3 Signals Hint Altcoin Rotation Has Begun, But Altseason Is 47 Points Away

by

Three Signals Confirm Altcoin Rotation is Starting, but Altseason is 47 Points Away

Key Takeaways

  • AltSeason Index (90-day): 28.6, rising from Bitcoin Season territory.
  • Alt season threshold: 75. Current reading is 47 points below it.
  • Altcoin share of Binance volume: climbed from 31% to 49%.
  • CEX volume ratio shows altcoin increasing trend active in 2026.
  • This cycle’s peak AltSeason reading was early 2024, still below 75.
  • Early rotation confirmed across three independent datasets.

Three Signals, One Direction, One Important Caveat

Three independent datasets are describing early-stage altcoin rotation simultaneously in May 2026.

CryptoQuant’s 90-day AltSeason Index has jumped to 28.6, signaling a potential rise in altcoin performance. This is above the 20 level that typically marks the start of a Bitcoin season, and the index is continuing to climb. On Binance, altcoins now make up nearly half (49%) of all trading volume when combined with Bitcoin and Ethereum, up from 31%. Data also shows a consistent increase in altcoin trading volume, excluding the top five cryptocurrencies, suggesting this trend could continue into 2026.

All three point in the same direction. None of them point at alt season.

The AltSeason Index, currently at 28.6, needs to reach 75 to officially signal an ‘alt season’ – a period where alternative cryptocurrencies tend to outperform Bitcoin. It still has a ways to go, needing to climb 47 points. Interestingly, the remaining distance to an alt season is greater than the progress the index has already made since its lowest point. While a shift towards altcoins has begun, it hasn’t fully materialized yet.

The Cycle That Never Had a Real Alt Season

Looking back at previous ‘Alt Seasons’ – periods where cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin perform well – we see a pattern in the AltSeason Index chart. In 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022, the index consistently hit levels between 75 and 100, which are highlighted in grey on the chart. For example, the peak of the 2021 Alt Season was close to 95, and in 2022 it reached almost 90.

The recent market cycle topped out in early 2024, but didn’t reach a strong peak – staying below 75. According to analysis of CryptoQuant data by CW8900, this cycle didn’t really have a significant ‘alt season,’ where smaller cryptocurrencies outperform Bitcoin. The index only saw a small increase, indicating that money briefly moved into altcoins but never enough to create a lasting, typical alt season.

This new information affects how we interpret the current reading of 28.6. Typically, a rise from the ‘Bitcoin Season’ level to 28.6 would signal the start of an ‘alt season.’ However, because the market didn’t experience a full alt season during the previous peak, this reading could either mean the index is now starting a shift that will finally achieve what it missed in early 2024, or it could simply be repeating the same pattern of a temporary rise followed by another failure to reach the necessary level.

The current reading does not resolve that ambiguity. It raises it.

Volume Data Confirms Rotation, Not Destination

The chart tracking trading volume on centralized exchanges shows that altcoins (excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Ripple, and Binance Coin) are becoming more popular compared to these top five cryptocurrencies in 2026. The chart displays this increasing trend with yellow bars, and shows the ratio of altcoin volume rising from its lowest point in recent history.

The most significant recent development is that altcoins now make up almost half of all trading volume on Binance, increasing from 31% to 49%. This clearly shows money is flowing into altcoins beyond just Bitcoin and Ethereum – a measurable sign of investors shifting their funds.

Looking at the peak of 2021 helps us understand where we are now. Back then, trading volume on centralized exchanges (CEX) was over twice as high, and smaller cryptocurrencies (altcoins) outperformed the top five largest. Currently, the CEX Volume Ratio is around 0.3 to 0.4, meaning activity is much lower. The recent shift towards altcoins is happening at about 15-20% of the scale we saw during the last major altcoin season. While the trend is positive, the current movement isn’t yet as strong.

What 28.6 Actually Means

Currently, the AltSeason Index stands at 28.6, offering a quick way to understand the market’s position. This is above the 20 mark, indicating that Bitcoin isn’t the only coin driving the market anymore. However, at 47 points below the 75 threshold for a full alt season, the shift towards altcoins hasn’t yet reached the point where most altcoins will see significant gains.

An ‘AltSeason’ is likely starting when the AltSeason Index goes above 50, trading volume on centralized exchanges (CEX) keeps increasing, and altcoins make up more than 45% of the trading volume on Binance. These signs together suggest that the recent price increases in altcoins are continuing, not just hitting a temporary roadblock.

A potential altseason is likely over if the AltSeason Index drops below 20, and trading volume on centralized exchanges shifts away from altcoins, particularly on Binance where their share of the total volume falls back to around 31%. This would suggest the recent increase in altcoin activity was just a short-term shift within a larger trend of Bitcoin dominance, not the start of a sustained altseason.

I’m seeing a definite shift in the market – money is moving around, but it’s not flowing into altcoins *yet*. Right now, the overall market index needs to climb about 47 points before we can really say an alt season is upon us. Until then, it’s still early days.

This article is for informational purposes only and shouldn’t be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com doesn’t recommend any particular investment or cryptocurrency. Always do your own research and talk to a qualified financial advisor before investing.

Read More

2026-05-06 19:10