TRX’s Descent: A Tale of 50% Pain and Active Addresses?

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The TRX price, once a sprightly waltz at $0.3695 in Q3 2025, now limps along with the gait of a man who’s just discovered his shoes are made of lead. Since then, the momentum has not merely cooled-it has frozen solid, like a peasant’s soup in a Siberian winter. The $0.3339-$0.3500 range, once a mere footnote, has grown into a fortress of resistance, repelling sellers with the ferocity of a matron guarding her tea cakes.

This zone, far from being a random blip on the chart, has become a veritable fortress, its walls reinforced by repeated rejections. At current levels near $0.2864, TRX/USD dangles beneath a ceiling it cannot breach, like a child staring at a cookie jar just out of reach.

And when a rally dares to kiss this pressure, it is often a prelude to a grand finale-rarely a bullish overture.

The Long-Term Channel’s Return

Now, here’s where the plot thickens. In 2025, TRX broke free from a long-term ascending channel, a moment of triumph that felt as hopeful as a spring thaw. But the market, that sly trickster, has turned the former breakout into a test of endurance. The upper border of the channel, once a beacon of hope, now looms as a potential support-though its resilience is as uncertain as a drunkard’s balance.

If it holds, the structure endures. If it falls, TRX plunges back into the channel’s embrace.

And therein lies the discomfort. A confirmed breach below this wedge could send TRX hurtling toward $0.2215. Lose that, and $0.1354 becomes the inevitable endpoint of a broader correction. From $0.2864, that’s a 50% loss-a financial equivalent of a man losing his hat in a storm.

So when traders speak of a bearish TRX prediction, they refer not to whimsy but to a calculated, if cruel, arithmetic.

The Utility of a Sudden Rally

Yet, price does not wander alone. The previous rally, far from being a product of mere hype, was fueled by a surge in USDT activity. More stablecoin transfers meant greater blockchain utility, which in turn meant more active addresses-like a village buzzing with the energy of a festival.

In February, active addresses reached 5.60 million, a peak as fleeting as a firefly’s glow. They’ve since dipped to 4.74 million. The decline, though modest, is a whisper of unease. The broader multi-year trend remains intact, but every test of a trendline is a gamble, as precarious as balancing on a tightrope stretched between two cliffs.

Still, here’s the bitter truth: the more a trendline is tested, the more it resembles a house of cards in a hurricane.

The 4 Million Line in the Sand

Q1 2026 may bring another retest of this rising trend. If the metric falters decisively, especially below the 4 million mark, it signals a decline in network utility-a portent as ominous as a crow’s cry at dawn.

And that could spell disaster. With stablecoins as the lifeblood, a drop in their activity would mean reduced liquidity. And liquidity, once lost, is a fickle friend, prone to vanish like mist at sunrise.

So what awaits? Everything hinges on support-both on the TRX price chart and in active addresses. If both crumble, a correction toward $0.2215, or even $0.1354, is not merely possible but almost inevitable.

At this juncture, the TRX price is not yet in free fall. But it teeters on a trapdoor, waiting for the slightest nudge to plunge into the abyss.

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2026-02-26 15:53