What Would a Sinners Surge Look Like?

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The period right after the Oscar nominations is usually quiet for awards season. Other events like the Grammys and Super Bowl take center stage, giving nominated films a chance to connect with voters at events like the Santa Barbara Film Festival and the Oscar Nominee Luncheon. Things are starting to pick up again now. Last weekend, the Directors Guild Awards were presented (Paul Thomas Anderson won for Best Feature, as many predicted), and on Thursday, the Costume Designers Guild Awards honored One Battle After Another, Frankenstein, and Wicked: For Good for their costume designs in contemporary, period, and sci-fi/fantasy categories, respectively.

This year, the period between nominations and the Oscars felt particularly slow. This might be because the ceremony is happening later than usual, or because the frontrunner for Best Picture, Oppenheimer, hasn’t changed much since September. However, with voters having extra time to consider their choices, it’s possible the race could still take unexpected turns. Many Oscar watchers are now wondering if Black Panther: Wakanda Forever‘s impressive number of nominations could signal a late surge for Ryan Coogler’s film. While a high nomination count doesn’t guarantee a win—as we saw with La La Land—it’s hard to ignore a film nominated in every possible category. It suggests it has a real chance of success.

Now that the nominations are out, much of the awards season discussion has been based on speculation and early indicators. However, things could become clearer starting with next weekend’s BAFTAs. If Sinners is truly gaining ground on One Battle After Another, what should we watch for? Here’s how the remaining awards shows and events can give us clues.

BAFTA Awards: The International View

Worries that Sinners wouldn’t resonate with international voters at the Academy were eased when Ryan Coogler’s film received 13 nominations from BAFTA. However, One Battle After Another, with 14 nominations, seems very confident about its chances at the February 22nd ceremony. While Franklin Leonard argues Sinners didn’t perform poorly overseas, the difference in box office numbers is significant. Although Sinners earned four times more money domestically than One Battle After Another, it only made two-thirds of its international revenue. Fortunately, experts believe this difference has already been factored into predictions. Most expect One Battle After Another to win Best Film at BAFTA, but Sinners can find some hope in the fact that three of the last four BAFTA winners didn’t win at the Oscars.

If Sinners wins in London, that would be a major breakthrough. Even if OBAA wins, Sinners can still be proud of performing well in other categories. They’re competitive in many craft areas and could pick up wins for Original Screenplay and Casting. An upset win for Wunmi Mosaku over Teyana Taylor for Supporting Actress is also possible. Ultimately, Sinners doesn’t need to beat One Battle at the BAFTAs – just stay close enough to be a contender.

Craft Guild Awards: Fool’s Gold

In the weeks ahead, various professional organizations will be presenting their awards. Late February will see the Artios Awards for casting, the ACE Eddie Awards for editing, and the Art Directors Guild Awards (which honor production design). However, because these awards split nominations by genre and time period, the films Sinners and OBAA won’t compete directly against each other at any of them. (One Battle won’t be at the Artios Awards either, as its casting director isn’t a member of the Casting Society.) Some guilds hold their ceremonies the week before the Oscars, and that’s where Sinners and OBAA will face off at the Golden Reel Awards (sound editing), CAS Awards (sound mixing), and ASC Awards (cinematography). By that point, though, most of the important awards shows will have already announced their winners, and Oscar voting will be over. So, those later results will be more of a side dish than a major indicator of who will win.

Non-Industry Awards: The Bellwethers

The major awards season from groups like the Gothams, Critics Choice, and Golden Globes is winding down, but a few smaller awards are still being given out. These awards don’t directly predict how the Academy will vote, but they can give us a sense of what’s popular with audiences. For the film Sinners, the NAACP Image Awards on February 28th are particularly important, as One Battle is only nominated for acting awards. The Dorian Awards on March 6th and the Satellite Awards on March 8th will also be worth watching. While each ceremony doesn’t have much impact on its own, strong support for Sinners from these groups could signal a shift in momentum, similar to what happened with Moonlight in 2017 when it gained traction with these same types of awards late in the season.

PGA Awards: The Moonshot

It’s worth considering past Oscar upsets. Both Moonlight over La La Land and Parasite over 1917 involved smaller, more artistic films winning over bigger studio productions. However, that comparison doesn’t quite fit the current race between Sinners and OBAA. In fact, Sinners feels like the more mainstream, bigger film. This raises a key question: could the Producers Guild Awards (PGAs) be where Sinners pulls off an unexpected win? That would be a significant surprise, given the PGAs’ strong record of predicting the Oscar’s Best Picture winner – they use a similar voting system. A win on February 28th would completely change how we see the race. But Sinners’ potential strength also means a loss would be more damaging. Moonlight and Parasite were able to overcome PGA losses because they weren’t widely expected to win. Sinners won’t have that same benefit of the doubt.

As a film awards follower, I always pay close attention to the SAG Awards – or, as they’re now called, the “Actor Awards” (it’s a bit of a strange name, honestly!). Historically, if a surprise winner takes Best Cast here, that film suddenly becomes a serious contender for Best Picture at the Oscars. I’ve noticed a pattern: films like Crash (2006), Moonlight (2017), Parasite (2020), and CODA (2022) all pulled off an upset win for Best Cast at SAG, and that momentum seemed to carry them forward. There’s something special about seeing the entire cast recognized together – it feels like all their combined energy unlocks the film’s potential. CODA also won the PGA award, but the circumstances were unusual that year, so their SAG win felt even more like a breakthrough moment.

