As someone who has been following the world of cinema for quite some time now, I must say that this year’s acting categories are as unpredictable as a rollercoaster ride at Coney Island! The recent awards from the New York Film Critics Circle and the National Board of Review have certainly added an exciting twist to the race.
The first week of December is always a whirlwind on the Oscars front. On Monday, the Gotham Awards lit up Wall Street with plates full of melted cheese and approximately 73 different tribute awards. On Tuesday, the New York Film Critics Circle members sequestered themselves to vote on their favorites, like Conclave with even more vaping. Wednesday brought the National Board of Review’s winners and the Spirit Award nominations, while Thursday saw the American Film Institute release its top-ten list. For many, this flurry marks the official arrival of Moira Rose’s favorite season.
Indeed, the awards season isn’t confined to a single period. In my estimation, it can be divided into five distinct mini-periods, and we’ve just entered the third one this week.
The period from late August to early October marks the beginning of Festival Season, a time when prestigious events such as Venice, Telluride, and Toronto unveil their star-studded premieres. Following these showcases, contenders strive to bolster their credibility at New York and other regional festivals.
➼ Vibes Season (from mid-October to late November)
During this period, the first award-contending films make their way into cinemas. Early favorites strive to reestablish themselves. Films that bypassed fall festivals rush to be screened before year-end critics’ rankings. This phase culminates at the Governors Awards where everyone is in high spirits as no one’s aspirations have been shattered yet (thanks to The Ankler’s Katey Rich for this title’s inspiration).
➼ Tastemaker Season – You’re Currently Here
During the period between late December and early January, often just before Christmas, the Oscar shortlists are announced, providing insights from actual Academy members for the first time. Following a break over the holidays and the Golden Globes ceremony, various guilds then share their nominations. This period culminates with the announcement of the Oscar nominees, propelling us into…
➼ In the period between late January and early March (Phase Two), we reach a crucial stage where the field is narrowed significantly and the competition becomes more intense. The highlight of this phase is the annual Nominee Luncheon, which results in the famous group photograph. After six months of anticipation, we finally have the grand event on March 2.
In New York, the start of Tastemaker Season feels like a carnival arriving. Most major competitors jet in for the Gothams and often stay longer to boost their campaigns. Last Tuesday, I attended events for both “Wicked” and “Emilia Pérez”, placing me in the same space as Ariana Grande and Selena Gomez within two hours (making me feel almost like Zedd). Meanwhile, uptown, A24 hosted a screening of “Queer”, although it’s unclear if the scheduling allowed anyone to catch this season’s dual feature from Boston.
At these gatherings, many conversations revolved around the core topic of Tastemaker Season. Specifically, people were discussing whether any events from the prior evening’s Gothams or the NYFCC in the afternoon had any real significance.
It’s clear why we should exercise caution. The events during Tastemaker Season are heavily influenced by a select group of individuals – around 30 New York journalists at the NYFCC and small creative juries at the Gothams. To call it a “New York bubble” is almost flattering; given my connections within these circles, it’s more like an insular New York community. In 2019, my first Gotham Awards experience, the top winner was Marriage Story. The following year, it was The Lost Daughter. Both were good films, but I can’t help but wonder if their award journeys would have played out differently had they not won that night.
Although they may not be as prominent, smaller films can still significantly benefit from recognition by tastemakers. For instance, the same year “The Lost Daughter” won Best Feature, the Gotham Awards bestowed their international-film prize upon “Drive My Car”. This trend was echoed by the New York Film Critics Circle (NYFCC) and other critics groups, ultimately propelling Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s film onto the radar of Academy Award voters. Consequently, I believe this week’s honors will primarily benefit lesser-known films that thrive on the attention provided by these influential bodies. For example, the Latvian animated film “Flow”, which outshone more prominent competitors at the NYFCC and National Board of Review (NBR), and received an International nomination at the Spirit Awards. Similarly, the Palestinian documentary “No Other Land” garnered nonfiction awards from the Gothams and NYFCC, as well as a special recognition from the NBR, despite currently lacking distribution.
High-profile competitors also gain advantages from the limelight, as I had been optimistic about Sing Sing‘s prospects, but it’s hard to contradict those who were doubtful. However, at the Gothams, I witnessed an overwhelming enthusiasm in the audience when the film’s previously imprisoned actors stepped onto the stage to receive their tribute award. I observed Clarence Maclin earn the night’s most passionate standing ovation for his Supporting Performance. I saw Colman Domingo deliver a heartfelt acceptance speech as Lead Performance winner, dedicating it to his castmates. Earlier, we perceived Sing Sing as a promising contender. Now, we have felt its potential. That makes a difference.
