You Won’t Believe What Bitcoin Did This Time 😳

by

Markets

Here’s the deal, folks: 🍿

  • Bitcoin bounced around like it had too much espresso – from $86K to $90K. What is this, a trampoline convention? 🤯
  • Big U.S. inflation numbers are dropping Thursday. Everyone’s holding their breath. Even the Fed. And trust me, they don’t breathe much. 😬
  • Crypto’s also sweating over MSCI possibly blackballing companies that are too “into” crypto. Like, it’s not a cult, but maybe stop wearing the t-shirt to shareholder meetings. 🙄

Crypto traders? Totally confused. Which is saying something, because most of them thought “blockchain” was a new type of yoga. 🧘‍♂️ But now BTC’s swinging more than my ex’s moods, and nobody knows what to do. Great.

We’re getting inflation data for November – the first since the government decided to go on a month-long vacation and canceled October’s report. Way to be reliable! 🙄 Now the Fed’s flying blind, like a bat with cataracts. 🦇

What’s the CPI Expected To Do? (Besides ruin my night)

Experts-yes, those people who also said “this time is different” in 2008-are guessing CPI rose 3.1% year-over-year. Core? Also 3.1%. So, still about a mile over the Fed’s cozy 2% target. 🎯

Translation: if inflation’s still jogging while the Fed wants it to nap, the hawks (you know, the guys who wear suits and scowl) might delay rate cuts. Which the market really, really wants. Like, “I need that vacation in Bali” wants. 🏖️

Right now, traders are pricing in two quarter-point cuts next year. Which is about as much as my dentist charges for a cleaning. Inflation still high? Say goodbye to those cuts. 👋

Expert View – Because Of Course There’s One

Enter Dr. Mohamed A. El-Erian – President of Queens’ College, Cambridge, economic advisor, investment guru, probably owns a monocle. 🔍 He said on X (formerly Twitter, now run by a guy who thinks memes are monetary policy):

“This release is highly anticipated… like the season finale of a mediocre show everyone pretends to watch.” (Okay, he didn’t say that last part. But he might’ve thought it.)

He did say we’re flying blind due to the shutdown, and that markets want to know: Are services finally cooling off? And are tariffs still jacking up prices like a sneaky landlord?

Why Bitcoin Might Care (Or Might Just Be Tired)

If inflation’s lower? Great! Maybe rate cuts come sooner! Risk appetite returns! People will buy junk again – homes, stocks, NFTs of bored apes. 🐵

But here’s the thing: BTC didn’t even flinch at the jobs data showing unemployment highest since 2021. Like, someone dropped a piano on the economy and Bitcoin just yawned. 😴

And the 10-year Treasury yield? Hasn’t dipped below 4% in months. It’s like that one friend who never leaves your couch. 🛋️ Why? Because investors still think inflation’s lurking – it rose from 2.3% in May to 3% in October. That’s not a trend; that’s a slow creep of doom.

Longer yields = bets on inflation, growth, and Fed moves. High yields = people would rather lock in a safe return than gamble on crypto. Sorry, degens. 🚫

So if inflation comes in hotter? Yields go up. BTC gets squeezed. It’s like trying to enjoy a sandwich while someone keeps turning up the thermostat. 🔥

Crypto’s Self-Inflicted Wounds (Classic)

And of course, crypto’s out here making everything worse. MSCI – the financial world’s strict librarian – is reviewing companies holding too much crypto. More than 50% exposure? You’re out. Like getting kicked out of book club for only reading conspiracy theories. 📚🚫

QCP Capital in Singapore says if this happens, up to $2.8 billion could flee. Passive investors don’t ask questions – they just follow the index. So if Tesla starts taking back its Dogecoin merch? That’s when you panic. Or don’t. I don’t know your life.

So here we are. Inflation data drops, BTC’s doing the cha-cha between $86K and $90K, the Fed’s squinting into the void, and crypto might get slapped by its own financial babysitters. 😅

Just another day in the market. Pass the popcorn. And maybe a Xanax. 💊

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2025-12-18 09:40