Whales Accumulate 10M ADA as Price Drops 75%: What’s Next for Cardano?

by

<a href="https://minority-mindset.com/ada-usd/">ADA</a> Lost 75% in 6 Months: Here is What Its Biggest Holders Did Every Month

Key Takeaways

  • ADA price: $0.2477, 4H MAs compressed: 50 at $0.2487, 100 at $0.2494, 200 at $0.2480.
  • RSI(14): 50.29 faster signal, 48.12 slower signal, both at exact midline.
  • Spot taker CVD: buy-dominant since November 2025, six consecutive months.
  • Retail activity: neutral gray in both spot and futures throughout entire downtrend.
  • Whale holdings: 10M ADA added April 27-30, total holdings 5.71B ADA.
  • Futures volume bubble map: cooling/neutral since February 2026, no overheating.

The 75% Drop Nobody Panicked About

Cardano‘s price has dropped significantly, falling from around $1.00 in October 2025 to $0.247 today – a loss of 75% in just six months. Interestingly, trading data doesn’t show typical retail investor behavior during this decline. There’s no evidence of widespread selling, either from individual investors trying to get out or from panic-driven surges in trading activity.

This lack of activity isn’t due to disinterest, but rather how the market works. During crypto downturns, regular investors often provide the funds that allow larger, more experienced traders to sell their holdings at higher prices, and then buy back in when prices are at their lowest. However, these buying and selling patterns by regular investors aren’t easily seen in typical trading data. The data only shows *how often* people are trading, not *what* they’re doing – so regular investors may have been selling at their usual pace. What the data *does* show is that they weren’t suddenly rushing to sell or buy in large numbers. The general public wasn’t making any dramatic moves in either direction.

Six Months Of Whale Orders In Both Markets Simultaneously

Since November 2025, both the spot and futures markets have consistently shown that the most common orders are very large, which we call ‘Big Whale Orders’. Even as the price dropped from $0.70 to $0.25 over the past six months, these large orders have remained dominant in both markets.

Looking at large cryptocurrency orders over the past six months, it appears more likely that these orders represent investors selling their holdings rather than buying more. While these large transactions might *look* like accumulation, especially from an external perspective – similar to what we’d see if large holders were buying at prices around $0.70 or $0.80 – the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) data tells a different story. Specifically, six months of consistently positive CVD readings, showing more buying than selling in the spot market, indicates that these large orders are actually net purchases. Combining these two data points – large orders and CVD – gives us a clearer picture than either one could provide on its own, resolving the uncertainty about whether these large players are buying or selling.

What’s unusual in this data is seeing large players (often called ‘whales’) dominating both the immediate (spot) and future contract markets at the same time. Typically, activity in the spot market suggests long-term investment, while futures activity points to short-term, leveraged speculation. However, six months of this simultaneous dominance happening while the price dropped 75% indicates a deliberate strategy across both markets. It likely involves using futures to protect investments made in the spot market, or to profit from the price difference between the two. This isn’t ordinary investors trying to predict the lowest price; it’s large-scale positioning without any sign of typical retail investor behavior.

Recent data from Ali Martinez shows that large ADA holders, known as whales, have been buying more of the cryptocurrency. Between April 27th and 30th, they added over 10 million ADA to their holdings, increasing their total from 5.68 billion to 5.71 billion.

Whales accumulated over 10 million Cardano in the past 72 hours.

— Ali Charts (@alicharts)

The price of ADA recently hit $0.247, a level it last reached in late 2023 before a significant price increase to $1.00. Investors who bought ADA at this price during the previous market cycle are now at their break-even point and are unlikely to sell. Conversely, most of the current sellers bought ADA at a higher price and are currently experiencing losses. As these sellers are forced to sell and the ownership shifts, the remaining buyers are more likely to be long-term investors with strong confidence in ADA’s potential, rather than short-term traders reacting to frustration. The fact that large orders have been consistently accumulating over the past six months supports this idea.

What The CVD Charts Are Actually Saying Together

CryptoQuant’s spot exchange data shows consistent buying pressure since November 2025. For six months, even as the price dropped from $0.70 to $0.25, buyers were actively purchasing at the current market price. This wasn’t just placing orders at a desired price; it was determined buying, even if it meant paying a little more to ensure the trade went through. The futures exchange data supports this, showing mostly buying activity with a short dip in October 2025, then stabilizing into a mostly neutral-to-positive trend between April and May 2026.

The health of the market is indicated by a shift: while futures trading is moving towards a neutral position, immediate (spot) purchases remain strong. This suggests that excessive speculation in futures is decreasing. The move to neutral replaces previous bullish signals as traders reduce their long positions in futures contracts. However, continued buying in the spot market is a positive sign. This situation is the opposite of what we’d see in an unstable market, where futures trading drives up prices while actual asset owners are selling. Instead, ADA is showing strong buying of the actual asset in the spot market, and leveraged speculation is decreasing in futures. This indicates a solid foundation and diminishing speculative pressure.

The Compression That Precedes Direction

Looking at the 4-hour chart, several key moving averages are clustered very closely together, all within a small price range of $0.0014. The 50-day moving average is at $0.2487, the 100-day at $0.2494, and the 200-day at $0.2480. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing readings of 50.29 and 48.12, both very close to the 50 level. This suggests a lot of uncertainty in the market, happening at the same time that large investors (whales) are showing strong confidence in the asset.

The price has been squeezed into a very tight range – with several moving averages now just $0.0014 apart on a four-hour chart – after a six-month downward trend. This build-up of pressure suggests a significant price move is coming, but doesn’t indicate whether it will be up or down. While it increases the chance of a strong, clear trend rather than a slow drift, the pressure could also lead to continued sideways movement. After a 75% drop over six months, the price has been mostly flat, and the converging moving averages suggest the next sustained move will be the first in half a year. Trading volume data confirms this calm, showing no signs of overheating or excessive speculation that would suggest a breakout in a particular direction.

The Missing Ingredient And What Provides It

Based on both on-chain and derivatives data, all indicators are currently positive. We’re not seeing much activity from retail investors, but larger investors (whales) are actively buying. The current flow of funds into Bitcoin shows strong buying pressure, while speculative trading in futures is decreasing. Trading volume is stable, and technical indicators suggest a period of consolidation. However, these charts can’t tell us *what* will trigger the next significant price movement – the catalyst remains unknown.

ADA’s price could recover if more individual investors start buying it again. A general rise in the cryptocurrency market, even without increased ADA-specific buying, could also boost its price – especially if Bitcoin reaches $90,000, which would likely lift all cryptocurrencies, including ADA. Regardless of which scenario plays out, monitoring retail investor activity will be key. When the charts shift from neutral to showing either ‘Few Retail’ or ‘Many Retail’ investors, it signals that the crowd is entering the market at levels where large investors have been quietly accumulating ADA for the past six months.

The price hitting $0.260 and staying above it, combined with a slight increase in buying activity, would confirm the start of a price increase. Conversely, falling below $0.232, alongside fewer large transactions, would suggest this price increase isn’t happening and that support at that level is weakening. These price movements are expected to resolve within one to two weeks, while the timing of retail investor activity is less predictable. Both indicators are currently focused on the $0.247 price level.

This article is for informational purposes only and shouldn’t be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com doesn’t support or suggest any particular investment or cryptocurrency. Always do your own research and talk to a qualified financial advisor before investing.

Read More

2026-05-01 15:41