Is Sinners The Best Picture Favorite After Its Record 16 Oscar Nominations?

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Ryan Coogler’s film, Sinners, has made history with its impressive showing at the Oscars 2026. It received a record-breaking 16 nominations, surpassing the previous record by two.

The 2026 Oscar nominations are out, and Sinners received a remarkable 16 nominations! The film is up for Best Picture, along with recognition for the Director, lead Actor, supporting Actors and Actress, and a variety of technical and creative awards including Original Screenplay, Casting, Makeup, Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, Original Score, Original Song, Sound, and Visual Effects.

With an incredible performance, Sinners is now considered the strongest contender for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards. While One Battle After Another has been predicted to win for months, experts believe Ryan Coogler’s complex and thought-provoking vampire film may actually be the frontrunner to take home the top prize this year.

How The Oscars’ Previous Nomination Record Holders Faired In Best Picture

Before the movie Sinners achieved a new record, three films – All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land – were tied for the most Oscar nominations ever, with each receiving 14. All three films also won numerous awards at the Academy Awards.

When it comes to Best Picture winners, both All About Eve and Titanic took home the award. La La Land famously lost to Moonlight in a very controversial moment at the Oscars. These films were clearly beloved by audiences, as two of them went on to win the top prize after receiving a record number of nominations.

The film Sinners is currently leading the awards race. It received three more nominations than the second-highest film, One Battle After Another (which had 13). Based on the nomination numbers and how Academy voters behaved this year, Sinners is clearly the most favored film and is expected to receive a lot of recognition.

Does Having The Most Oscar Nominations In A Year Lead To A Best Picture Win?

While looking at past nomination leaders can give us some idea of how Sinners might do, it’s not a perfect comparison. Each year, films often receive a lot of nominations without breaking records. Historically, though, the film with the most nominations usually goes on to win Best Picture.

Over the 97 years of the Academy Awards, a single film usually leads in nominations – happening 69 times. In the remaining 28 years, two or three films were tied for the most nominations. Importantly, the film that ultimately wins Best Picture has been the most-nominated film about 63% of the time.

As a total film buff, I’ve been digging into the stats, and it’s fascinating. It turns out that in over 63% of cases, the movie with the most nominations actually was the frontrunner that year – just like Ryan Coogler’s Sinners seems to be for 2026. That really suggests it has a good chance of surprising everyone and potentially beating One Battle After Another. However, when you look at how these top-nominated films have actually done in recent decades, the picture gets a little more complicated.

Before the year 2000, the movie that received the most nominations usually went on to win Best Picture. From 1983 to 1999, only one Best Picture winner didn’t also have the most nominations. However, in the last 25 years, only 12 films that led in nominations have actually won the award.

There’s a recent trend at the Oscars: the film with the most nominations often wins Best Picture. Both Oppenheimer and Everything Everywhere All At Once followed this pattern in the last three ceremonies. Last year, Emilia Pérez was predicted to continue the trend, but faced challenges and didn’t perform as well due to some controversies.

The film Sinners is aiming for its third Best Picture nomination in four years. While it’s not currently the frontrunner, its chances in the Oscars race are steadily increasing. A win for Best Drama at the Golden Globes would have likely made it the favorite, especially considering its record number of nominations.

What It’ll Take For Sinners To Win Best Picture

As a huge movie fan, I’m still leaning towards One Battle After Another for Best Picture. It’s really dominated the awards season so far, winning big at the Critics’ Choice and Golden Globes. But don’t count Sinners out! It’s shown it’s a serious contender and has a couple of months to keep building momentum and potentially take the top prize at the Oscars. It’s going to be a close race!

Whether or not it ultimately succeeds will depend on how well it does at the upcoming award shows, including the Producers Guild Awards, the Actors Guild Awards, the Directors Guild Awards, and BAFTA. It’s been nominated for all of these except for the Writers Guild Awards, which will announce their nominations next week – though a nomination for the screenplay by Ryan Coogler is highly likely.

For Sinners to have a real shot at an Oscar, it needs to start winning awards now. A win at either the Writers Guild (WGA) or Screen Actors Guild (SAG) awards feels achievable and would greatly improve its chances for Best Picture. If Sinners also wins Best Film at the Producers Guild Awards (PGAs), it would likely become the frontrunner.

When considering whether Sinners could win Best Picture, it’s important to look at how many other Oscars it needs to win. Historically, Best Picture winners usually win between three and seven Oscars total – this has happened in 73 out of 97 times. If we include films with eight wins, that number jumps to 80 out of 97.

Can Sinners win two to six more awards? It’s likely to succeed at the lower end of that range, with strong predictions for wins in Cinematography, Casting, and Score. However, to have a real chance at Best Picture, based on past trends, it needs to win in bigger categories like Original Screenplay or Best Director.

Whether Sinners can win Best Picture is still uncertain, but it’s definitely possible. There’s a clear fondness for the film, and if that positive feeling leads to more awards throughout the season, it could become the frontrunner for the 2026 Oscars.

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2026-01-22 20:52