Winning at one of these ceremonies can certainly be its own reward, without a doubt. In the final moments, the Gotham Awards threw a surprising twist by giving the Best Feature award to “A Different Man“, an unconventional dark comedy about an actor with a facial deformity that had been largely overlooked elsewhere. It’s probable that this was a rare occurrence. The film didn’t create much buzz during its limited release this fall, it ranks low on A24’s list of priorities, and it wasn’t even nominated in the top category at the Spirit Awards. However, this unexpected win at the Gothams doesn’t diminish its significance; if anything, it increases it. (I ponder whether director Aaron Schimberg wishes he had prepared a speech — though, in a way, that, too, made it a memorable awards season moment.)
I’m thrilled about Tastemaker Season because while victories might not hold significant weight, defeats mean absolutely nothing. This week has brought an unexpected twist as two highly anticipated films, Anora and The Brutalist, have underperformed in some areas. At the Gothams, these films were overlooked, and I even spotted a few members of the Anora team looking disheartened by the bar before last call, although that could just be their usual demeanor. Similarly, The Brutalist fared well with the New York Film Critics Circle, winning Best Film and Best Actor, but faced some surprising snubs at the Spirit nominations; Anora, on the other hand, excelled in the Spirits but had to settle for a Screenplay win from the critics. In essence, both films were casualties of their own success – perhaps the tastemakers believed they didn’t require additional support because they were already considered frontrunners. And guess what? They were likely correct! On Thursday, both Anora and The Brutalist made it onto the AFI top-ten list, an accolade that typically predicts a Best Picture nomination. All in all, they’re on solid ground.
Oscar Futures: Precursors Disperse Their Purse, For Better or Worse
Each week from now until the Academy Awards nominations are unveiled on January 17, Vulture will use its crystal ball to predict shifts in this year’s Oscar competition. In our “Oscar Predictions” segment, we’ll share behind-the-scenes news, analyze fresh updates, and monitor industry chatter to identify contenders gaining ground, those losing steam, and the current frontrunners vying for a sought-after Oscar nomination.
Best Picture
Even = The Brutalist
In a similar manner to a wealthy industrialist who relies on cheap immigrant labor, “The Brutalist” both gives and takes away. Brady Corbet’s cinematic behemoth was celebrated by the New York Film Critics Circle, earning Best Film and Best Actor for Adrien Brody. However, it only received a solitary directing nomination for Corbet at the Spirits, and was overlooked in favor of “Gladiator II” on the National Board of Review’s top 10 list. Despite this, better days are undoubtedly on the horizon. For now, however, “The Brutalist” finds itself in an awkward position: it’s not quite the underdog for the more artistic precursors, but it’s also not mainstream enough to appeal to the more conventional ones.
Up ⬆ A Complete Unknown
In an unusual turn of events, last season saw the same nominees at the PGA awards as at the Oscars. This year’s AFI top 10 list, which includes the Bob Dylan biopic among its picks, has sparked speculation about the Best Picture lineup. Its inclusion in the tenth spot suggests a strong possibility. The AARP Movies for Grownups nominations, where ‘A Complete Unknown’ made a strong showing a few weeks ago, might be more indicative of the trend than initially thought?
Current Predix
Anora – The Unknown One
Best Director
Up ⬆ RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys
In addition to “Sing Sing,” “The Nickel Boys” was another major victor during Tastemaker Season. Not only did director Regina King secure two awards for directing from the Gothams and NYFCC – at 6′ 6″, she joked that she was the tallest person ever to accept an award on the former stage – but the film also garnered recognition for actor Brandon Wilson at the Gothams, as well as Jomo Fray’s unique cinematography at the NYFCC. Given the critical acclaim for King’s thought-provoking and visually daring work, it comes as no surprise that many critics are praising her efforts. With the Academy increasingly embracing auteur directors, it seems fitting that they would also recognize King’s talents.
Up ⬆ Jon M. Chu, Wicked
This week’s precursors, specifically the National Board of Review, leans most towards commercial films. Notably, they declared Top Gun: Maverick as the best film of 2022. However, it was unexpected that they would show such strong appreciation for the musical Wicked, awarding it Best Film, Best Director, and a special honor for “the creative collaboration between Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande.” I remain doubtful if a studio filmmaker like Chu will receive similar recognition from the Academy’s most snobbish branch – Maverick‘s Joseph Kosinski never even came close to being nominated. If this trend continues, I may have to re-evaluate my expectations.
Current Predix
Jacques Audiard: Emilia Pérez; Sean Baker: Anora; Edward Berger: The Conclave; Brady Corbet: The Brutalist; RaMell Ross: The Nickel Boys
Best Actor
Up ⬆ Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
As a movie enthusiast, I was moved by Brody’s heart-wrenching portrayal of a Hungarian Holocaust survivor in the film “The Brutalist” this week. Yet, to keep things interesting, the Spirit Awards chose not to recognize his performance in their Lead Performance category that embraces all genders. While Brody won Best Actor in 2003 and is likely a strong contender for an Oscar, I’m hesitant to anoint any front-runner in this unpredictable category at this point.
