Which 2026 Awards Contender Will Be This Year’s Oscar Villain?

Oscar season isn’t just about supporting the films you love—sometimes it’s just as fun to pick one to dislike. When a lot of people online all agree on a movie to criticize, it earns a nickname: it becomes the “Oscar villain.”

The Oscars have always had their share of controversial winners. Back in 1970, many viewers protested when John Wayne, known for his racist views, won Best Actor for True Grit. Later, fans of director Martin Scorsese felt unfairly treated when films like Ordinary People and Dances With Wolves won over his acclaimed movies, Raging Bull and GoodFellas. However, the idea of a clear “Oscar villain” really took hold in the late 2010s, fueled by the anxieties of the Trump era. Each year, one nominated film became a symbolic stand-in for the president, allowing online movie fans to express their frustrations. Films like La La Land, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Green Book, and Joker all faced this kind of backlash. It was a tense time, and it felt strangely comforting to see these symbolic “villains” defeated – as if it meant there was hope for overcoming the challenges of the era.

This trend stemmed from the way Twitter dominated online discussions within progressive circles. However, things have changed significantly in the last decade. The online conversation is now spread across more private platforms like Substack, Letterboxd, and TikTok. Twitter, now known as X, isn’t the influential force it once was, and while Bluesky feels like a gathering place for those hoping for a shift in power, it’s not where people discuss the Oscars. Furthermore, the focus of online debate has changed during the second Trump term. With openly extremist behavior being so prominent, simply labeling an Oscar nominee as “implicitly fascist” doesn’t have the same impact. That kind of commentary feels more suited to advertising now.

The debate over which movie deserves to be considered the “villain” at this year’s Oscars is unusually widespread. It seems like over half of the films nominated for Best Picture could easily be seen as the bad guy, depending on who you ask. Here’s our yearly list ranking those contenders, based on how much negativity they’re receiving online.

Oscar Heroes

No one’s going to get annoying in your mentions for praising these ones.

The Secret Agent

Let’s be honest, with everything going on domestically, it’s usually tough for a foreign film to become the ‘bad guy’ at the Oscars. That’s what makes Emilia Pérez‘s success last year so surprising. This year, though, The Secret Agent doesn’t have that hurdle. It’s a solid Brazilian film with a clear anti-fascist message. I’d describe it as a South American companion piece to One Battle After Another – it’s a thriller with a satirical edge, exploring the craziness of authoritarian regimes and how communities can come together to fight back. And honestly? It’s one of the least-seen nominees, so championing it feels a little more… sophisticated, a bit more ‘insider’ than backing some of the bigger titles.

Sinners

Since Ryan Coogler’s film became a huge success, I’ve often heard people claim Hollywood was reluctant to make it. But the truth is, studios desperately wanted it – so much so that Warner Bros. won a fierce competition to produce it by offering Coogler an incredibly generous deal: complete creative control, a share of profits from the very beginning, and full ownership after 25 years. It’s ironic – we should all wish Hollywood disliked our projects this much! After the film’s release, industry publications did seem to downplay its success in a way that felt racially biased. While I don’t have any inside knowledge, it’s possible this negativity came from competing studios who regretted not buying the rights, or even from within Warner Bros. itself, with some hoping to get rid of the people who did approve the project. It’s remarkable how easily a few anonymous quotes can shape a narrative that feels more real than what actually happened. It also highlights how social media rewards people for claiming unique insight – like being the only one who predicted the film would be a hit.

Ironically, Sinners receiving the most nominations ever actually works against it in terms of seeming like an underdog, especially compared to Titanic. However, facing off against One Battle After Another for Best Picture helps Sinners keep its appeal with general audiences. If Paul Thomas Anderson’s film is seen as the intellectual choice, then Coogler’s film can position itself as the crowd favorite.

The Neutral Zone

No one’s saying much about this one, good or bad.

Train Dreams

My parents recently watched Train Dreams on Netflix and loved it, believing almost everyone would. While some people initially debated whether the film softened the story by portraying its main character as less racist and less involved in the mistreatment of a Chinese worker, others, like my colleague Roxana Hadadi, praised the change in tone, describing it as a shift from bitterness to sadness and regret. I think my parents are right, though. Train Dreams is so gentle and delicate that it’s hard to find much fault with it. The biggest criticism you could level at it is that it looks a bit like a commercial from the early 2010s.

Honorable Mentions

While these movies were mostly well-received, they also have a surprisingly vocal group of critics. Be careful bringing them up in conversations with people you don’t know well.