The film Sinners appears to have a strong chance of winning a Screen Actors Guild Award. It shares characteristics with previous winners like Hidden Figures and Black Panther – a large, diverse cast and broad popular appeal. Similar to winners such as The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Conclave, it isn’t expected to win any individual acting awards, which could actually boost its chances for the overall prize. The Guild voters clearly responded well to Sinners, as it was the only precursor award show to nominate Miles Caton for Supporting Actor.

The Actor Awards are scheduled for March 1st, immediately following the PGA ceremony. By the end of that weekend, we’ll likely know if the initial positive reaction to Sinners translates into actual awards success. If Sinners wins at either of those events, and then performs well at the WGA Awards the following weekend (where it’s competing separately from OBAA), it will be a strong contender for Best Picture at the Oscars.

Hollywood Dispatch: What You Missed at the Oscar Nominee Luncheon

https://youtube.com/watch?v=watch?v=iDO61yl00Ow

The Oscar Nominee Luncheon, a beloved annual event, took place this week. It’s a chance for all the Oscar nominees to get together, dress up, and take a group photo – it feels a bit like a high school yearbook picture! Not everyone could make it this year, including Sean Penn, Renate Reinsve, and Mehdi Mahmoudian. Luckily, Vulture’s L.A. managing editor, Anusha Praturu, was there to experience it. I asked her to share what it was like, even though she had other work to do!

Anusha, this was your first time at the Nominee Luncheon. How did the event compare to your expectations? It was pretty much what I anticipated – lunch, a group photo, and lots of socializing and selfies. However, a few things surprised me. I didn’t realize it would feel so much like a real awards show, with a formal setup. The ballroom was windowless and a bit dark, with a fancy entrance area, multiple bars, and a stage with a spotlight and podium. I thought it would be more casual, but there was a clear schedule of events, including video montages of the nominees. I also expected to be at a designated press table, but instead, I randomly picked a table number and sat with the nominees and other guests. Each table had just one journalist, and they made sure nominees weren’t seated with castmates. It felt more like a networking event than anything else.

That’s great! I was sitting with some really talented people. At my table were Hannah Beachler, who was nominated for her production design work on Sinners; Mike Hill, nominated for Jacob Elordi’s hair and makeup in Frankenstein; Andrew Freedman, a nominee in the Animated Short Film category for Retirement Plan; and David Vickery, who was nominated for the visual effects in Jurassic World Rebirth. Set decorator Missy Parker, who’s on the board of governors, was also there, along with each of their guests.

I don’t want anyone sharing confidential information, but what did you all talk about generally? Mostly, we discussed our favorite movies of the year. There were some strong opinions on Marty Supreme and Hamnet, and a lot of people really liked Sentimental Value and One Battle After Another. We also talked about the usual things – shrinking attention spans and the potential impact of AI. Someone shared a recent viral post by Matt Shumer on X, and that sparked a long conversation as well.

I chatted with Mike Hill while we were sitting together, and he told me about his upcoming move from Los Angeles. He’s lived there for over twenty years, but with the entertainment industry shifting away, he feels there aren’t many reasons to stay. He recently bought a place in rural Pennsylvania, near the Pocono Mountains. I asked if he was planning to retire, but he said he’ll still take on jobs, just flying in when needed. It feels like Los Angeles isn’t the center of the entertainment world like it used to be.

The atmosphere was incredibly lively and celebratory, almost like a high-spirited college reunion. Teyana Taylor was a standout, warmly greeting everyone and genuinely enjoying the conversations. Rita Wilson also seemed to be effortlessly connecting with people, juggling multiple chats at once. Jacob Elordi drew a lot of attention, partly because he’s so tall and easy to spot! Some of the more famous attendees – Leonardo DiCaprio, Steven Spielberg, Timothée Chalamet, and Emma Stone – mostly stuck to posing for photos and participating in the group picture, and didn’t do much mingling. At the end, each nominee was called onstage, and Ryan and Zinzi Coogler received the loudest applause.

Who wore the best outfit? Miriam Margolyes, who was there for the nomination of the live-action short film A Friend of Dorothy, stunned in a completely sequined suit.

You know, covering this event, one of the most amusing things I witnessed didn’t even make it onto Instagram. Picture this: everyone emerging blinking into the sunlight around 3:30 in the afternoon, a little wobbly after a four-hour lunch fueled by…well, let’s just say plenty of drinks. It was all happening in this dimly lit ballroom, and honestly, I kept wondering why they didn’t just call it dinner! It was a genuinely funny, real-life moment you wouldn’t have known about unless you were there.

Aside from Teyana Taylor and the cast/crew of Black Panther, were there any other people who really stood out and got a big reaction from the crowd? The directors Chloé Zhao, Paul Thomas Anderson, and Guillermo del Toro received particularly strong applause when introduced. I personally cheered for Domee Shi, the director of Turning Red.

So, about the food – it was a basic three-course meal: salad, miso chicken with rice, and berries and cream with macarons and truffles for dessert. I don’t expect much from catered events that big, but it was surprisingly good! I especially enjoyed the berries and cream, or maybe the coffee at the end – I really needed that caffeine boost!

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2026-02-14 02:57