10 2026 Movies That Could Make $1 Billion, Ranked By Likelihood

Next year, 2026, is shaping up to be a huge year for movie theaters, with several films expected to earn over a billion dollars globally. While 2025 saw some big hits like A Minecraft Movie, Superman, and Jurassic World Rebirth, only three films have actually reached the billion-dollar milestone so far this year.

Disney’s recent live-action Lilo & Stitch and Zootopia 2 both earned over $1 billion at the box office, and Ne Zha 2 became a massive hit, taking in over $2 billion worldwide. Avatar: Fire and Ash is expected to join them, potentially giving 2025 four movies that each grossed over $1 billion. However, 2026 looks even more promising and could surpass that number.

2026 is set to be a big year for movies, with new installments planned for major franchises like Star Wars, Marvel, and Toy Story. We can also expect exciting films from well-known directors such as Christopher Nolan and Denis Villeneuve. Several of these movies have the potential to earn over $1 billion at the box office, though some are more likely to reach that milestone than others. Here’s a ranking of the 10 films most likely to cross the $1 billion mark in 2026.

10. Dune: Part 3 – 25%

Dune: Part Three continues the epic story started in Denis Villeneuve’s previous films, showing Paul Atreides gaining power on the desert planet Arrakis. The first two movies were excellent versions of Frank Herbert’s classic 1965 science fiction novel, combining impressive directing with stunning visuals. With the second film doing so well, the third installment has the potential to be even more popular.

The movie Dune, released in 2021, made $429.5 million around the world, even though it was available to stream at the same time as its theatrical release. Its sequel, Dune: Part 2, released in 2023, did even better, earning $714.8 million because it was shown only in theaters. While a third movie should continue the success of the series, it’s unlikely to reach $1 billion in total earnings.

While the Dune movies have been popular with both critics and viewers, the novel Dune: Messiah – which the next film is based on – explores some strange and unsettling themes. Director Villeneuve will probably adjust the story to make it easier to follow, but the resulting film might not have the large-scale action that most people expect.

Despite dealing with complicated stories and dark subject matter, the first two Dune movies resonated with viewers and performed well in theaters. This suggests there’s a solid fanbase that could make Dune: Part Three a success, particularly if people can experience it in a high-quality format.

9. Minions 3 – 30%

As a huge animation fan, I remember when Despicable Me came out in 2010 – it really launched something special! It’s incredible to think that franchise is now the highest-grossing animated series ever, having made $5.6 billion around the world. While I love Gru and his family, it’s the Minions who’ve really captured everyone’s hearts. They’ve become total icons, and their own movies have been massive hits too!

Currently, only two movies in the Despicable Me franchise have earned more than $1 billion at the box office: Minions (2015) and Despicable Me 3 (2017). Although the Minions films are still well-liked, recent releases are seeing slightly lower ticket sales. Both Minions: The Rise of Gru and Despicable Me 4 earned over $900 million globally, but didn’t quite reach the $1 billion milestone.

While Minions 3 is expected to do well, particularly with kids, and likely earn enough for a sequel, it probably won’t reach $1 billion at the box office, judging by the performance of the previous two movies.

8. Michael – 38%

Musical biopics have had varying levels of success in theaters. While Bohemian Rhapsody proved how popular these films can be, earning over $910 million globally, not all have reached that same height. Films like Elvis and A Complete Unknown did reasonably well, but others, including Better Man and Deliver Me From Nowhere, struggled to attract audiences.

What really makes the documentary Michael compelling is its subject. Michael Jackson was, without a doubt, one of the biggest artists of all time, reaching global fame that made him instantly recognizable everywhere. Even with all the controversies surrounding him, his music still resonates with people today, and that’s something the film really explores.

The first trailer suggests the Michael movie will be more than just a film – it’s designed to be a full concert experience, letting fans hear his music with incredible sound in a theater and learn about his life and career. While Bohemian Rhapsody was a huge success, Michael Jackson could potentially top it. However, it’s unlikely the movie will easily reach $1 billion at the box office.

7. The Mandalorian and Grogu – 42%

For the first time since 2019’s The Rise of Skywalker, a Star Wars movie is coming back to theaters. This new film features The Mandalorian and Grogu, continuing their story from the first three seasons of the Disney+ series. It’s difficult to predict how well this movie will perform at the box office, though.

The Star Wars franchise has consistently been a huge success in theaters around the world. Each of the three sequel films made over $1 billion, and The Force Awakens even surpassed $2 billion. Rogue One also reached the $1 billion mark, though Solo showed that not every Star Wars movie is a guaranteed hit.

The success of the Mandalorian and Grogu movie likely hinges on whether it can attract people who aren’t already fans of the show. A lot of viewers only watch the main Star Wars films and skip the spin-offs. Still, the characters – especially Grogu – are incredibly popular, and that popularity could be enough to push the movie past the $1 billion mark.

