Mosaku snagged the BAFTA, but even with a strong showing for Sinners at the SAG Awards, she couldn’t quite pull off the win. Surprisingly, Amy Madigan took the Actor award – a lone nominee from a horror film, and definitely an underdog considering the buzz around the Best Picture contenders. Usually, Oscar logic says go with the actor from the film with the most overall momentum, but I’m going to zig where everyone else zags and predict Teyana Taylor. Her performance is just electric and really defines the feel of OBAA. If you want to play it safe though, Madigan is a solid bet.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Train Dreams

Winning Best Director or Best Adapted Screenplay is usually key to winning Best Picture. So, even if Paul Thomas Anderson wins Best Director, he doesn’t need to also win Best Adapted Screenplay to remain the frontrunner for Best Picture. While some predicted Hamnet might win Adapted Screenplay as a consolation prize, One Battle After Another has been incredibly strong. It’s a remarkable adaptation of Thomas Pynchon’s Vineland, successfully capturing the author’s original spirit, and I now believe PTA will win this category as well.

Best Original Screenplay

Blue Moon
It Was Just an Accident
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Sinners

It’s a bit troubling that the screenplay awards seem to be where Black and female filmmakers are now consistently recognized with Oscars, especially when they often miss out on the Best Picture and Best Director awards. However, “Sinners” is truly original – a thrilling action-horror film that cleverly uses vampire mythology to explore the exploitation of Black culture. And I’m definitely happy to see Ryan Coogler win an Oscar before the age of 40.

Best International Feature

Here’s a list of films and their countries of origin: It Was Just an Accident (France), The Secret Agent (Brazil), Sentimental Value (Norway), Sirāt (Spain), and The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia).

Predicting the winner of this award is usually straightforward: the film also nominated for Best Picture often wins. However, like last year, we have two contenders – Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent – that are also up for Best Picture. Unlike last year, neither of these films has faced controversy due to cast members’ past problematic behavior, making the race more competitive. I’ve been debating which film is stronger. Sentimental Value has received more acting nominations and its director was also nominated, while The Secret Agent has a casting nomination, feels more politically relevant, and initially seemed to have more buzz. But recently, the industry seems to be leaning towards Sentimental Value, suggesting voters are likely to recognize its overall quality and not get distracted by other factors.

Best Documentary Feature

Here are the titles of several works: The Alabama Solution, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cutting Through Rocks, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, and The Perfect Neighbor.

At last year’s Oscars, someone pointed out that the documentary branch voters tend to choose films they personally enjoy, effectively controlling which documentaries get nominated. This means popular, celebrity-focused documentaries and feel-good animal stories – like Octopus Teacher – are often left out, making the Best Documentary category notoriously difficult to predict. This year is proving to be no different, as the winners of other major awards, My Mom Jayne and 2000 Meters to Andriivka, weren’t even nominated. While several films have picked up wins – Come See Me in the Good Light at the Cinema Eye Honors and Mr. Nobody Against Putin at the BAFTAs – one documentary is standing out from the rest: The Perfect Neighbor. This film uses police body-cam footage to tell a local tragedy and, despite not winning any major industry awards yet, it has gained momentum with critics, winning at both the Critics Choice and Indie Spirits awards. I believe this wider recognition will give it an edge with the broader Oscar voting body and lead to a win.

Geeta Gandbhir, the director of Perfect Neighbor, is also up for an Oscar in the Documentary Short category. If she wins both awards, she’ll be part of a very exclusive group – joining legends like Walt Disney and Edith Head as one of the few people to win Oscars for multiple films on the same night.

Best Animated Feature

Arco
Elio
Kpop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2

The creators of the Kpop Demon Hunters soundtrack seemed to be playfully predicting an Oscar win with their song titles. Were they jokingly suggesting the film’s success to critics? After successfully showcasing their animation skills – turning the fictional group Huntr/x into the hit song “Your Idol” – the film didn’t need a complicated plan to beat out competitors like Zootopia 2. It’s poised to win the “Golden” trophy and rise to the top.

Best Casting

Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sinners

Honestly, predicting the first-ever Casting Oscar is tough! The BAFTAs honored a British film most Americans haven’t even seen yet. The Artios Awards are the only other guide, but a couple of the nominees weren’t eligible because their casting directors aren’t part of the Casting Society. Sinners won that award, and I really think it’s going to win at the Oscars too. The casting was incredibly challenging – finding actors who could also sing and dance is no easy feat, and they discovered someone amazing in Miles Caton. But it’s also about recognizing Francine Maisler, the casting director. She’s a legend! She’s cast over a dozen Best Picture nominees and shows like Succession, so giving her this first Oscar would be a huge, well-deserved moment for someone who’s truly shaped the industry.

Best Film Editing

F1
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners

This award often hints at which film might be a strong contender for Best Picture. It’ll be a good early sign of whether Sinners or One Battle After Another is currently favored to win. (Both films recently won awards at the ACE Eddie Awards.) I’m leaning towards One Battle After Another because editor Andy Jurgensen skillfully keeps the nearly three-hour movie moving at a good pace.

Best Original Song

Okay, so I’ve been on a bit of a movie music journey lately! I checked out the songs from ‘Diana Warren: Relentless,’ and ‘Golden’ from ‘Kpop Demon Hunters’ was a real standout. Then I stumbled upon ‘I Lied to You’ from ‘Sinners,’ which was surprisingly emotional. After that, ‘Sweet Dreams of Joy’ from ‘Viva Verdi!’ just lifted my spirits. And finally, I revisited the hauntingly beautiful score from ‘Train Dreams,’ which is always a good listen.

