What to Expect as the US Government Shutdown Spirals into Week Two (And No One Is Getting Paid)

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Ah, the delightful spectacle of a government shutdown – an annual tradition in the US, where many federal employees are thrust into unpaid exile, while others carry on working as if they were particularly loyal servants, without a cent to show for their trouble. The cause? A shocking, yet somehow unsurprising failure to pass a stopgap measure last week. What a charmer, this government. 🎩

As of Monday morning, the drama continues with no deal in sight between the Republican and Democratic denizens of Congress. They’re far too busy bickering to worry about trivial matters like keeping the government running. Among the casualties: the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), those paragons of financial regulation, are as functional as a broken pocket watch. ⏳

The Senate, ever the last hope, has scheduled a vote at 5:30 pm ET on a continuing resolution. But don’t hold your breath – we all know how these things go. There’s a great deal of uncertainty about whether this resolution will survive, much like the fate of a summer romance.

The Democrats, in their infinite wisdom, have decided that the crux of this deadlock lies in healthcare. Their demand? That any spending bill must reverse cuts from a budget measure passed back in July. Why not? After all, what better time to address healthcare than when the government is teetering on the edge of dysfunction? 💉

Meanwhile, the digital asset industry watches in horror as the SEC, now operating with a skeleton crew, grumbles about its “modified conditions.” This means that any hope of reviewing crypto exchange-traded fund applications is nothing more than a distant dream. The CFTC, even more bereft of staff, is in a similar state of paralysis. It’s a sight to behold! 🌐

Przemysław Kral, CEO of Zondacrypto, summed it up perfectly: “The shutdown can damage the crypto industry,” he says, as if the crypto world doesn’t have enough problems. Their capacity to innovate will be stunted, investor confidence might falter, and the US will continue to play catch-up in the global crypto race. What a tragedy! 😱

And as for the digital asset market structure bill? Forget it. The Senate is far too busy playing their usual game of political Jenga to consider anything so trivial. Trump’s nomination of Brian Quintenz as CFTC chair has also been withdrawn, likely due to a little pushback from the Winklevoss twins, those titans of cryptocurrency. Poor Brian.

Crypto Users Are Betting on a Prolonged Shutdown

Of course, the true connoisseurs of this shutdown are the gamblers on Kalshi and Polymarket, who are placing their bets like it’s a high-stakes poker game. The consensus? The shutdown will drag on, but it won’t set any records. Not yet, at least. Trump’s previous 35-day shutdown over the border wall remains the gold standard for now. 🏆

On Kalshi, a 69% chance of the shutdown lasting over 15 days is predicted. A mere 41% chance of it extending past 25 days, and a 24% chance that this one will outlast Trump’s record. As for Polymarket, they give it a 72% chance of wrapping up by October 15. Mark your calendars, folks. 📅

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2025-10-06 21:46