It is a truth universally acknowledged, that a holiday in the United States, such as the esteemed Presidents’ Day, should be observed with the closure of traditional markets. Yet, the crypto markets, ever the mavericks, remain open, though they display a certain languor as the week commences.
This week, the air is thick with the anticipation of several Federal Reserve speeches, alongside the release of manufacturing and services purchasing manager’s indexes, which promise to be as thrilling as a ball at Meryton.
“Inflation, that pesky companion to prosperity, is at its highest in at least 8 months, and the stock markets, dear reader, are nearing all-time highs,” observed the Kobeissi Letter, with a nod and a wink.
Economic Events Feb. 17 to 21
Both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) reports from the previous week came in above expectations. The forward-looking producer-price index, like a barometer of economic health, reflected the persistence of inflation, hinting at even higher February CPI readings.
Some housing reports are due this week, but they are of little consequence to high-risk assets such as crypto, much like a country dance is of little interest to a gentleman of fortune.
The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) January meeting will be released on Wednesday, shedding light on the central bank’s decision to maintain interest rates and offering a glimpse into the potential for future rate cuts, a topic as intriguing as a well-kept secret in a drawing room.
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will grace us with their insights through a series of speeches this week, each one a treat for the economically inclined.
February’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI preliminary readings are scheduled for Friday, serving as leading indicators to provide insights into the shifting economic landscape, much like a weather vane in a tempest.
January’s Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and Inflation Expectations will also be released on Friday, offering the results of a monthly survey of consumer confidence levels and views on long-term inflation in the United States, a document as eagerly awaited as a letter from a dear friend.
Key Events This Week:
1. US Markets Closed – Monday
2. January Housing Starts data – Wednesday
3. Fed Meeting Minutes – Wednesday
4. January Existing Home Sales data – Friday
5. 10 Fed speaker events this week
6. ~20% of S&P 500 companies report earnings
Short but busy…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 16, 2025
Retail giant Walmart, along with US-traded Chinese e-commerce companies Alibaba and Baidu, are set to deliver earnings reports this week, a spectacle as eagerly anticipated as a debutante’s first ball.
Crypto Market Outlook
Crypto markets, ever the capricious creatures, have retreated once more this Monday morning, experiencing a 2.3% slide, and dropping total capitalization to $3.33 trillion. The markets remain at the lower bounds of a three-month sideways channel, with support at $3.25 trillion, a position as precarious as a young lady’s reputation in society.
Bitcoin, the darling of the crypto world, lost 1.3% on the day, falling to just over $96,000 during early trading in Asia, having spent most of the weekend at the mid-$97,000 level. The asset has been range-bound for the past three months, a state as unchanging as the weather in a novel.
Ethereum, the second in command, remains weak, having fallen below $2,700, as its tightly bound channel continues sideways. ETH has been in a downtrend since early December, when it briefly topped $4,000, a fall as dramatic as a hero’s descent from grace.
Altcoins, the lesser-known siblings of the crypto family, are generally mixed at the moment, with minor gains for Binance Coin, Cardano, and Hyperliquid, and minor losses for Solana, Sui, and Litecoin, a state of affairs as varied as the guests at a country house party.
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2025-02-17 10:16