Up ⬆ Daniel Craig, Queer
In the Best Actor category, it appears that Timothée Chalamet has secured a place, leaving only one vacant spot. The front-runner for this remaining position seems to be Craig, as he was selected as the Best Actor by the National Board of Review (NBR). Notably, Luca Guadagnino’s film was also included in the NBR’s top 10 list, along with John Waters’ film. Although the NBR and the Academy have limited overlap, the NBR has been consistent in recognizing an eventual Oscar nominee over the past four years. However, previous winners like Tom Hanks from The Post and Adam Sandler from Uncut Gems can attest that nothing is ever certain in this race.
Current Predix
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist; Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown; Daniel Craig, Queer; Colman Domingo, Sing Sing; Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Best Actress
Up ⬆ Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
A few months ago, I had a casual discussion with a fellow commentator about potential dark horses for the New York Film Critics Circle (NYFCC), and we both agreed that Jean-Baptiste was the strongest contender: She delivers an outstanding performance in a film that has garnered praise from critics, but it struggles to gain traction. Lo and behold, our prediction proved accurate as Jean-Baptiste’s character, a humorously ill-tempered Londoner, won the NYFCC Best Actress award over Hard Truths, which is set to open in New York and Los Angeles this weekend. In an incredibly competitive year for Best Actress, the British actress will face a tough battle. She portrays one of the most unsavory characters seen since Monstro Elisasue, and her studio Bleecker Street lacks the resources of other distributors. However, Jean-Baptiste received crucial support this week, and if more critics’ awards come her way, it should help boost her chances.
Up ⬆ Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
The National Board of Review, fond of A24 age-gap romances, continued their accolades by giving Nicole Kidman the Best Actress award for her role in Halina Reijn’s sensual drama. Following her Volpi Cup win at Venice, she has been quietly collecting awards, and with the upcoming release of Babygirl during the holiday season, I anticipate more noise. Despite being a Christmas movie, it might be best to watch it alone rather than with family. If Kidman wins the Best Actress in a Drama Globe, she will enter the Oscar nominations with the strongest resume among all contenders.
Current Predix
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked; Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez; Angelina Jolie, Maria; Nicole Kidman, Babygirl; Mikey Madison, Anora
Best Supporting Actor
Up ⬆ Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
In a statement reminiscent of one written in January, Culkin clinched the NYFCC’s Supporting Actor award for his electrifying performance in “Real Pain”. This might signal a sweep by critics’ groups, although it wouldn’t shock me if other organizations consider Brian Cox’s role in “Succession” to be so securely nominated that they opt to look elsewhere.
Up ⬆ Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
Attending the Gothams in person offers the unique advantage of witnessing which actors attract the most attention from the audience. At the event, Maclin stood out exceptionally, with such a strong draw that he received a well-deserved standing ovation for his Supporting Performance award. (Interestingly, by the time I reached the after-party, he was already at the bar in casual attire.) Despite Colman Domingo’s impressive campaign efforts, Maclin has proven to be an even more impactful advocate – as a former student of the prison arts program who contributed significantly to the film creatively, he embodies the movie’s essence. Since July, he’s been tirelessly promoting his role, and given the compelling nature of his personal story, I find it challenging to imagine him being overlooked for recognition.
Current Predix
Yura Borisov, Anora; Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain; Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing; Guy Pearce, The Brutalist; Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Best Supporting Actress
Up ⬆ Carol Kane, Between the Temples
Ultimately, we reach a category that’s so unpredictable I know less about it now than I did a week ago. It didn’t help matters when the gender-neutral Gothams gave awards to men in every acting category. Occasionally, New York critics like to give an award to someone on the outskirts of the award discussion, a whimsical tradition they followed here by giving Kane their Supporting Actress prize for this summer’s Jewish age-gap romantic comedy. It seems Nicole Kidman isn’t the only one who can win a trophy for New MILF Cinema! This was a “one for us” pick by the NYFCC, but who knows, there’s no harm in letting Carol Kane make an acceptance speech.
Up ⬆ Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown
In the meantime, the National Board of Review assessed the 2024 film scene and bestowed Elle Fanning with their Supporting Actress honor for her role as a spurned girlfriend. However, this choice is somewhat perplexing: Although Fanning delivers a powerful performance in the movie, many critics favor Monica Barbaro’s portrayal of Joan Baez as the superior supporting actress. Does this imply that the award holds little significance? Or does it suggest that anything can happen in awards season? Ultimately, we await Monday’s Golden Globe nominations to bring more understanding to the situation.
Current Predix
Danielle Deadwyler in “The Piano Lesson”, Ariana Grande in “Wicked”, Felicity Jones in “The Brutalist”, Saoirse Ronan in “Blitz”, and Zoe Saldaña in “Emilia Pérez” – These talented actresses lend their skills to diverse roles in their respective productions.
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2024-12-07 17:54