- Success and “decline” of Manor Lords
- CCU isn’t everything
- Recipients, not statistics
- Success of Manor Lords despite CCU declines
- CCU Traps
As someone who has been following the gaming industry for years and has played numerous titles, both indie and AAA, I can’t help but be intrigued by the case of Manor Lords and the ongoing debate around measuring game success solely based on CCU (concurrent users).
As a long-time gaming enthusiast and industry observer, I’ve noticed that publicly available statistics on the number of players can indeed offer valuable insights into the success of games. However, I also understand the criticisms raised by some in the community regarding the evaluation of game success based solely on “peaks” on platforms like Steam.
Success and “decline” of Manor Lords
At the close of April, Manor Lords, a game developed mostly by one person, made a grand entrance as one of the standout titles of 2024. Such an accomplishment is impressive for any game, let alone one created by a solo developer. Yet, three months following its extraordinary launch, which saw the addition of the game to over 3 million Steam wish lists, the number of concurrent players has significantly dropped.
Currently, Manor Lords boasts a daily maximum of approximately 5-7 thousand players. This is still a sizeable figure for an early access game, but it’s a noticeable drop from the over 173,000 who played on its release day. As a result, for example, The Long Dark’s developer voiced criticism towards Manor Lords (which was later retracted).
CCU isn’t everything
Tim Bender, the head of Hooded Horse, the gaming company, has made it clear before that focusing solely on player numbers to measure success is a misstep. This is particularly relevant for games that aren’t continuously updated multiplayer services, where success can hinge on sustaining growth. Bender expressed his contentment with the performance of “Manor Lords.”
The publisher is undoubtedly content with the situation. Bender was included in conversations with a16z games for an article they were writing on the drawbacks of using “concurrent users” (CCU) as a metric for game success. This initiative came up due to industry debates and feedback from developers about this topic.
As a long-time gamer with a deep appreciation for the hunting genre, I’ve had the chance to try out my fair share of games over the years. The Hunter: Call of the Wild, released in 2017, is one that hasn’t exactly set the world on fire in terms of concurrent users or daily peaks. According to SteamDB, its highest number of simultaneous players reached just 24,000, which, while not insignificant, pales in comparison to other popular games in the market. And sadly, the daily peak often fails to surpass the 7,000 or even 5,000 mark.
A51z games notes that CCU (Concurrent Users) can be less dependable for premium games, meaning those that need to be bought rather than relying on microtransactions. To clarify, the decrease in Baldur’s Gate 3’s peak daily players should not be taken as an indication that Larian Studios has lost supporters. Similarly, it is irrelevant to bring up how viewership drops for a film like “Oppenheimer” as it releases more time from its premiere. Both instances represent significant accomplishments by their creators.
Recipients, not statistics
When it comes to games-as-a-service, Areeb Pirani, a former brand strategy director for League of Legends, argues against placing too much significance on the decrease in daily active users (CCU) after peak numbers. This focus is frequently used by some to claim that a particular game is “dying.”
As a seasoned gamer, I’ve come to realize that focusing too much on raw player counts, particularly lifetime installs and peak concurrent users (CCU) at launch, can be misleading. Sometimes these numbers are inflated or intentionally exaggerated for various reasons. And let me tell you, decay from peak is often overhyped, especially when players want to make a case that the game is on its last legs.
Instead of expanding the player count, developers like Pirani and Kristoffer Touberg (Avalanche Studios Group’s VP of Product) recommend targeting the game specifically to its intended audience.
Success of Manor Lords despite CCU declines
In the context of Bender’s games, including “Manor Lords,” he expressed this perspective. The head of Hooded Horse shared his hesitance about going public since it would necessitate catering to investors with an insatiable desire for profits and perpetual expansion.
The American confirmed that the company is extremely pleased with Manor Lords’ outcome. This is no surprise, as he disclosed in an a16z games statement that the Polish strategy generated more than $60 million in revenue and over 250,000 copies of the game were sold by the end of June.
Bender pointed out that CCU (Concurrent Users) can be quite vague since it depends on various influences. This includes experienced gamers logging in repeatedly for extended periods, as well as newcomers who spend less time in the game. In the scenario of premium games, having a large number of new players entering the platform is actually more profitable for developers.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=-52476
CCU Traps
The leader of Hooded Horse prioritizes other data over his own, with the median playtime being particularly important to him (as he stated in response to feedback from Raphael van Lierop). He also considers player reviews as valuable indicators. These metrics help him assess if the developers are performing effectively and meeting the needs of players.
According to him, small teams may adopt a casual attitude towards CCU (Continuous Content Updates), resulting in them prioritizing post-launch content preparation for games on Steam Early Access over optimizing their initial impression or balancing the game. This perspective was also suggested by the publisher of Caves of Qud.
From my perspective as a fan, if you’re leading a smaller team working on Early Access using a live service model, I’d caution against the advice to hold back content for post-release updates. This advice could steer you wrong in several ways. With a premium game, the focus is not primarily on saving content for after launch. Instead, delivering as much value as possible upfront is crucial to keep players engaged and satisfied.
Perhaps you require around 2-3 months for fine-tuning and fixing issues. It isn’t solely about adding more elements to the game; additional content doesn’t automatically lead to a superior end product. Instead, it’s essential to consider what can be eliminated, adjusted, and refined to create a better overall experience.
As someone who has been following the gaming community for years and frequently checks Steam for new releases or sales, I can confidently say that Manor Lords is currently one of the most popular games on the platform. I’ve noticed a significant number of gamers adding it to their carts during my recent browsing sessions.
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2024-07-29 16:02