Bitcoin’s $3.4B Expiry: Will It Move Markets or Is It Just Another Day?

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Oh, joy. Another Bitcoin options expiry. This time, 37,000 contracts are set to expire on Friday, Dec. 5. And guess what? They’re worth around $3.4 billion. Not bad, right? But hold your horses-this is actually a smaller expiry compared to others. So, if you’re hoping for fireworks, don’t bother. The spot markets have already decided to calm down after the Monday sell-off. They’re just hanging out, doing their thing.

Meanwhile, the US government is once again showering us with economic data. Surprise! It’s a bit gloomy, which, apparently, is great news for those hoping for a rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week. Now, the odds of a 0.25% rate cut on Dec. 10? A whopping 87%, according to CME futures. So, yeah, the Fed might just toss us a bone.

Bitcoin Options Expiry

Let’s dive into the excitement of Bitcoin options. This batch has a put/call ratio of 0.94, meaning the longs and shorts are basically playing tug-of-war, and nobody’s winning. Max pain? Oh, it’s around $91,000. Yawn. According to Coinglass, open interest (OI)-that’s the total value of contracts that haven’t expired yet-has its highest value at $100,000. That’s a mind-boggling $2.7 billion on Deribit alone. Short sellers are eyeing $80k and $85k, but hey, what do they know?

For a little perspective, the total BTC options OI across all exchanges is sitting pretty at $55 billion. Is it just me, or does that sound like a lot of money for a bunch of contracts that could expire tomorrow? Whatever, it’s 2025, and the options market keeps growing. Institutional investors are getting more involved, so that’s cool… I guess.

Fun fact: Deribit set a record in October 2025 with 1.49 million BTC options contracts, followed by 1.33 million in November. Year-to-date, we’re looking at a nice 10.27 million contracts, a 36% increase from last year. So, yeah, apparently, people are getting more into this whole options thing.

In 2025, the options market has continued to develop as institutional participation has grown significantly.

On Deribit, BTC options recorded their highest monthly volume in October 2025 at 1.49M contracts, followed by November at 1.33M. Year-to-date BTC options volume stands…

– Laevitas (@laevitas1) December 3, 2025

Earlier this week, crypto options provider Greeks Live gave their two cents on the market. They said, and I quote, “cautiously bullish” with traders expecting upside-though they’re kind of frustrated with all the false moves and choppy price action. What a shocker! Who could’ve guessed?

“Key focus remains on whether current levels around $95k-$100k represent the final bottom, with traders watching BTC term structure and put skew showing bearish positioning despite bullish calls.”

Oh, and let’s not forget Ethereum. About 210,000 ETH contracts are also expiring, valued at $667 million. That’s cute. The max pain for Ethereum is around $3,050, and the put/call ratio sits at 0.78. Total Ethereum OI is around $11.3 billion. So Friday’s combined crypto options expiry? A delightful $4 billion. You’re welcome.

Spot Market Outlook

Now, if you’re into that “where’s the market heading?” drama, here’s the scoop: Crypto markets have dipped a little. Total market cap is down 1.7%, sitting at $3.23 trillion. Bitcoin couldn’t break resistance at $93,000, so it’s decided to take a little breather below that level. Ether? It’s hovering around $3,177, still fighting to break through $3,200.

Oh, and altcoins? Yeah, they’re taking a bit of a beating, especially XRP, Solana, and Hyperliquid. It’s a bloodbath out there, folks.

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2025-12-05 09:46