One Battle After Another

The film currently favored to win Best Picture is also the most politically charged of the major contenders, making it the dominant topic of conversation this awards season. What’s striking about the criticism isn’t how much there is – it comes from a relatively small but passionate group – but who is criticizing it. People on the left argue the film undermines Black activism, while those in the center feel it excuses criminal behavior. On the right, some object to the film’s suggestion that government actions against immigrants are reminiscent of fascism. Beyond these criticisms, there’s a legitimate discussion about whether the film’s quirky and complex style is appropriate for such a sensitive subject. Ultimately, many believe the film’s thought-provoking nature is its greatest strength—and as real-world events increasingly mirror scenes from the movie, its claim as the year’s most important film only grows stronger.

Bugonia

Given that Bugonia presents a clash between two very current figures – the ruthless businesswoman and the eccentric conspiracy theorist (who, surprisingly, is quite likable) – you’d expect it to have sparked more discussion. However, as the fourth film pairing of Emma Stone and Yorgos Lanthimos, it’s been seen as somewhat familiar this awards season. Despite receiving several important nominations, it’s still feeling like a temporary entry as the competition moves forward. While many viewers strongly disliked the ending, the overall reaction seems to be more of a mild disappointment than genuine anger.

Sentimental Value

This year’s most talked-about ‘bad dad’ movie has surprisingly stuck around, even after films like Jay Kelly and Ella McKay faded from view. I found myself enjoying it as much as the Academy Awards voters did, but like many of Joachim Trier’s films, I questioned whether my enjoyment was genuine or simply an appreciation for the film’s depiction of a certain sophisticated European lifestyle. Online, you’ll find strong opinions on both sides. Critics who dislike it often compare it to a stylish but ultimately boring Ikea couch – beautifully designed, but likely to lull you to sleep. This comparison doesn’t help its chances against the more energetic Secret Agent, which it’s competing with for the International Film award. One friend pointed out its appeal to divorced fathers in the industry, joking that it feels like a script written specifically to get a daughter to reconnect with her dad.

Frankenstein

Netflix’s biggest film this year feels strange to me – I only know one person who actually liked it. I’m surprised it received nine Oscar nominations, more than critically acclaimed films like No Country for Old Men or There Will Be Blood. This has led some to call it a product of what’s been dubbed the “Oscar chum era,” where movies with big promotional budgets seem to automatically get nominated, overshadowing potentially better films. Despite Guillermo del Toro being a popular director, he surprisingly wasn’t nominated for Best Director, a result many feared. Without that nomination, the film’s chances of winning felt weaker. On a brighter note, it’s great to see Jacob Elordi recognized with a Supporting Actor nomination.

The Medal Places

Now we’re talking Oscar villains.

F1

Immediately after the Oscar nominations were revealed, the movie F1 seemed poised to become the target of criticism. Many questioned how it earned a Best Picture nomination, feeling it didn’t measure up artistically to the other nominees. One writer joked it was essentially a film about tires. However, supporters quickly defended it, pointing out that F1 didn’t eliminate critically acclaimed independent films; it simply outperformed other big-budget blockbusters like Avatar: Fire and Ash and Wicked: For Good. They argued that traditional Academy voters are perfectly capable of enjoying a classic, crowd-pleasing movie. While it’s easy to poke fun at F1 as a nostalgic film appealing to older audiences – where young characters try to teach a lesson, only to find they’re the ones learning – its lack of pretension prevents it from becoming a truly hated film. Ultimately, F1 isn’t the villain of the Oscars; it’s the joke, and that’s something different.

Hamnet

Several months ago, my colleague predicted that Hamnet would be a strong contender for an Oscar. The film seemed poised to challenge Sinners and OBAA – it had the classic feel of a beautifully made historical drama. Some saw parallels to Shakespeare in Love unexpectedly winning over Saving Private Ryan, a result few were anticipating. However, after its release, Hamnet sharply divided audiences. Was it a truly moving depiction of grief, or overly sentimental? It quickly became apparent that Chloé Zhao’s film wouldn’t be a major obstacle for either OBAA or Sinners. With Paul Mescal missing out on a Supporting Actor nomination, Hamnet now seems unlikely to win any major awards. It’s probable that it will only win Best Actress, and honestly, if The Eyes of Tammy Faye could win, most people wouldn’t object to Hamnet taking the prize.