6. The Odyssey – 56%

Christopher Nolan has become a brand name in filmmaking. People will see his movies simply because he directed them, trusting he’ll deliver a great experience – as proven by the huge success of films like Oppenheimer, which earned nearly $1 billion worldwide despite being a long, mature-rated movie. He’s already directed two films that grossed over a billion dollars – The Dark Knight and The Dark Knight Rises – and his new film, The Odyssey, has the potential to make it a third.

The upcoming film, The Odyssey, is based on the classic Greek story by Homer and features a remarkable cast including Tom Holland, Matt Damon, Anne Hathaway, and many other stars. Although it won’t be released until July 17, 2026, early projections suggest it will perform well in theaters.

Tickets for Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey in 70mm IMAX became available a year before the movie even came out, and they quickly sold out. There’s a lot of excitement for the film, particularly the opportunity to experience it in the highest quality possible. Though it might not ride the wave of the “Barbenheimer” phenomenon, The Odyssey is well-positioned to become another billion-dollar success for Nolan.

5. Moana – 78%

©Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures /Courtesy Everett Collection

Since its release in 2016, Moana has continued to be a huge hit. Nielsen reports it was the most-streamed movie in both 2023 and 2024, and this lasting popularity helped its sequel, Moana 2, earn over $1 billion at the global box office.

Disney is already planning to build on the popularity of Moana with a live-action movie coming out in 2026. Considering how well the original film did, this remake could easily earn over $1 billion, although Disney’s live-action remakes haven’t always been successful.

Despite the disappointing performance of Snow White in 2025, Lilo & Stitch became a huge success, earning over a billion dollars and demonstrating continued interest in these types of movies. Even though the original Moana is less than a decade old, its strong performance both in cinemas and on streaming platforms suggests its upcoming remake will be very profitable.

4. Toy Story 5 – 86%

Toy Story 3 was a groundbreaking success, becoming the first animated movie to earn $1 billion globally. While it felt like a fitting end to the story, Pixar decided to make Toy Story 4. That turned out to be a smart decision, as the fourth film also earned over $1 billion, even surpassing the box office numbers of the third movie.

While some fans believe the Toy Story series ran its course after the third film, Toy Story 5 is expected to be another success for Pixar. Following the disappointing performance of Elio, Pixar is counting on both Hoppers and Toy Story 5 to regain momentum in 2026. Although Hoppers‘ potential is uncertain, a new Toy Story movie with Woody and Buzz is almost sure to be a hit.

Recent Disney/Pixar animated sequels, such as Zootopia 2 and Inside Out 2, have been huge successes at the box office, both earning over $1 billion. While Toy Story 5 is also expected to reach that milestone, its release is just two weeks before the next Minions movie, which could impact its potential earnings.

3. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie – 90%

Mario is a well-known character loved by people of all ages. He’s famous for his video games, but now you can also find him at theme parks and in movies. The 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie was a huge success, earning $1.36 billion around the world and becoming one of the highest-grossing animated films ever made.

The next movie in the series will explore brand new worlds, drawing inspiration from the Super Mario Galaxy games. With the addition of popular characters like Yoshi, Rosalina, and Bowser Jr., The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is expected to earn over $1 billion worldwide and potentially surpass the box office success of the first film.

2. Spider-Man: Brand New Day – 90%

Spider-Man is the most commercially successful superhero of all time, and his latest movie was a huge hit. No Way Home earned $1.9 billion globally, almost reaching the $2 billion mark. It’s the second Spider-Man movie within the Marvel Cinematic Universe to earn over $1 billion, following Far From Home, which achieved this in 2019.

Although “Brand New Day” won’t likely be a Spider-Man team-up movie featuring Tobey Maguire and Andrew Garfield, Tom Holland’s fourth film as Spider-Man is still predicted to be very successful. Spider-Man movies consistently perform well in theaters, and the addition of Mark Ruffalo as the Hulk and Jon Bernthal as the Punisher is building even more anticipation.

1. Avengers: Doomsday – 90%

While Marvel movies haven’t been as consistently successful at the box office since Avengers: Endgame, the upcoming Doomsday is expected to be a huge success, likely earning over $1 billion worldwide. Marvel’s team-up events usually do very well, and Doomsday could be their biggest one yet.

The new movie will feature a team-up of five iconic groups: The Avengers, the Thunderbolts, the Fantastic Four, the Wakandans, and the X-Men. They’ll be facing off against Doctor Doom, portrayed by Robert Downey Jr., and his motivations remain a secret. This story is part of a larger, multiversal narrative that is expected to lead into the events of Secret Wars.

The movie’s cast just got even bigger with the news that Chris Evans will reprise his role as Steve Rogers. While it might not make as much money as Infinity War and Endgame, Doomsday is still expected to be a huge box office success and could be the year’s highest-grossing film in 2026.

2025-12-27 19:53