Bitwise’s very own Matt Hougan, who looks like he stepped straight out of a library of economic tomes, has predicted that Bitcoin ETFs are set to strut across 2025’s finish line like a prize-winning poodle. Q4 inflows, he says, could break records in a manner that would make any accountant reach for smelling salts. 📈
In his note-probably written while sipping something strong and mysterious-Hougan ticked off three catalysts behind this anticipated frolic, citing platform approvals, the macroeconomic circus, and BTC’s recent price tap dance. 🎩
Hougan’s Hot Take
First up, institutions are now green-lighting Bitcoin ETFs as if someone had just shouted, “Let the party begin!” Morgan Stanley, on October 1, let its 16,000 advisors managing a mere $2 trillion in assets sprinkle up to 4% of crypto into portfolios for clients who sleep well at night while dreaming of digital gold.
Wells Fargo is doing the same, and Hougan hints that UBS and Merrill Lynch are twitching like poker players about to go all-in. It won’t happen overnight-these things never do-but the advisors he’s spoken to are positively jittery with pent-up demand. 😏
The second factor is the so-called “Debasement Trade,” which is really just a fancy way of saying “hedge against your dollars becoming Monopoly money.” Bitcoin and gold have been sashaying ahead in this year’s asset beauty pageant. Since 2020, the US has expanded its money supply by 44%, which makes this trade look rather sharp in comparison. Even JPMorgan is scribbling reports about it, presumably while twirling a pen. 🖊️
Hougan notes that advisors eager to make portfolios sparkle at year-end are likely to steer clients toward BTC ETFs, much as they did with tech stocks last year-because nothing says “look at me” like last-minute brilliance. ✨
Bitcoin Market Momentum
Finally, Bitcoin itself has been strutting its stuff. Recently topping $126,000, it sauntered past key psychological thresholds with a 9% gain in the first week of October alone. Historically, quarters where BTC posts double-digit returns are the same ones where ETF inflows flood in like an overenthusiastic butler bringing trays of champagne. 🥂
Early Q4 numbers already show Bitcoin ETFs gulping down $3.5 billion in just four trading days, sending YTD flows to $25.9 billion. With 64 trading days left, Hougan believes the sector could easily gulp another $10 billion and maybe even outshine last year’s $36 billion extravaganza. One can almost hear the confetti cannons going off. 🎉
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2025-10-09 06:57