This year, the Oscars are listing the names of individual artists nominated for each craft award, instead of just the movie title. Many believed this practice contributed to Diane Warren’s decades of being nominated without winning, and while she’s up for the award again this year (with her name clearly listed!), it seems likely she’ll have to wait another year. The song “I Lied to You,” from the film Sinners, initially seemed like a strong contender, but the growing popularity of “Huntr/x” from Kpop Demon Hunters has changed things. While popular songs don’t always win this award, the track “Golden” feels like a clear frontrunner.

Best Original Score

Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Sinners

Despite not winning everything, the film Sinners is still expected to win at least one award tonight. Most experts agree that Ludwig Göransson, a two-time Oscar winner, will win his third for the film’s score, which blends blues and lively, upbeat music.

Best Cinematography

Frankenstein
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Train Dreams

The Best Cinematography race is heating up, with a recent change in who’s favored to win. Autumn Durald Arkapaw, who worked on Sinners, was a strong contender – and would be the first woman of color to win in this category, and the first woman overall. However, Michael Bauman, from One Battle After Another, has gained momentum, winning both the BAFTA and ASC Awards. Bauman’s work on the film’s impressive car chase could be enough to secure the win, but Arkapaw still has a chance to make history.

Best Costume Design

Avatar: Fire and Ash
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sinners

We’re likely to see Frankenstein pick up some awards during the ceremony, especially in the technical categories that favor visually impressive historical films. It’s expected to do well in Costume Design, where Kate Hawley’s elaborate Gothic dresses are the frontrunner, having already won a similar award from the Costume Designers Guild over the costumes from Sinners, which were inspired by 1930s fashion.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Frankenstein
Kokuho
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
The Ugly Stepsister

Frankenstein’s latest achievement is being recognized with a playful ‘Suicide Squad Memorial Oscar’ for successfully transforming Jacob Elordi into the most attractive collection of ‘monster parts’ seen on screen since Oliver Reed’s performance.

Best Production Design

Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners

As a film buff, I was really impressed by A24’s all-out effort to get Jack Fisk, the production designer for Marty Supreme (and dad to Schuyler Fisk!), some Oscar recognition. They really went the extra mile – a full media tour, a career tribute at the American Cinematheque… honestly, it was a campaign usually reserved for directors, composers, or cinematographers! While Jack’s work was, as always, fantastic – he perfectly recreated the Lower East Side of the early 1950s – I fear he’ll be overshadowed by the buzz around Guillermo del Toro’s Poor Things. It seems Tamara Deverell, the production designer on that film, is making it three Oscar wins in a row for GDT – a truly remarkable streak, but a tough break for someone as deserving as Jack Fisk.

Best Sound

F1
Frankenstein
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Sirāt 

As a total cinema fan, I’m really intrigued by the sound work on Sinners – it’s already picked up a couple of awards! Sirāt’s pulsing electronic music could make it a bit of a dark horse contender, maybe like the surprisingly impactful Zone of Interest. However, everyone seems to be buzzing about F1 – it’s a high-octane, speed-focused film, very much in the vein of crowd-pleasers like Ford v. Ferrari and Top Gun: Maverick. Honestly, just thinking about it makes me want to hear those engines roar – vroom vroom!

Best Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Jurassic World Rebirth
The Lost Bus
Sinners

While Avatar: Fire and Ash didn’t reach the $2 billion mark like previous Avatar films, and wasn’t nominated for Best Picture, it’s almost certain to win this award. It would be as surprising as Ella McKay losing the award for Best State the Title Character Was Born And Raised In.

Best Live-Action Short

Here are some evocative titles: Butcher’s Stain, A Friend of Dorothy, Jane Austen’s Period Drama, The Singers, and Two People Exchanging Saliva.

When it comes to the Live-Action Short category, choosing a film with well-known actors is often a safe strategy. This year, that would be A Friend of Dorothy, a charming British film starring Miriam Margolyes and Stephen Fry. However, Two People Exchanging Saliva, a unique French short, is gaining more attention. It’s been described as similar to the film Carol, but set in a world where kissing is banned and people use slaps instead of money. The film also boasts a recognizable star, Zar Amir Ebrahimi, who previously won Best Actress at Cannes. And a special mention goes to Jane Austen’s Period Drama for its playfully nostalgic vibe reminiscent of early 2010s internet culture.

Best Animated Short

Butterfly
Forever Green
The Girl Who Cried Pearls
Retirement Plan
The Three Sisters

I was familiar with New Yorker cartoons, but this is something else! The magazine’s Retirement Plan isn’t flashy with animation, but it feels like a collection of their best work brought to life. It’s a charming, short piece that’s reminiscent of a poem, a short story, or one of their “Shouts & Murmurs” features, and Domhnall Gleeson’s narration is a lovely addition.

Best Documentary Short

The Oscar category for Best Documentary Short is consistently the most heartbreaking, and this year is no different. The nominees all deal with incredibly difficult subjects, focusing on loss and tragedy – specifically, the deaths of children. This year’s films include those about school shootings and the conflict in Gaza, as well as a documentary about a war photographer who died on the job. While The Devil Is Busy tackles a serious topic – protests at abortion clinics – it might resonate more with audiences because it features a strong, positive female character, a security guard who is a hero. Plus, the film is co-directed by Geeta Gandbhir, who also directed The Perfect Neighbor, giving her the chance to win two Oscars in one year.

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2026-03-12 22:02