Marty Supreme

It’s a sign awards season is really starting when negative stories about nominees begin to surface. Shortly after Josh Safdie, director of Marty Supreme, received the most Oscar nominations this year, Page Six published an article detailing a 2017 incident on the set of his film Good Time. The article reported that actor Buddy Duress exposed himself and sexually harassed a 17-year-old actress during filming of a sex scene. (Duress was allegedly under the influence of drugs, and the scene didn’t make the final cut.) The Safdie brothers reportedly witnessed the harassment but didn’t stop it. While this incident was reported a few years ago, the new Page Six article focuses blame on Josh Safdie, seemingly protecting his brother Benny, who directed the less popular The Smashing Machine. Adding to the complexity, several journalists received an email highlighting a negative Daily Mail article about Marty Supreme earlier in the season, leading some to believe someone is deliberately trying to damage the film’s reputation, similar to tactics used by Harvey Weinstein.

Look, the stuff about bad behavior on set? That always needs to be discussed, awards season or not. But let’s be real, the timing of that “Page Six” article is a big reason this is blowing up now. It’s kinda like what happened with The Brutalist and the AI stuff last year – it’s hitting Marty Supreme right when everyone’s focused on it. And it’s a weird twist because, as a fan, I love the Safdie brothers’ style. Their movies feel raw and real, like they’ve captured the energy of New York City, flaws and all. But this story… it shows the darker side of that magic. What felt like creative freedom now feels like a lack of boundaries, and honestly, it’s making me rethink some of the things I loved about Marty Supreme. The film always felt a bit too comfortable with its flawed protagonist, and now it feels even more problematic. It’s the same vibe as casting Duress, straight out of prison, in Good Time, or giving Kevin O’Leary a role in this one – it all feels…off.

It’s unclear if these events will impact the Oscar chances for the film Marty. While Timothée Chalamet, nominated for Best Actor, seems safe from any negative reaction since he wasn’t involved with Good Time, the film’s campaign is still being cautious. The Safdie brothers were removed from a planned public discussion with Chalamet on Thursday. As a fan of Marty, it’s disappointing to say, but when a nominee needs to be shielded from the public, it signals a major problem in their Oscar campaign.

Three Notes on Sinners’ Record-Breaking Nomination Total

Following the record-breaking number of nominations for Sinners (16 in total), some have pointed out that this was only possible due to the new Oscar category for Achievement in Casting. However, I disagree with the idea that Sinners unfairly benefited from this addition. There are currently 21 competitive categories at the Oscars, which is the same number that existed from 1983 to 2020, a period when the Academy presented two awards for Sound. In fact, two of the films that previously held the nomination record – Titanic and La La Land – also increased their nomination counts by being nominated in both Sound categories. (Titanic won both Sound awards, while La La Land lost Sound Mixing to Hacksaw Ridge and Sound Editing to Arrival.)

Let’s talk about All About Eve. At the 1951 Oscars, there were 22 awards, but that number is misleading. Categories like Best Score and some craft awards were split, meaning no film could realistically be nominated for everything. I spent a lot of time this week researching whether All About Eve—like Sinners—was nominated in every category it qualified for. The film didn’t have an original song or a “story by” credit, so it couldn’t compete in the Best Story category. It did have credits for “special photographic effects,” but it’s unclear if that made it eligible for Best Visual Effects. And the situation with George Sanders’ nomination is tricky: he was second-billed and could have been considered for Best Actor, but voters nominated him as a supporting actor instead. So, I’m concluding that All About Eve was nominated for every award it was truly eligible for—an impressive achievement! Congratulations again to the film.

However, when comparing films across different eras, Sinners clearly benefited from being released at a time when Best Picture nominees regularly earned far more nominations than they used to. This was especially true this year, with six films receiving eight or more nominations. This is partly because big blockbuster movies were particularly popular this season. But as Mark Harris pointed out years ago, this trend actually started when the Academy expanded the number of films considered for Best Picture – they broadened the definition of what qualified, but this resulted in fewer nominations overall. This year, only 15 films received nominations in the major categories (Best Picture, Director, acting, and screenplay), and that number hasn’t changed much in the last three years. Essentially, with 35 total spots available for directors, actors, and writers, only five films that weren’t nominated for Best Picture – Blue Moon, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, It Was Just an Accident, Song Sung Blue, and Weapons – managed to get recognized.

Looking back at recent Oscar nominations, it’s actually a step up from 2014! Back then, only three films not from the big studios even got nominated – and we have an extra Best Picture nominee this year, so that’s progress. Honestly, Sinners really embodies what’s been happening with the Oscars lately. It’s exactly the type of film the Academy broadened its scope – both in the nominations and its membership – to include. And once it was in the conversation, it exceeded all expectations. It’s a really great example of the changes we’ve seen.

2026-01-31 02:58