Bitcoin exchange inflows surged significantly following the release of the US Consumer Confidence report, with the Bitcoin Exchange Inflow (Top 10) metric exceeding 5,000 BTC three times in a single day.
According to CryptoQuant, this metric tracks BTC deposits into the top 10 exchanges and often signals potential selling pressure as large holders or institutions move Bitcoin for liquidation.
Bitcoin Exchange Inflows
Notably, spikes in exchange inflows occurred before a decline in Bitcoin’s price which was indicative of major holders who may have preemptively prepared to sell ahead of the correction.
Additionally, increased volatility in inflows toward the end of the observed period coincided with a sharp BTC price drop to $86.9K, suggesting a combination of panic selling and strategic profit-taking by large investors.
The decline in consumer confidence, which has reached an eight-month low, has been attributed to mounting concerns over inflation and potential tariffs under a second Trump administration.
US President Donald Trump has proposed sweeping tariffs, including a 10% levy on all imports and potential 60%+ taxes on Chinese goods. Economists warn that such measures could raise consumer prices and further strain household budgets.
Businesses may pass additional costs onto consumers, thereby exacerbating inflation, while retaliatory tariffs from other countries could disrupt global supply chains and impact employment in key industries. These economic uncertainties likely contributed to increased Bitcoin market volatility.
Bitcoin’s Downside Risk
Bitcoin’s price tumbled to a three-month low this week, while the cryptocurrency market as a whole faced losses, which pushed the total market capitalization down to $2.91 trillion. Experts have warned market sentiment remains under strain with QCP Capital suggesting that a stagnant Bitcoin price could dampen further institutional demand and potentially limit upside momentum.
Meanwhile, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes also cautioned investors of potential Bitcoin market turbulence in his latest tweet as he predicted “goblin town incoming.” He highlighted the positioning of hedge funds holding shares of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) while simultaneously shorting Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) to capture a yield higher than short-term US Treasury rates.
However, if the futures basis – the spread between spot Bitcoin prices and CME futures – compresses as BTC declines, these funds may be forced to sell IBIT shares and buy back their short CME futures positions.
Hayes even went on to add that since these funds are currently in profit and the futures’ basis is nearing US Treasury yields, they are likely to unwind their trades during US trading hours to secure gains. This potential unwinding could create additional selling pressure on Bitcoin, driving prices down further.
According to Hayes, BTC is at the risk of revisiting the $70,000 level amid current market conditions.
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2025-02-26 18:56